Oil & Energy
Nigeria Targets 40bn Barrels Oil Reserves
The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), says plans to grow the nation’s crude oil reserves to 40 billion barrels by the year 2020 have received a major boost.
The Group Managing Director of the NNPC, Dr Maikanti Baru, said this in Abuja last Thursday in a statement by the Corporation’s Group General Manager, Public Affairs Division, Mr Ndu Ughamadu,
Baru, at a tripartite signing of agreements, said this target would be realised between the NNPC/FIRST Exploration & Production Joint Venture (JV) and Schlumberger for the development of the Anyalu and Madu fields in the Niger Delta under Oil Mining Licence, OML 83 and OML 85, offshore Nigeria.
He explained that under the agreement, Schlumberger would provide the over $700 million development cost of the Anyala and Madu fields, which would generate 193 million barrels of crude oil into the current reserves of 37.2 billion barrels.
Also, an additional 800 billion cubic feet of gas would go into the nation’s proven gas reserves, which currently stand at 197 trillion cubic feet of gas.
“In terms of daily production, the fields will yield 50,000 barrels of crude oil per day and 120 million standard cubic feet of gas per day by early 2019.
“The approach to funding JV operations in response to the challenging economic environment was novel and aligned wholly with the government’s aspiration to increase crude oil and gas production, reserves growth and monetisation of the nation’s enormous gas resources.
“Apart from serving as a test case for future funding mechanism, the approach adopted was in sync with the realisation of the corporation’s 12 Business Focus Areas (BUFA), which is to ramp up crude oil production and reserves growth, amongst others.
“The projected increase in production of gas would come in handy as the Corporation strived to sustain the supply of gas to the existing power plants as well as the planned power projects billed to come on board within the period,” Baru said.
The Managing Director, FIRST E&P, Mr Ademola Adeyemi-Bero, who signed on behalf of FIRST E&P, remarked that, the partnership between the NNPC/FIRST E&P JV and Schlumberger would “infuse a novel asset development model which combines FIRST E&P’s local knowledge and market position as an indigenous operating company, with Schlumberger’s financing and broad technical capabilities”.
He added that, the joint project team would strengthen FIRST E&P’s project delivery abilities and the model would offer the upstream subsector a credible alternative funding and technical partnership model for growing production and adding reserves.
Also speaking, Mr Patrick Schorn, Vice-President, Schlumberger, who signed on behalf of Schlumberger traced the advent of the multi-national oil fields service company in Nigeria to the first commercial oil find in Oloibiri, when Schlumberger played a role in Shell’s drilling effort.
He noted that, the partnership with NNPC and FIRST E&P would provide Schlumberger the opportunity to leverage on its reservoir knowledge, oilfield services and project management expertise to lower development costs and maximise value for the partners.
The OMLs 83& 85 are in shallow waters 40 kilometres offshore in the Niger Delta.
NNPC holds 60 per cent interest in the licences while, FIRST E&P, the operator of the JV, holds the remaining 40 per cent interest.
Apart from providing funding for the development of the fields, Schlumberger would also provide other oilfield Services to the JV on a limited exclusive basis.
A joint project team would be established to drive technology transfer whilst leveraging on the global technical expertise of Schlumberger and the extensive local knowledge of the JV partners.
The Federal Government has expressed optimism in attracting more investments by International Oil Companies (IOCs) into Nigeria to foster growth and sustainability in the energy sector.
This is as some IOCs, particularly Shell and TotalEnergies, had announced plans to divest some of their assets from the country.
Recall that Shell in January, 2024 had said it would sell the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited (SPDC) to Renaissance.
According to the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, increasing investments by IOCs as well as boosting crude production to enhancing Nigeria’s position as a leading player in the global energy market, are the key objectives of the Government.
Lokpobiri emphasized the Ministry’s willingness to collaborate with State Governments, particularly Bayelsa State, in advancing energy sector transformation efforts.
The Minister, who stressed the importance of cooperation in achieving shared goals said, “we are open to partnerships with Bayelsa State Government for mutual progress”.
In response to Governor Douye Diri’s appeal for Ministry intervention in restoring the Atala Oil Field belonging to Bayelsa State, the Minister assured prompt attention to the matter.
He said, “We will look into the issue promptly and ensure fairness and equity in addressing state concerns”.
Lokpobiri explained that the Bayelsa State Governor, Douyi Diri’s visit reaffirmed the commitment of both the Federal and State Government’s readiness to work together towards a sustainable, inclusive, and prosperous energy future for Nigeria.
While speaking, Governor Diri commended the Minister for his remarkable performance in revitalisng the nation’s energy sector.
The Federal Government has assured investors in the nation’s gas sector of the security and safety of their investments.
Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, gave the assurance while hosting top officials of Shanghai Huayi Energy Chemical Company Group of China (HUAYI) and China Road and Bridge Corporation, who are strategic investors in Brass Methanol and Gas Hub Project in Bayelsa State.
The Minister in a statement stressed that Nigeria was open for investments and investors, insisting that present and prospective foreign investors have no need to entertain fear on the safety of their investment.
Describing the Brass project as one critical project of the President Bola Tinubu-led administration, Ekpo said.
“The Federal Government is committed to developing Nigeria’s gas reserves through projects such as the Brass Methanol project, which presents an opportunity for the diversification of Nigeria’s economy.
“It is for this and other reasons that the project has been accorded the significant concessions (or support) that it enjoys from the government.
“Let me, therefore, assure you of the strong commitment of our government to the security and safety of yours and other investments as we have continually done for similar Chinese investments in Nigeria through the years”, he added.
Ekpo further tasked investors and contractors working on the project to double their efforts, saying, “I want to see this project running for the good of Nigeria and its investors”.
Earlier in his speech, Leader of the Chinese delegation, Mr Zheng Bi Jun, said the visit to the country was to carry out feasibility studies for investments in methanol projects.
On his part, the Managing Director of Brass Fertiliser and Petrochemical Ltd, Mr Ben Okoye, expressed optimism in partnering with genuine investors on the project.
Crude oil prices recently logged their second monthly gain in a row as OPEC+ extended their supply curb deal until the end of Q2 2024.
The gains have been considerable, with WTI adding about $7 per barrel over the month of February.
Yet a lot of analysts remain bearish about the commodity’s prospects. In fact, they believe that there is enough oil supply globally to keep Brent around $81 this year and WTI at some $76.50, according to a Reuters poll.
Yet, like last year in U.S. shale showed, there is always the possibility of a major surprise.
According to the respondents in that poll, what’s keeping prices tame is, first, the fact that the Red Sea crisis has not yet affected oil shipments in the region, thanks to alternative routes.
The second reason cited by the analysts is OPEC+ spare capacity, which has increased, thanks to the cuts.
“Spare capacity has reached a multi-year high, which will keep overall market sentiment under pressure over the coming months”, senior analyst, Florian Grunberger, told Reuters.
The perception of ample spare capacity is definitely one factor keeping traders and analysts bearish as they assume this capacity would be put into operation as soon as the market needs it. This may well be an incorrect assumption.
Saudi Arabia and OPEC have given multiple signs that they would only release more production if prices are to their liking, and if cuts are getting extended, then current prices are not to OPEC’s liking yet.
There is more, too. The Saudis, which are cutting the most and have the greatest spare capacity at around 3 million barrels daily right now, are acutely aware that the moment they release additional supply, prices will plunge.
Therefore, the chance of Saudi cuts being reversed anytime soon is pretty slim.
Then there is the U.S. oil production factor. Last year, analysts expected modest output additions from the shale patch because the rig count remained consistently lower than what it was during the strongest shale boom years.
That assumption proved wrong as drillers made substantial gains in well productivity that pushed total production to yet another record.
Perhaps a bit oddly, analysts are once again making a bold assumption for this year: that the productivity gains will continue at the same rate this year as well.
The Energy Information Administration disagrees. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the authority estimated that U.S. oil output had reached a record high of 13.3 million barrels daily that in January fell to 12.6 million bpd due to harsh winter weather.
For the rest of the year, however, the EIA has forecast a production level remaining around the December record, which will only be broken in February 2025.
Oil demand, meanwhile, will be growing. Wood Mackenzie recently predicted 2024 demand growth at 1.9 million barrels daily.
OPEC sees this year’s demand growth at 2.25 million barrels daily. The IEA is, as usual, the most modest in its expectations, seeing 2024 demand for oil grow by 1.2 million bpd.
With OPEC+ keeping a lid on production and U.S. production remaining largely flat on 2023, if the EIA is correct, a tightening of the supply situation is only a matter of time. Indeed, some are predicting that already.
Natural resource-focused investors Goehring and Rozencwajg recently released their latest market outlook, in which they warned that the oil market may already be in a structural deficit, to manifest later this year.
They also noted a change in the methodology that the EIA uses to estimate oil production, which may well have led to a serious overestimation of production growth.
The discrepancy between actual and reported production, Goehring and Rozencwajg said, could be so significant that the EIA may be estimating growth where there’s a production decline.
So, on the one hand, some pretty important assumptions are being made about demand, namely, that it will grow more slowly this year than it did last year.
This assumption is based on another one, by the way, and this is the assumption that EV sales will rise as strongly as they did last year, when they failed to make a dent in oil demand growth, and kill some oil demand.
On the other hand, there is the assumption that U.S. drillers will keep drilling like they did last year. What would motivate such a development is unclear, besides the expectation that Europe will take in even more U.S. crude this year than it already is.
This is a much safer assumption than the one about demand, by the way. And yet, there are indications from the U.S. oil industry that there will be no pumping at will this year. There will be more production discipline.
Predicting oil prices accurately, even over the shortest of periods, is as safe as flipping a coin. With the number of variables at play at any moment, accurate predictions are usually little more than a fluke, especially when perceptions play such an outsized role in price movements.
One thing is for sure, though. There may be surprises this year in oil.
lrina Slav
Slav writes for Oilprice.com.