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As 2018 Winds UP: Nigerians Mourn Economy Under Buhari …Say 2019 Still Uncertain
Despite the rise in the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) at 61.1 index points for December 2018, as against 57.9 index points recorded in November, analysts say at the weekend that the outgoing year will not be forgotten in a hurry due to other negative indicators like high unemployment, dearth of credit by banks to critical sectors of the economy and high inflation in the midst of low purchasing power.
Bismarck Rewane, Chief Executive, Financial Derivatives Company’s December Lagos Business School’s publication sees 2019 as a year of “Trepidation and Growing Uncertainties,” adding that “The Nigerian economy may succumb to pressures of an oil price (down by 40%) to $53pb range and a cut in production to 1.67mbpd. The lower oil revenue and a growing deficit will erode the fiscal consolidation policies of the government.
With banking industry fragility and a naira under speculative pressure, 2019 will be a year of technological and investment opportunities but serious political and policy challenges.
The amicable settlement between Nigeria and MTN after an avoidable saga is a good way to end an eruptive year. A listing of MTN is the much needed booster shot the Nigerian stock market badly needs.”
According to the foremost economist, Nigeria’s 2019 election is being greeted with the classical reaction of an economic indifference curve, which is a combination of choices between commodity A and B which gives a consumer the same level of satisfaction or dissatisfaction.
‘Talking to a cross section of young people between the ages of 20 and 30, most respondents were unenthusiastic, indifferent and apathetic. Some considered it an Hobson’s choice. Based on this, we are anticipating voter apathy and a low turnout in the February election,’ he said.
Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Muda Yusuf, Director-General would like “foreign exchange management framework that reflects the market fundamentals, the acceleration of the economic diversification agenda, normalization of Lagos ports environment, the oil and gas sector reform, especially the petroleum industry bill; better debt management strategy to ease the burden of debt service, reduction in the cost of governance at all levels; improvements in the domestic revenue (particularly independent revenue) to reduce volatilities in government revenues,” in the new year.
President of the Nigerian Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA), Dr Mohammed Yinusa says the implementation of Nigeria’s 2018 budget, benchmarked at $60 per barrel could also suffer should the slump persist in the oil price at the international market persists.
Consequently, Yinusa says, “Nigeria’s economy which is currently stabilising on boost in crude oil price, could be adversely affected as crisis in foreign exchange, primarily sourced from the oil sector was projected to worsen.”
Yusuf believes that the non-passage of the Electoral Act and Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB), are considered as sore points for the economy and polity, adding, the “downstream sector as currently constituted is unstructured and largely uncompetitive.”
In the last quarter of this year, the globa oil industry witnessed steady decline in prices of crude oil prompting several oil producing countries especially OPEC to consider production cuts.
In fact, OPEC, Russia and other producers have agreed to remove 1.2 million barrels per day from the market beginning in January. Consequently, some observers also said price volatility in 2019 may be inevitable considering the conflicting priorities of the three top world producers, namely the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia.
The move follows a more than 30 percent drop in oil prices that saw international benchmark, the Brent crude, fall from more than $86 a barrel to a 13-month low of $57.50 last month.
Apart from the downward movement in the international prices of crude oil in the outgoing year,2018 witnessed a mixed feeling among the stakeholders in the country’s oil and gas industry.
Muda Yusuf said data from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) shows that oil prices are trending down at $54 p/bl on 22nd December 2018 from its peak of $88p/bl in the month of September and October 2018.
He said this is already below 2019-2021 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and 2019 budget benchmark of $60p/bl. The declining global oil price will likely distort FG’s economic projections for 2019 as well as impact adversely on its MTEF if the trend is not reversed.
Consequently, Yususf said in 2018, the oil and gas industry was characterized by weak incentive regime to facilitate the penetration of the use of cooking gas in the country as well as high cost of the LG equipment as result of high import tariff. He also said the industry was characterized by the discriminatory VAT imposed on the locally sourced LPG, while imported LPG does not attract VAT.
“Petroleum subsidy debts and non-payment of interest rate and exchange rate differentials to oil marketers is affecting the ability of the oil marketers to meet up with their financial obligations with the banks. This is also having a multiplier effect on the revenue of the banks/lenders. It also has implications for the stability of the banking system and the growth of non-performing loans in the financial system,” he added.
A banker and chieftain of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Dr John Ayuba says the failure of government to provide the much needed enabling environment led to the drought of Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs).
At the home front, Ayuba said the economy did not fare betther as local investors were hounded with harsh and vindictive policies.
According to him, the economy needs a leaders with business acumen and who understands and with a face of business.
Chief executive of Abuja based Muregi Associates, Dr. Husseini Mohammed in his response to inquiry titles his submission “Economic Annus Horriblis.”
As the above indicates, Commenting or writing in assessing the Economic situation of the country in 2018 is not farfetched considering a number of factors, namely, Inflation, Unemployment, Manufacturing, Private Sector Performance and indeed the overall activities of the socioeconomic indicators all proved by and large negative.
Manufacturing sector, which is the engine of economic growth in terms of Capacity utilization, was too low and generally considered unacceptable or unrealistic for any meaningful economic growth. In a way it wouldn’t be out of place to conclude that, the year 2018 is what in Latin we call “Annus Horriblis”.
On the expectations for next year, he said, “we need to be cautious because the current budget of N8.83 Trillion Naira with a production of 2.3 barrel and a benchmark of $60per barrels is already questionable by the current sport market of $53 per barrels and OPEC’S cut in our production to a mere 1.93 barrels.
For the Economy to turn around, we must look inwards in the development of Agriculture and other allied resources with a major emphasis on the small-scale industries as enablers.
Leadership is everything, election is just about a month away, therefore, whoever emerges as the president be it the current leadership or the PDP leadership will have Herculean task in managing the state of affairs of the country.”
Engineer Martin Onovo told our correspondent that the “year, just like the previous years under the current administration, didn’t witness salutary growth because the handlers of the country have no idea of how to pilot it let alone functionalize the nation’s section.
He said the development explains the lingering crisis of confidence between the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Ibe Kachikwu and the group managing director of the Nigerian National Petroleum Resources (NNPC),Maikanti Baru, fuel subsidy payment, corruption and all other inherent infractions which ordinarily should have fizzled out given the right leadership.”
On power situation some analysts say despite the recent claim by the country’s Power Minister, Babatunde Fashola, that the current administration has taken power situation to the next level, the Senior Staff Association of Electricity and Allied Companies(SSEAC) and critical stakeholders felt the minister played to the gallery .
National president of the Union, Comrade Chris Okonkwo told newsmen that Nigeria didn’t achieve any substantial growth in the power sector in 2018,adding that the power distribution companies had a field day by imposing estimated billings on customers, denying them prepaid meters and shunning investment in infrastructure that could boost power supply in the country.
A leader of a pressure group organization in Lagos, Comrade Chinedu Bosah corroborated Okonkwo’s position, saying the claim of improved power supply by the current government in 2018 is a mere political gimmick
Consequently, President of the Nigerian Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA), Dr. Yinusa, has recommended that government should see to a logical conclusion its power sector reforms to deliver stable power supply to the populace, while priority should be given to the rehabilitation of deplorable road networks while constructing additional ones across the nation.
He said: “There is the need for close monitoring and regulation of the activities of road concessionaires to ensure optimum benefits from such concessions. The transportation and haulage system is virtually road dependent. This is not good for the economy.
“Development of alternative transport system, particularly the water transport, railway, both intra and interstate, should be accorded high priority.
“We recognise the efforts of government in respect of its rail modernisation programme and recommend that the programme should be accelerated in view of its centrality to the growth of internal trade and industrial competitiveness.”
With the upcoming general elections, he advised Government not to focus solely on politics at the expense of the economy and good governance, but continue to work assiduously to sustain the steady stabilisation of our economy through informed policies to position it for continued growth.
However, on the anti-graft war, the government, according to some analysts was able to change the status quo to an extent, as they all agree that it became obvious that there was a new sherrif in town.
Indeed, one of the landmark strategies initiated by the government was the Whistle-blower policy, which, according to the government, has yielded several recoveries, including, N13.8 billion from tax evaders and N7.8 billion, $378 million, £27,800 in recoveries from public officials targeted by whistleblowers.
It also said the National Economic Council (NEC), under the Chairmanship of Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, approved the audit of key federal revenue generating agencies, which has so far yielded a total sum of N526 billion and $21 billion. The money was underpaid to the Federation Account between 2010 and 2015.
However, while the ruling APC goes to the 2019 polls with some of these achievements, many believe the government may have fallen short of great expectations Nigerians including improving their living standards. But, rather, what they have experienced in the last twelve months was more of despondency and hopelessness
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Arson: Those Behind It’ll Account For Atrocities -Fubara …Swears In Bipi, Three Others As Commissioners
Rivers State Governor, Sir Siminalayi Fubara, has said that his administration will not fold its hands and watch sponsored political thugs run berserk, committing arson in the State.
The Governor, therefore, assured that, working with the Nigerian Police Force and the Directorate of State Services (DSS), measures will be taken to unravel those behind the recent burning of council Secretariats at Ikwerre, Emohua and Eleme Local Government areas, with a view to making them account for their atrocities.
Governor Fubara gave the assurance while swearing in four new commissioners into the Rivers State Executive Council at Government House in Port Harcourt yestersday.
Those sworn in are Hon. Israel Lebura Ngbuelu, PhD; Hon. Evans Bapakaye Bipi; Barrister Otamiri John Ngubo; and Hon. Barrister Benibo Anabraba.
Governor Fubara recalled mentioning when he sworn-in newly elected Local Government Councils’ Chairmen on 6th October, 2024, that there was intelligence on planned mayhem by misguided persons, who had threatened to prevent the elected officers from resuming duties.
True to it, Governor Fubara said, the sponsored political thugs hatched their plans, and burnt valued buildings at some council secretariats.
He said, “I said it before it happened. I knew because they were unhappy, they would go extra miles to create disaffection in the minds and hearts of the good people of Rivers State.
“We want to also let the people know that what has happened (arson) after the election, we are not going to allow it to go uninvestigated.
“A similar event had happened in this manner before, and after some weeks, some of our supporters were declared wanted in order to turn the story around.
“But this time around, I strongly believe, with the support and cooperation of the Nigerian Police and the Directorate of State Services (DSS), we will unravel those behind the assault and make sure that they account for their atrocities.”
Governor Fubara expressed appreciation for the show of patience and calmness by majority of Rivers people despite the fact that they are angry with the reckless acts of the misguided miscreants.
The Governor said he has continued to show leadership, provided the climate that has engendered productive endeavours, and will not mislead those he is leading.
“As your leader; the one steering the ship, I assure you I will not mislead anyone of you. I still stand on the path of peace. We have cases of arson in some local government areas.
“But, I appreciate your calmness. I have always maintained that we are going to be the greatest losers, if we meet them force-for-force. We need to go with peace.
“So, I will encourage everyone of you not to follow them with violence. We are carrying a basket of precious eggs in our hands. So, we need to follow them with carefulness and wisdom.”
Governor Fubara reiterated what he said the previous day on what should matter most for Rivers State, which is a firm support to ensure that the progress of Nigeria is sustained.
He said, if oil theft is not checked, the country’s economy will be badly impacted, and there will not be funds to address critical issues.
“We are in a situation where the fund that is being generated from oil production is not sufficient to tackle the challenges of Nigeria, and every hand has to be on deck to make sure that there is increase in production.
“Our focus here, not minding the distractions, will be how to provide support. You have to work with us to make sure that we curb this issue of oil theft and pipeline vandalisation.
“This is the only way that the allowances (revenue) will increase and more will also come to our State, and more progress will also be achieved in this State.”
Governor Fubara explained that his administration is doing a lot for the good people of the State, that are not being seen because of the political drama that takes their attention away.
He, however, said that his administration is working out modalities, and will soon choose a day, which could probably be before the end of October, 2024, to showcase a few projects and services that have positively impacted lives in the State.
Governor Fubara congratulated the newly sworn-in commissioners for making it into the Rivers State Executive Council.
He explained that more persons whose loyalty are for Rivers people and the administration needed to be admitted into the Rivers State Executive Council to help drive the policy of government because they will not resign their appointment.
Governor Fubara said: “We want to be sure, at this point, who we are adding into the Council, so that we will not wake up one morning and see resignation letter. So, we are taking our time.
“And usually, after a normal political period, there used to be what we call balancing. So, I can also say that the new Commissioners that are coming in are coming from their zones to also balance the political equation.”
Governor Fubara charged them to be dedicated, forthright, diligent and productive while rendering quality services to the State.
The Governor said he believed in their capacity to deliver because of their exposure to the workings of government, and expressed the hope that they will contribute positively to the success of the administration.
He said, “So, let me thank everyone of you. Let me also use this opportunity to thank the good people of Rivers State for their support, and to assure them that we will continue to defend, protect the interest of Rivers people.
“I want to thank everyone of you for your support, more especially before, during and after the elections. I appreciate your doggedness, your belief in our course to salvage this State, to protect the integrity of this State,” he added.
Head of Civil Service of the Federation (HoCSF), Mrs Didi Walson-Jack, has sought media support to fast-track the implementation of the ongoing reforms in the civil service sector.
Walson-Jack made the request during a cocktail organised by her office for media executives from different organisations in Abuja.
The event, according to her, aimed at interacting with the media men one-on-one, appreciate them and implore them to continue to strengthen the bond with the office.
“I want to start by thanking each and everyone of you for honouring this invitation. I want to say that we purposely designed this grail cocktail so that we can have one-on-one interactions.
“Let me also go ahead to thank you for all the supports you have given to the Office of the Head of the Civil Service of the Federation (HCSF) in the years past I know that the Fourth Estate of the realm has always supported this office.
“I will also go ahead to thank you for your support, especially at my announcement as the HoCSF and that support has continued, up till date.
“We, therefore, thought it fit that we should organise this event just to interact with you to strengthen the bond that this office has with the media, “ she said.
The HoCSF recalled that her office had continued with programmes she met on ground upon assumption of office, especially the ongoing reforms on Federal Civil Service Strategy and Implementation Plan (FCSSIP- 2022 to 2025).
She, therefore, appealed to the media for continuous reportage on the initiative, so as to give it the necessary publicity for proper dissemination to the citizens.
“You will recall that the office has the Federal Civil Service Strategy and Implementation Plan (FCSSIP- 2022 to 2025) and that is the plan that we are still driving.
“We want to request that you collaborate more with us, we are asking that the friendship, the partnership go beyond what it is now to ensure that the reforms which this office is driving get the full publicity it requires,” she said.
Walson-Jack used the medium to announce the preparation to re-introduce the civil service national anthem officially for the entire civil servants to recite at every national programme.
“The anthem has been re-introduced to drive the reforms and it’s expected that the anthem will be sung by all federal civil/public servants and indeed Nigerians.
“And it will be an anthem that will encourage every public servants to be efficient, productive, incorruptible and citizen-centred, “ she added.
Participants at the event congratulated Mrs Walson-Jack for her uplifting to the position of the HoCSF and pledged to continue in the relationship.
In a response, Mr Ephraims Sheyin, Editor-in-Chief, News Agency of Nigeria (NAN), pledged the agency’s readiness to give the HoCSF the needed support.
According to him, supporting government policies has always been NAN’ priority as government’s owned media organisation.
“You can take it for granted that we are going to give the Office total support. It is part of our own mandates to support Federal Government policies, so we are going to do that fully for the head of service.
“As she said, she has her policies which are in tandem with the federal government policies, she is asking for the support in implementation of the Federal Government policies.
“She has very lofty ideas, she has lofty things that she believes that we should do. Our job is to make sure that whatever government wants to do, we have to support such policies, “ he said.
Speaking in the same vein, Mrs Halima Musa, Director News, NTA, assured her office’s partnership with the Head of service towards ensuring communicating the needed values on excellence, incorruptibility and new culture of efficiency to the public.
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LG Polls: Rogue Policemen Break RSIEC Gate, Strong Room To Steal Electoral Materials …Fubara Foils Attempt To Cart Away Materials
Rivers State Governor, Sir Siminalayi Fubara has foiled an attempt by the Nigerian Police, led by the Deputy Commissioner of Police (Operations), to take over the Rivers State Independent Electoral Commission (RSIEC) at 1am on Friday, 4th October, 2024.
The rogue policemen were said to have attempted to scale through the gates and strong room of the Commission to cart away sensitive Electoral materials meant for the conduct of Saturday’s local government election in the State.
The deployment was said to have been ordered by the Inspector-General of Police.
However, the evil plots of the rogue policemen and DC Ops were botched when vigilant security officials alerted principal officers of the Commission and relevant government authorities, who immediately informed the Governor of the development.
The Governor immediately led a team of government officials, lawmakers from the National Assembly and State House of Assembly, top political stakeholders, and other leaders to storm the facility.
Addressing newsmen in front of RSIEC Office on Aba Road in Port Harcourt, after an encounter with the rogue policemen, the State Governor, Sir Siminalayi Fubara condemned the conduct of the policemen on illegal duty, saying that the IGP was taking his friendship with some Abuja-based politicians too far.
He restated the position that the attempt to surreptitiously withdraw policemen already deployed to protect the facility, and replace them with a detachment from a neighbouring State was unacceptable.
He reminded the IGP that local government election was the internal affairs of states, and advised him to allow the federation unit conduct its affairs without interference.
At present, the Chief of Staff, the Speaker of the Rivers State House of Assembly, and State and National Assembly members, alongside other stakeholders, are manning the RSIEC office to ensure that the rogur policemen in two trucks and two Hilux vehicles do not return and that elections will go ahead as scheduled on Saturday.