Oil & Energy
Ukraine War May Result In 1m Bpd In Local Oil Demand Shirtage
War in Ukraine could result in as much as 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil demand being removed from the global market, Rystad Energy research shows.
The human and material costs of the conflict have been catastrophic just seven days into the military operation.
Russia has so far shown no signs of backing down, and prospects of a breakthrough in negotiations appear slim. As a result, investors and markets are scrambling to assess the ramifications of the worsening crisis as the West slaps even more stringent sanctions on Russia, while institutions and companies distance themselves from Moscow.
Oil demand in both Ukraine and Russia is set to plunge if an end to the conflict does not materialize quickly. Ukraine is likely to see the largest drop in relative terms, potentially losing more than 50% of demand so long as the war persists, with long-term implications inevitable due to infrastructure damage and the speed of getting facilities back online once the conflict has come to an end.
Russia also stands to suffer significantly, although the impact in relative terms will be less. The direct and indirect sanctions imposed by the West on Russia’s financial system will reduce economic activity significantly, complicating the process for Russian companies to conduct business internationally and for its citizens to travel abroad.
That could result in an oil demand destruction of between 15% and 30% or more.
“The economic fallout from the war – in addition to the humanitarian crisis – is going to be sweeping, both for Russia and Ukraine, and the region’s oil demand is going to take a severe hit if the conflict is prolonged and recently enacted sanctions remain in place,” says Sofia Guidi Di Sante, oil market analyst with Rystad Energy.
Ukraine outlook
Total oil demand in Ukraine averaged around 260,000 bpd in 2019, with the road transport sector accounting for more than half of the total, at 138,000 bpd. Aviation demand is minimal, representing 5% of total consumption and estimated at 7,000 bpd in 2019.
Aviation demand was wiped out almost immediately as airports closed and flights were grounded. However, road traffic has remained high, sustained by heavy traffic as residents drive out of the country. The spike in traffic to the border compensates for the fall in commutes elsewhere and other regular activities.
Yet, if the war drags on and fighting continues, demand could fall by 50% or more. Such a drop in road and air traffic alone will shave off around 65,000 bpd of oil demand, which is 28% of expected monthly oil consumption for the country.
In addition, disruptions in the supply chain and the impact on gross domestic product (GDP) growth would harm other sectors, where we factor in a potential additional estimated impact of 40,000 bpd.
This would amount to about 50% of Ukraine’s oil demand, an estimate aligned with the demand drop witnessed in other countries.
The international response to Russia’s actions has been swift and powerful. Financial markets are volatile as a result, and it will not take long for the trickle-down effects of sanctions to take hold of the country’s economy.
Russia is the sixth-largest oil consumer globally, with oil demand totaling 3.6 million bpd in 2019, and a slowdown in consumption would have severe domestic and international consequences, affecting global balances.
The European Union (EU) and Canada have already shut their airspace to Russian planes, and international travel demand is expected to drop swiftly in the coming days.
A complete halt in international travel would wipe out 54% of the country’s total jet fuel demand, amounting to a negative impact of around 110,000 bpd.
Although it is too early to estimate the impact of international sanctions against Russia on oil demand, we can gain an insight by considering the demand realities from countries with recent experience of similar sanctions – Iran and Venezuela.
Oil demand dropped in these countries by a range of between 10% (Iran) and more than 30% (Venezuela), with the extreme case of a 50% drop between the peak and trough in Venezuelan demand from 2011 to 2019.
A 10% to 30% drop in Russian demand would correspond to a total contraction of 350,000 to 1 million bpd in 2022. We expect that half of that deceleration would be from industrial activities, while the rest would be driven by reduced internal mobility, although it is too early to make a sectoral assessment.
By: Rystad Energy
Rystad Energy oilprice.com
Oil & Energy
FG Woos IOCs On Energy Growth
The Federal Government has expressed optimism in attracting more investments by International Oil Companies (IOCs) into Nigeria to foster growth and sustainability in the energy sector.
This is as some IOCs, particularly Shell and TotalEnergies, had announced plans to divest some of their assets from the country.
Recall that Shell in January, 2024 had said it would sell the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited (SPDC) to Renaissance.
According to the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, increasing investments by IOCs as well as boosting crude production to enhancing Nigeria’s position as a leading player in the global energy market, are the key objectives of the Government.
Lokpobiri emphasized the Ministry’s willingness to collaborate with State Governments, particularly Bayelsa State, in advancing energy sector transformation efforts.
The Minister, who stressed the importance of cooperation in achieving shared goals said, “we are open to partnerships with Bayelsa State Government for mutual progress”.
In response to Governor Douye Diri’s appeal for Ministry intervention in restoring the Atala Oil Field belonging to Bayelsa State, the Minister assured prompt attention to the matter.
He said, “We will look into the issue promptly and ensure fairness and equity in addressing state concerns”.
Lokpobiri explained that the Bayelsa State Governor, Douyi Diri’s visit reaffirmed the commitment of both the Federal and State Government’s readiness to work together towards a sustainable, inclusive, and prosperous energy future for Nigeria.
While speaking, Governor Diri commended the Minister for his remarkable performance in revitalisng the nation’s energy sector.
Oil & Energy
Your Investment Is Safe, FG Tells Investors In Gas
The Federal Government has assured investors in the nation’s gas sector of the security and safety of their investments.
Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, gave the assurance while hosting top officials of Shanghai Huayi Energy Chemical Company Group of China (HUAYI) and China Road and Bridge Corporation, who are strategic investors in Brass Methanol and Gas Hub Project in Bayelsa State.
The Minister in a statement stressed that Nigeria was open for investments and investors, insisting that present and prospective foreign investors have no need to entertain fear on the safety of their investment.
Describing the Brass project as one critical project of the President Bola Tinubu-led administration, Ekpo said.
“The Federal Government is committed to developing Nigeria’s gas reserves through projects such as the Brass Methanol project, which presents an opportunity for the diversification of Nigeria’s economy.
“It is for this and other reasons that the project has been accorded the significant concessions (or support) that it enjoys from the government.
“Let me, therefore, assure you of the strong commitment of our government to the security and safety of yours and other investments as we have continually done for similar Chinese investments in Nigeria through the years”, he added.
Ekpo further tasked investors and contractors working on the project to double their efforts, saying, “I want to see this project running for the good of Nigeria and its investors”.
Earlier in his speech, Leader of the Chinese delegation, Mr Zheng Bi Jun, said the visit to the country was to carry out feasibility studies for investments in methanol projects.
On his part, the Managing Director of Brass Fertiliser and Petrochemical Ltd, Mr Ben Okoye, expressed optimism in partnering with genuine investors on the project.
Oil & Energy
Oil Prices Record Second Monthly Gain
Crude oil prices recently logged their second monthly gain in a row as OPEC+ extended their supply curb deal until the end of Q2 2024.
The gains have been considerable, with WTI adding about $7 per barrel over the month of February.
Yet a lot of analysts remain bearish about the commodity’s prospects. In fact, they believe that there is enough oil supply globally to keep Brent around $81 this year and WTI at some $76.50, according to a Reuters poll.
Yet, like last year in U.S. shale showed, there is always the possibility of a major surprise.
According to the respondents in that poll, what’s keeping prices tame is, first, the fact that the Red Sea crisis has not yet affected oil shipments in the region, thanks to alternative routes.
The second reason cited by the analysts is OPEC+ spare capacity, which has increased, thanks to the cuts.
“Spare capacity has reached a multi-year high, which will keep overall market sentiment under pressure over the coming months”, senior analyst, Florian Grunberger, told Reuters.
The perception of ample spare capacity is definitely one factor keeping traders and analysts bearish as they assume this capacity would be put into operation as soon as the market needs it. This may well be an incorrect assumption.
Saudi Arabia and OPEC have given multiple signs that they would only release more production if prices are to their liking, and if cuts are getting extended, then current prices are not to OPEC’s liking yet.
There is more, too. The Saudis, which are cutting the most and have the greatest spare capacity at around 3 million barrels daily right now, are acutely aware that the moment they release additional supply, prices will plunge.
Therefore, the chance of Saudi cuts being reversed anytime soon is pretty slim.
Then there is the U.S. oil production factor. Last year, analysts expected modest output additions from the shale patch because the rig count remained consistently lower than what it was during the strongest shale boom years.
That assumption proved wrong as drillers made substantial gains in well productivity that pushed total production to yet another record.
Perhaps a bit oddly, analysts are once again making a bold assumption for this year: that the productivity gains will continue at the same rate this year as well.
The Energy Information Administration disagrees. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the authority estimated that U.S. oil output had reached a record high of 13.3 million barrels daily that in January fell to 12.6 million bpd due to harsh winter weather.
For the rest of the year, however, the EIA has forecast a production level remaining around the December record, which will only be broken in February 2025.
Oil demand, meanwhile, will be growing. Wood Mackenzie recently predicted 2024 demand growth at 1.9 million barrels daily.
OPEC sees this year’s demand growth at 2.25 million barrels daily. The IEA is, as usual, the most modest in its expectations, seeing 2024 demand for oil grow by 1.2 million bpd.
With OPEC+ keeping a lid on production and U.S. production remaining largely flat on 2023, if the EIA is correct, a tightening of the supply situation is only a matter of time. Indeed, some are predicting that already.
Natural resource-focused investors Goehring and Rozencwajg recently released their latest market outlook, in which they warned that the oil market may already be in a structural deficit, to manifest later this year.
They also noted a change in the methodology that the EIA uses to estimate oil production, which may well have led to a serious overestimation of production growth.
The discrepancy between actual and reported production, Goehring and Rozencwajg said, could be so significant that the EIA may be estimating growth where there’s a production decline.
So, on the one hand, some pretty important assumptions are being made about demand, namely, that it will grow more slowly this year than it did last year.
This assumption is based on another one, by the way, and this is the assumption that EV sales will rise as strongly as they did last year, when they failed to make a dent in oil demand growth, and kill some oil demand.
On the other hand, there is the assumption that U.S. drillers will keep drilling like they did last year. What would motivate such a development is unclear, besides the expectation that Europe will take in even more U.S. crude this year than it already is.
This is a much safer assumption than the one about demand, by the way. And yet, there are indications from the U.S. oil industry that there will be no pumping at will this year. There will be more production discipline.
Predicting oil prices accurately, even over the shortest of periods, is as safe as flipping a coin. With the number of variables at play at any moment, accurate predictions are usually little more than a fluke, especially when perceptions play such an outsized role in price movements.
One thing is for sure, though. There may be surprises this year in oil.
lrina Slav
Slav writes for Oilprice.com.
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