World
Why World Can’t Quit Fossil Fuels
Have the recent pronouncements of the death of oil and reigning renewables been more rhetoric than reality? Yes and no. It’s true that peak oil is now closer than ever, and globally we’re seeing a more earnest effort to decarbonize than ever before, in large part thanks to green stimulus packages for post-COVID economic recovery.
But for all of the advances that green energy is making around the world, it’s just not enough to achieve the kind of greenhouse gas emissions reductions necessary to curb the impact of climate change. In fact, it’s not even close.
This week Axios reported on the “chasm between CO2 goals and energy production,” saying that “projected and planned levels of global oil, natural gas and coal production are way out of step with the kind of emissions cuts needed to hold global warming significantly in check.” This reporting is based on a brand new study.
The second annual “Production Gap Report” is the continuation of a project developed in collaboration with the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The 2020 report was put together by the UN, the Stockholm Environment Institute, the International Institute for Sustainable Development, the Overseas Development Institute and the climate think tank E3G.
The purpose of the report, which is modelled after and alongside UNEP’s Emissions Gap Reports is to synthesize and communicate “the large discrepancy between countries’ planned fossil fuel production and the global production levels necessary to limit warming to 1.5°C and 2°C.” And, as it turns out, that discrepancy is still quite large, even after the COVID-19 pandemic took a huge bite out of fossil fuel demand and the oil and gas industry as a whole.
The report calculates the emissions that will be released from fuel combustion over the next calendar year based on projections and extrapolations of all the countries of the worlds’ planned and estimated fossil fuel extraction. The prognosis is grim.
While meeting the Paris climate accord goal of limiting and maintaining long-term global warming to just 1.5° Celsius over pre-industrial temperature averages would require the global community to reduce fossil fuel production by a full 6 percent each year over the course of the next decade, right now most countries are reaching toward a reduction goal of just 2 percent less than half of what is needed.
Despite the fact that all 196 members of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) signed onto the Paris Agreement, according to the 2020 Production Gap report, “countries are instead planning and projecting an average annual increase of 2 percent, which by 2030 would result in more than double the production consistent with the 1.5°C limit.”
While the world is heading in the right direction overall to bring down greenhouse gas emissions on the eve of catastrophic climate change, it simply isn’t doing so with enough urgency. For example, while coal has had an especially rough year and seems to be on its very last legs as an industry, it would need to see a whopping 11 percent production cut every year until 2030 to comply with the 1.5°C pathway. It’s hard to see that happening when countries like China are falling back on coal in times of economic and energy insecurity.
Similarly, while OPEC+ is mulling over the idea of extending production cuts to keep oil prices afloat during this extended oil demand downturn, it would be shortsighted and naive to think that means the end of oil is upon us. While we may very well be living in the era of peak oil, that is a far cry from seeing a 6 percent annual decrease of the fuel that still overwhelmingly powers the global economy.
Ultimately, in spite of all the lofty rhetoric, “the pandemic-related production declines this year won’t lead to the long-term changes needed to get on track toward those temperature targets.” For that we need human intervention and intentional economic and political restructuring, not just viral disruption.
Zaremba first published this piece in the London-based Oilprice.com
News
Russia’s Biggest Strike On Kyiv Kills Nine
Russia attacked Kyiv yesterday with an hour-long barrage of missiles and drones, killing nine people and injuring more than 70.
This was said to be the deadliest assault on the Ukrainian capital since July 2024, and just as peace efforts are coming to a head.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said after the attack, that he was cutting short his official trip to South Africa and returning home as the city reeled from the bombardment that kept residents on edge for about 11 hours.
Zelenskyy said this appeared to be Russia’s biggest attack on Kyiv in nine months and called it one of Russia’s “most outrageous.’’
The attack drew a rare rebuke of Russian President Vladimir Putin from United States. President Donald Trump, who said he was “not happy” with it.
“Not necessary, and terrible timing. Vladimir, STOP!” Trump wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social.
However, senior Untied States. officials have warned that the Trump administration could soon give up its efforts to stop the war if the two sides do not compromise.
Kyiv Mayor Vitalii Klitschko announced that Friday would be an official day of mourning in the capital.
The Ukrainian air force said Russia fired 66 ballistic and cruise missiles, four plane-launched air-to-surface missiles, and 145 Shahed and decoy drones at Kyiv and four other regions of Ukraine.
Rescue workers with flashlights scoured the charred rubble of partly collapsed homes as the blue lights of emergency vehicles lit up the dark city streets.
The attack came as weeks of peace negotiations appeared to culminate without an agreement.
Reports also said the attack came hours after Trump lashed out at Zelenskyy.
Trump had accused him of prolonging the “killing field” by refusing to surrender the Russia-occupied Crimea Peninsula as part of a possible deal.
World
UN marks 50 years of Biological Weapons Convention
The UN on Wednesday marked the 50th anniversary of the entry into force of the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) – the first multilateral disarmament treaty to ban an entire category of weapons of mass destruction
The UN’s High Representative for Disarmament Affairs, Izumi Nakamitsu. in a statement, said that the world came together 50 years ago to ban biological weapons,.
She noted that in today’s volatile geopolitical climate we can ill-afford to let this moral safeguard “erode”,
Disarmament chief Izumi Nakamitsu told Member States in Geneva that the BWC “remains a testament to the conscience of humankind”. Yet as technology evolves, so too do potential risks.
“We must ensure the instruments of the 20th century can respond to today’s global 21st century challenges,” Nakamitsu said.
In his message, the Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres urged all States parties to actively participate in the Working Group on Strengthening the BWC – which verifies compliance, capacity-building and assistance – and called on the Group to accelerate its efforts in this milestone year.
“These efforts reinforce the commitment in the Pact for the Future, adopted at the United Nations last year, for all countries to pursue a world free of biological weapons,” he said.
Guterres hailed the Convention as a cornerstone of international peace and security, having contributed over five decades to “collective efforts to reject the use of disease as a weapon.”
Today, 188 countries are party to the convention, which effectively prohibits the development, production, acquisition, transfer, stockpiling and use of biological and toxin weapons.
The BWC stands as a safeguard, ensuring that advances in biology and biotechnology are used solely for “peaceful purposes” – and not to trigger artificial epidemics that threaten us all.
While the vast majority of UN Member States have joined the convention, nine countries remain outside.
The secretary-general called on those governments to ratify the treaty without delay.
UN disarmament affairs office, UNODA, is working to support the convention’s implementation – especially in Africa where it has engaged 100 young scientists through the Youth for Biosecurity Fellowship in the last five years.
“Together, let us stand united against biological weapons,” the secretary-general said.
As the world grapples with new global health challenges and geopolitical uncertainty, the BWC remains a vital barrier against the misuse of science.
Reinforcing it, the UN chief said, is essential to prevent biological weapons from ever being used again – whether in conflict, acts of terror, or by accident.
NAN reports that the BWC currently has 187 states-parties, including Palestine, and four signatories (Egypt, Haiti, Somalia, and Syria).
The 10 states that have neither signed nor ratified the BWC are Chad, Comoros, Djibouti, Eritrea, Israel, Kiribati, Micronesia, Namibia, South Sudan, and Tuvalu.
World
Zimbabwean Elected First Female IOC President
Kirsty Coventry hopes her election as the first female and African president of the International Olympic Committee, IOC, beating six male candidates including Britain’s Lord Coe, sends a powerful signal.
The 41-year-old former swimmer, who won two Olympic gold medals, secured a majority of 49 of the 97 available votes in the first round of yesterday’s election, while World Athletics boss Coe won just eight.
Zimbabwe’s sports minister Coventry will replace Thomas Bach, who has led the IOC since 2013, on 23 June and be the youngest president in the organisation’s 130-year history.
Her first Olympics will be the Milan-Cortina Winter Games in February 2026.
“It’s a really powerful signal. It’s a signal that we’re truly global and that we have evolved into an organisation that is truly open to diversity and we’re going to continue walking that road in the next eight years,” Coventry said.
Runner-up Juan Antonio Samaranch Jr won 28 votes while France’s David Lappartient and Japan’s Morinari Watanabe earned four votes each. Prince Feisal al Hussein of Jordan and Sweden’s Johan Eliasch both took two.
Coventry, who already sits on the IOC executive board and was said to be Bach’s preferred candidate, is the 10th person to hold the highest office in sport and will be in post for at least the next eight years.
Coventry has won seven of Zimbabwe’s eight Olympic medals – including gold in the 200m backstroke at both the 2004 and 2008 Games.
“The young girl who first started swimming in Zimbabwe all those years ago could never have dreamed of this moment,” said Coventry.
“I am particularly proud to be the first female IOC president, and also the first from Africa.
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