Oil & Energy
The Gas Cartel Idea: On the Road To Another OPEC?
As oil sees its image tarnished from the disastrous oil spills that took place off the coast of the Gulf of Mexico and off the coast of Dalian, China, and as the most promising oil fields remain off limit to the Western oil majors, gas is gaining in popularity.
Gas is present in large quantities and in many countries of less questionable reputation such as in the United States and is also less harmful to the environment than oil. Though gas is not intended to replace oil, some gas-rich countries such as Russia and Iran are strongly advocating for a gas cartel to regulate the industry, which can explain the reluctance of Russia to adopt sanctions towards Iran at the United Nations as both countries heavily rely on the income generated by their natural resources.
When the 156th Meeting of the OPEC Conference ended in Vienna in March 2010, the idea of a gas cartel was still floating in the air. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is a 50 years old organization whose mission, according to Article 2 of its Statute, is to coordinate and unify the petroleum policies of its Member Countries and ensure the stabilization of oil markets in order to secure an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consumers, a steady income to producers and a fair return on capital for those investing in the petroleum industry.
Its members are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela.
In 2001 The Gas Exporting Countries Forum was established in Tehran, Iran. Though it isn’t an equivalent to OPEC, it is a venue for gas producing countries to meet. Its members are Algeria, Bolivia, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Russia, Trinidad and Tobago and Venezuela. Algeria, Iran, Nigeria, Qatar and Venezuela belong to both.
Interestingly, Russia is not part of OPEC as it never wanted any organization to monitor, control and regulate its output. In fact, Russia was taking advantage of OPEC self-imposed output reductions to increase its own output. In the second quarter of 2009, Russia exports rose to 7.4 million barrels per day against 7 billion barrels per day for Saudi Arabia.
What Benefits for Gas Users?
When the price of oil went skyrocketing OPEC did not react too promptly to alleviate the burden on oil consumers despite its stated commitment to economic supply to consumers. After all, every additional dollar to the price of a barrel results in billions in the bank at the end of the year for many oil-producing countries.
Few countries had excess capacity to offer to increase the offer in order to alleviate the out of control price escalation. Saudi Arabia, the only country that had then an excess capacity of about 2 million barrels per day and sufficient enough to cool down the market, dragged its feet when oil prices spiked out of control to reach almost $150 per barrel in the summer of 2008 and only released about 250,000 more barrels per day which did little at the time to put an end to this price inflation. In this context, one can wonder what gain end-users would get from the creation of a gas cartel operating in similar ways to OPEC.
Russia’s bad habits of cutting off gas when having disputes with its Ukrainian and Belarusian neighbors – through which transits respectively 80% and 20% of the gas going to Europe – has shown that Russia has no qualms about using energy as a political and economic pressure tool irrespective of the damage to its long-term public image.
Many member countries of OPEC are often the first ones to break the quotas such as Angola and Nigeria, the latter overproducing 300,000 barrels per day in December 2009. The result is that some countries end up having to produce more oil to offset the drop in price, pushing the price of oil further down. The lack of effective sanction mechanisms towards cheaters plagues OPEC and would probably plague a gas cartel, as no country would really want to be part of an organization sanctioning them too harshly.
It is also questionable to think that some countries would want any interference with what is for them a critical life supply of hard currency. For instance, Libya is known for doing what it feels like doing. Furthermore, it has signed some very promising contracts, notably with Italy to supply Europe via a Southern route that is very appealing to counterbalance the unpredictable Eastern route controlled by Russia.
Another country like Turkmenistan, said to hold the 4th or 5th largest world gas reserves has repeatedly put forward its neutrality status and would not want to get caught in political games that would undermine its status. Also, after having been heavily dependent on the goodwill of Russia and on the Gazprom pipelines for the transit of its gas to Europe, which was interrupted for nearly nine months in 2009, it is doubtful Turkmenistan would want to be told how much it could supply China, which became a leading client after the opening in 2010 of a new pipeline linking Turkmenistan to China via Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
Another factor to take into consideration is the huge infrastructure and equipment investments made by some countries to become leaders in the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) industry. LNG is a revolution in the energy industry as long pipelines are no longer part of the equation, except to bring LNG to the tankers. Some countries have become leaders such as Algeria, Libya and Qatar. Others, such as Australia, Egypt, Nigeria and Norway are building up their export capabilities.
Gas Cartel coming soon to town?
In light of the above it is very doubtful that a gas cartel as structured as OPEC will become a reality. The inability to strictly enforce quotas and to sanction wrongdoers is little incentive for any rule-abiding country to become a member. The prevalence of individual interests with some of its members not abiding by the rules and decisions of the cartel has weakened the organization.
Furthermore, though OPEC members hold two thirds of world reserves, they only account for less than 40% of world oil, enabling a lot of other players to have an impact on the oil scene outside the framework of OPEC. The Gas Exporting Countries Forum will remain, as it name states it a forum, but the creation of a legal structure is most doubtful and so is the ability of the existing members of the Forum to structure it into a well-operating international organization.
Bagley is Editor, US-based Global Intelligence Report
Michael Bagley
The Federal Government has expressed optimism in attracting more investments by International Oil Companies (IOCs) into Nigeria to foster growth and sustainability in the energy sector.
This is as some IOCs, particularly Shell and TotalEnergies, had announced plans to divest some of their assets from the country.
Recall that Shell in January, 2024 had said it would sell the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited (SPDC) to Renaissance.
According to the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, increasing investments by IOCs as well as boosting crude production to enhancing Nigeria’s position as a leading player in the global energy market, are the key objectives of the Government.
Lokpobiri emphasized the Ministry’s willingness to collaborate with State Governments, particularly Bayelsa State, in advancing energy sector transformation efforts.
The Minister, who stressed the importance of cooperation in achieving shared goals said, “we are open to partnerships with Bayelsa State Government for mutual progress”.
In response to Governor Douye Diri’s appeal for Ministry intervention in restoring the Atala Oil Field belonging to Bayelsa State, the Minister assured prompt attention to the matter.
He said, “We will look into the issue promptly and ensure fairness and equity in addressing state concerns”.
Lokpobiri explained that the Bayelsa State Governor, Douyi Diri’s visit reaffirmed the commitment of both the Federal and State Government’s readiness to work together towards a sustainable, inclusive, and prosperous energy future for Nigeria.
While speaking, Governor Diri commended the Minister for his remarkable performance in revitalisng the nation’s energy sector.
The Federal Government has assured investors in the nation’s gas sector of the security and safety of their investments.
Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, gave the assurance while hosting top officials of Shanghai Huayi Energy Chemical Company Group of China (HUAYI) and China Road and Bridge Corporation, who are strategic investors in Brass Methanol and Gas Hub Project in Bayelsa State.
The Minister in a statement stressed that Nigeria was open for investments and investors, insisting that present and prospective foreign investors have no need to entertain fear on the safety of their investment.
Describing the Brass project as one critical project of the President Bola Tinubu-led administration, Ekpo said.
“The Federal Government is committed to developing Nigeria’s gas reserves through projects such as the Brass Methanol project, which presents an opportunity for the diversification of Nigeria’s economy.
“It is for this and other reasons that the project has been accorded the significant concessions (or support) that it enjoys from the government.
“Let me, therefore, assure you of the strong commitment of our government to the security and safety of yours and other investments as we have continually done for similar Chinese investments in Nigeria through the years”, he added.
Ekpo further tasked investors and contractors working on the project to double their efforts, saying, “I want to see this project running for the good of Nigeria and its investors”.
Earlier in his speech, Leader of the Chinese delegation, Mr Zheng Bi Jun, said the visit to the country was to carry out feasibility studies for investments in methanol projects.
On his part, the Managing Director of Brass Fertiliser and Petrochemical Ltd, Mr Ben Okoye, expressed optimism in partnering with genuine investors on the project.
Crude oil prices recently logged their second monthly gain in a row as OPEC+ extended their supply curb deal until the end of Q2 2024.
The gains have been considerable, with WTI adding about $7 per barrel over the month of February.
Yet a lot of analysts remain bearish about the commodity’s prospects. In fact, they believe that there is enough oil supply globally to keep Brent around $81 this year and WTI at some $76.50, according to a Reuters poll.
Yet, like last year in U.S. shale showed, there is always the possibility of a major surprise.
According to the respondents in that poll, what’s keeping prices tame is, first, the fact that the Red Sea crisis has not yet affected oil shipments in the region, thanks to alternative routes.
The second reason cited by the analysts is OPEC+ spare capacity, which has increased, thanks to the cuts.
“Spare capacity has reached a multi-year high, which will keep overall market sentiment under pressure over the coming months”, senior analyst, Florian Grunberger, told Reuters.
The perception of ample spare capacity is definitely one factor keeping traders and analysts bearish as they assume this capacity would be put into operation as soon as the market needs it. This may well be an incorrect assumption.
Saudi Arabia and OPEC have given multiple signs that they would only release more production if prices are to their liking, and if cuts are getting extended, then current prices are not to OPEC’s liking yet.
There is more, too. The Saudis, which are cutting the most and have the greatest spare capacity at around 3 million barrels daily right now, are acutely aware that the moment they release additional supply, prices will plunge.
Therefore, the chance of Saudi cuts being reversed anytime soon is pretty slim.
Then there is the U.S. oil production factor. Last year, analysts expected modest output additions from the shale patch because the rig count remained consistently lower than what it was during the strongest shale boom years.
That assumption proved wrong as drillers made substantial gains in well productivity that pushed total production to yet another record.
Perhaps a bit oddly, analysts are once again making a bold assumption for this year: that the productivity gains will continue at the same rate this year as well.
The Energy Information Administration disagrees. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the authority estimated that U.S. oil output had reached a record high of 13.3 million barrels daily that in January fell to 12.6 million bpd due to harsh winter weather.
For the rest of the year, however, the EIA has forecast a production level remaining around the December record, which will only be broken in February 2025.
Oil demand, meanwhile, will be growing. Wood Mackenzie recently predicted 2024 demand growth at 1.9 million barrels daily.
OPEC sees this year’s demand growth at 2.25 million barrels daily. The IEA is, as usual, the most modest in its expectations, seeing 2024 demand for oil grow by 1.2 million bpd.
With OPEC+ keeping a lid on production and U.S. production remaining largely flat on 2023, if the EIA is correct, a tightening of the supply situation is only a matter of time. Indeed, some are predicting that already.
Natural resource-focused investors Goehring and Rozencwajg recently released their latest market outlook, in which they warned that the oil market may already be in a structural deficit, to manifest later this year.
They also noted a change in the methodology that the EIA uses to estimate oil production, which may well have led to a serious overestimation of production growth.
The discrepancy between actual and reported production, Goehring and Rozencwajg said, could be so significant that the EIA may be estimating growth where there’s a production decline.
So, on the one hand, some pretty important assumptions are being made about demand, namely, that it will grow more slowly this year than it did last year.
This assumption is based on another one, by the way, and this is the assumption that EV sales will rise as strongly as they did last year, when they failed to make a dent in oil demand growth, and kill some oil demand.
On the other hand, there is the assumption that U.S. drillers will keep drilling like they did last year. What would motivate such a development is unclear, besides the expectation that Europe will take in even more U.S. crude this year than it already is.
This is a much safer assumption than the one about demand, by the way. And yet, there are indications from the U.S. oil industry that there will be no pumping at will this year. There will be more production discipline.
Predicting oil prices accurately, even over the shortest of periods, is as safe as flipping a coin. With the number of variables at play at any moment, accurate predictions are usually little more than a fluke, especially when perceptions play such an outsized role in price movements.
One thing is for sure, though. There may be surprises this year in oil.
lrina Slav
Slav writes for Oilprice.com.
