Opinion
Lessons From Gaddafi’s Fall
The ousted Libyan leader, Col. Muammar Gaddafi once told the National Executive of Uganda’s ruling party – NRM that “Revolutionaries don’t retire”. Gaddafi said this while addressing delegates at the invitation of President Yoweri Museveni on 12th of May, 2001 at the International Conference Centre in Kampala.
In his own response, President Museveni described Gaddafi’s idea as “Food for Thought”. This has over the years influenced the decision of some African leaders to stay too long in power. To such leaders, incumbency has a special reward. An incumbent can beat his opponents using various means either through violence or constitutional means.
Col. Muammar Gaddafi toppled King Idris some 42 years ago. Since then, he has remained President and a Monarch over his people. For this long period, the people have been watching and waiting, and now they are saying, enough is enough.
Even when well meaning world leaders and organisations like the United Nations pleaded with Gaddafi to step down, his reaction was defiant. The blood of innocent people he shed 42 years ago appears to have entered his head. This is why he could roll out war tanks and jet fighters against the people he ruled for 42 years. He forgets former US John F. Kennedy’s warning that those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.
It will be recalled that Gaddafi had once declared war against the world’s super power, the United States of America. In December, 1985 the ELAL (Israel) Airline ticket counters in both Rome and Vienna were bombed simultaneously killing thirteen people, most of them Americans. International efforts to trace the financing and training facilities of the increasingly professional terrorists led to evidence that Libya and her fanatical leader, Muammar Gaddafi were responsible for the attack.
This made former US President Reagan to severe all official ties against the Libya. In return, Gaddafi threatened war with United States. For this reason, President Reagan called the Libyan leader “the Mad Dog of the Middle East” and ordered US bombers based to bomb Tripoli-the-capital of Libya. In a raid, a section of the city was bombed and Gaddafi’s headquarters was hit. Fifteen people were killed, including the fifteen-month-old daughter of Gaddafi.
Why most African leaders enjoy such show of power and want to answer president for life, baffles my imagination. Reasonable world leaders see it as madness.
Throughout the heydays of the obnoxious apartheid regime in South Africa, Nelson Mandela led the African National Congress against the whites who did not have regards for the Blacks. He was kept behind bars for 27 years for fighting against racism. Even when he was elected the first black president of his country after his release, Mandala declined a second term. He likened the presidency to another prison.
Thomas Jefferson, the third President of the United States between 1801 and 1809 also rejected a re-election bid. He wrote that “Never did a prisoner released from his chains feel such relief as I on shaking off the shackles of power. I thank God for the opportunity of retiring from them without censure, and carrying with me the most consoling proof of public approbation”.
William Howard Taft, the 27th President of United States, (1909 – 1913) is another example of exemplary leadership. He said that he found the presidency the “lonesomest place in the world.” President Taft achieved his greatest distinction as the only former president to be appointed Chief Justice of the United States between 1921 and 1930. These few examples have shown that there is nothing spectacular in remaining in power for two long, let alone forever.
Human beings naturally get tired of seeing the same face for too long, no matter your achievements.
Hanging onto power for too long is like wearing old clothes and shoes at all times. People get tired of wearing them and may abandon them in the wardrobes.
It is a common knowledge that no leader is indispensable. What is reasonable of a good leader is to leave while the ovation is loudest.
What is happening in Egypt and Libya right now is a clear signal that it is not good to hang on to power indefinitely. That the 83 year old President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt is now in court facing trial and that the strongman of Libya, Col. Muammar Gaddafi is now hiding in an unknown place, is a “Food for Thought”.
We only hope that other African leaders like, Jose Eduardo dos Santos of Angola, Teodoro Obinag Nguema of Equatorial Guinea, Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe and Yowei Museveni of Uganda would learn from the mistakes of Mubarak and Gaddafi and take the good step of Nelson Mandela, rather than wait to be kicked out.
Ichoku is a retired Director, Rivers State Ministry of Information.
Anthony Ichoku
From all indications, Nigeria possesses enough human and material resources to become a true economic powerhouse in Africa. According to the National Population Commission (NPC, 2023), the country’s population has grown steadily within the last decade, presently standing at about 220 million people—mostly young, vibrant, and innovative. Nigeria also remains the sixth-largest oil producer in the world, with enormous reserves of gas, fertile agricultural land, and human capital.
Yet, despite this enormous potential, the country continues to grapple with underdevelopment, poverty, unemployment, and insecurity. Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS, 2023) show that about 129 million Nigerians currently live below the poverty line. Most families can no longer afford basic necessities, even as the government continues to project a rosy economic picture.
The Subsidy Question
The removal of fuel subsidy in 2023 by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has been one of the most controversial policy decisions in Nigeria’s recent history. According to the president, subsidy removal was designed to reduce fiscal burden, unify the foreign exchange rate, attract investment, curb inflation, and discourage excessive government borrowing.
While these objectives are theoretically sound, the reality for ordinary Nigerians has been severe hardship. Fuel prices more than tripled, transportation costs surged, and food inflation—already high—rose above 30% (NBS, 2023). The World Bank (2023) estimates that an additional 7.1 million Nigerians were pushed into poverty after subsidy removal.
A Critical Economic View
As an economist, I argue that the problem was not subsidy removal itself—which was inevitable—but the timing, sequencing, and structural gaps in Nigeria’s implementation.
- Structural Miscalculation
Nigeria’s four state-owned refineries remain nonfunctional. By removing subsidies without local refining capacity, the government exposed the economy to import-price pass-through effects—where global oil price shocks translate directly into domestic inflation. This was not just a timing issue but a fundamental policy miscalculation.
- Neglect of Social Safety Nets
Countries like Indonesia (2005) and Ghana (2005) removed subsidies successfully only after introducing cash transfers, transport vouchers, and food subsidies for the poor (World Bank, 2005). Nigeria, however, implemented removal abruptly, shifting the fiscal burden directly onto households without protection.
- Failure to Secure Food and Energy Alternatives
Fuel subsidy removal amplified existing weaknesses in agriculture and energy. Instead of sequencing reforms, government left Nigerians without refinery capacity, renewable energy alternatives, or mechanized agricultural productivity—all of which could have cushioned the shock.
Political and Public Concerns
Prominent leaders have echoed these concerns. Mr. Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, described the subsidy removal as “good but wrongly timed.” Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party also faulted the government’s hasty approach. Human rights activists like Obodoekwe Stive stressed that refineries should have been made functional first, to reduce the suffering of citizens.
This is not just political rhetoric—it reflects a widespread economic reality. When inflation climbs above 30%, when purchasing power collapses, and when households cannot meet basic needs, the promise of reform becomes overshadowed by social pain.
Broader Implications
The consequences of this policy are multidimensional:
- Inflationary Pressures – Food inflation above 30% has made nutrition unaffordable for many households.
- Rising Poverty – 7.1 million Nigerians have been newly pushed into poverty (World Bank, 2023).
- Middle-Class Erosion – Rising transport, rent, and healthcare costs are squeezing household incomes.
- Debt Concerns – Despite promises, government borrowing has continued, raising sustainability questions.
- Public Distrust – When government promises savings but citizens feel only pain, trust in leadership erodes.
In effect, subsidy removal without structural readiness has widened inequality and eroded social stability.
Missed Opportunities
Nigeria’s leaders had the chance to approach subsidy removal differently:
- Refinery Rehabilitation – Ensuring local refining to reduce exposure to global oil price shocks.
- Renewable Energy Investment – Diversifying energy through solar, hydro, and wind to reduce reliance on imported petroleum.
- Agricultural Productivity – Mechanization, irrigation, and smallholder financing could have boosted food supply and stabilized prices.
- Social Safety Nets – Conditional cash transfers, food vouchers, and transport subsidies could have protected the most vulnerable.
Instead, reform came abruptly, leaving citizens to absorb all the pain while waiting for theoretical long-term benefits.
Conclusion: Reform With a Human Face
Fuel subsidy removal was inevitable, but Nigeria’s approach has worsened hardship for millions. True reform must go beyond fiscal savings to protect citizens.
Economic policy is not judged only by its efficiency but by its humanity. A well-sequenced reform could have balanced fiscal responsibility with equity, ensuring that ordinary Nigerians were not crushed under the weight of sudden change.
Nigeria has the resources, population, and resilience to lead Africa’s economy. But leadership requires foresight. It requires policies that are inclusive, humane, and strategically sequenced.
Reform without equity is displacement of poverty, not development. If Nigeria truly seeks progress, its policies must wear a human face.
References
- National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). (2023). Poverty and Inequality Report. Abuja.
- National Population Commission (NPC). (2023). Population Estimates. Abuja.
- World Bank. (2023). Nigeria Development Update. Washington, DC.
- World Bank. (2005). Fuel Subsidy Reforms: Lessons from Indonesia and Ghana. Washington, DC.
- OPEC. (2023). Annual Statistical Bulletin. Vienna.
By: Amarachi Amaugo