Oil & Energy
Europe Banks on African Gas To Check Dependence On Russian Imports
Africa is conservatively forecast to reach peak gas production at 470 billion cubic meters (Bcm) by the late 2030s, equivalent to about 75% of the expected amount of gas produced by Russia in 2022, according to Rystad Energy research.
In early March, the European Union announced that it aims to reduce its dependence on Russian gas by two-thirds by the end of this year alone and is currently headed for a supply crunch that will reverberate around the globe.
Even with the number of gas projects being developed or currently delayed, Africa still has significant production potential. The continent is forecast to increase its gas output from about 260 Bcm in 2022 to as much as 335 Bcm by the end of this decade.
If oil and gas operators decide to up the ante on their gas projects on the continent, near and mid-term natural gas production from Africa could surpass the above conservative forecasts.
Russia has historically been the dominant natural gas supplier to Europe, with an average of about 62% of overall gas imports to the continent over the past decade.
Africa has also been a consistent gas exporter to Europe during that time, with an average of 18% of European gas imports coming from Africa.
Projects in Africa are, however, historically seen as having increased risk and can be delayed or go unsanctioned due to high development costs, challenges accessing financing, issues with fiscal regimes and other above-the-ground risks.
Recent signals from oil and gas majors such as BP, Eni, Equinor, Shell, ExxonMobil and Equinor indicate a shift, however, in strategy towards further investment in Africa, with several projects that were previously on ice – including liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects – as they consider restarting or accelerating previously shelved projects in response to rising global demand.
“The geopolitical situation in Europe is changing the landscape for risk globally. While LNG flows from the US are substantial, demand is much higher. “
Asian and European importers will need to consider African priorities as they develop projects, as many African producers are focusing on supplying energy locally as well as to intra-African markets along with catering to global markets.
“Existing pipeline infrastructure from Northern Africa to Europe and historical LNG supply relationships make Africa a strong alternative for European markets, post the ban on Russian imports,” says Siva Prasad, senior analyst at Rystad Energy.
African nations that have historically been gas suppliers to Europe are well placed to scale up their exports. Africa’s advantage is that it already has existing pipelines connected with the wider European gas grid.
Current pipeline exports from Africa to Europe run through Algeria into Spain and from Libya into Italy. Talks of long-distance pipelines connecting gas fields in Southern Nigeria to Algeria via the onshore Trans Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) and the offshore Nigeria Morocco Gas Pipeline (NMGP) have picked up in recent months.
While the TSGP aims to utilize existing pipelines from Algeria to tap into European markets, NMGP aims to extend the existing West Africa Gas Pipeline (WAGP) all the way to Europe via West African coastal nations and Morocco.
Further afield, African LNG exports have predominantly come from Nigeria and Algeria, with smaller volumes from Egypt, Angola, and a fraction from Equatorial Guinea.
In addition, large-scale discoveries offshore in Mozambique, Tanzania, Senegal, Mauritania, and South Africa have the potential to yield additional natural gas exports once developed.
Europe is now considering how gas-rich African nations can be helped to scale up production and exports in the years to come. The European Union’s decision earlier this year that all natural gas investments are equivalent to investments in “green” energy signal that African gas is considered sustainable.
The supply crisis driven by security interests may push Europe to fund projects that will also help with energy affordability back home. For instance, Europe could be a key financer of the proposed $13-billion TSGP project.
BP’s Russia exit: A boost for uncontracted gas in Senegal-Mauritania
BP Chie Executive, Bernard Looney, has said the decision to exit Russia is not only the right thing to do but is also in the company’s long-term interests.
The UK giant recently booked pre-tax charges of $24 billion and $1.5 billion in its first-quarter 2022 financial results due to its decision to pull out of Russia. The company is now looking to African projects to seize the opportunity to target European markets with gas supplies.
BP has several big gas projects in Senegal and Mauritania – the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA), Yakaar-Terenga and BirAllah LNG projects. LNG volumes from the 2.5 million tonnes-per-annum (tps) GTA floating LNG (FLNG) Phase 1 have already been sold, and some gas from Yakaar will be used as feedstock for Senegal’s gas-to-power plant.
Meanwhile, gas from GTA LNG Phase 2, the remaining gas from Yakaar–Teranga and BirAllah are still uncontracted and these volumes could benefit from what is expected to be a supply-constrained LNG market in the coming years.
GTA FLNG Phase 2 has a planned capacity of 2.5 million tpa, while the Yakaar–Teranga and BirAllah LNG facilities could have capacity of 10 million tpa.
However, front-end engineering and design (FEED) on Yakaar–Teranga, which was kicked off in November 2021, will determine the final capacity for the project, and BP is also currently carrying out studies to see whether to accelerate development of the Bir Allah project targeting sales to Europe. Like BP, other major companies might also look towards their African gas portfolios to address the likely gas supply deficit.
Eni plans ramp up of African gas to Italy
Italian major Eni has said that it can alleviate Europe’s dependence on Russian gas to an extent through supply from its African projects, including in Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria, Angola and Congo-Brazzaville.
In the past month, Italy, in association with Eni, signed deals to boost gas imports from the North African nations of Algeria and Egypt, and then more recently, two more gas supply agreements with two Sub-Saharan African nations, Congo-Brazzaville and Angola.
Other African nations where Eni holds important upstream portfolios on the back of which the Italian authorities could potentially sign gas-related deals include Mozambique, Nigeria, Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire and Libya.
Nigeria is currently in the process of ramping up capacity at the Nigeria LNG project from 22 million to 30 million tpa through its Train 7 scheme and debottlenecking, and Eni is a stakeholder in many upstream fields that provide feed gas to the LNG plant as well as in the processing plant.
Equinor, Shell and ExxonMobil exit Russia: Re-focus for Mozambique and Tanzania LNG assets
Equinor, ExxonMobil and Shell, like BP, have significant LNG portfolios in Africa that are yet to be developed, and they can look to these massive gas resources to counter the potential gas supply deficit in the future. ExxonMobil has a 25% stake in Area 4 in Mozambique, with significant potential to add further expansion trains.
Mozambique was expected to benefit from the EU’s move to classify gas investments as green, even after an Islamist insurgency in the gas-rich Cabo Delgado province had paralyzed planned investments. The current scenario of a potential gas supply crunch could see the country accelerate the development of its gas resources.
The Federal Government has expressed optimism in attracting more investments by International Oil Companies (IOCs) into Nigeria to foster growth and sustainability in the energy sector.
This is as some IOCs, particularly Shell and TotalEnergies, had announced plans to divest some of their assets from the country.
Recall that Shell in January, 2024 had said it would sell the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited (SPDC) to Renaissance.
According to the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, increasing investments by IOCs as well as boosting crude production to enhancing Nigeria’s position as a leading player in the global energy market, are the key objectives of the Government.
Lokpobiri emphasized the Ministry’s willingness to collaborate with State Governments, particularly Bayelsa State, in advancing energy sector transformation efforts.
The Minister, who stressed the importance of cooperation in achieving shared goals said, “we are open to partnerships with Bayelsa State Government for mutual progress”.
In response to Governor Douye Diri’s appeal for Ministry intervention in restoring the Atala Oil Field belonging to Bayelsa State, the Minister assured prompt attention to the matter.
He said, “We will look into the issue promptly and ensure fairness and equity in addressing state concerns”.
Lokpobiri explained that the Bayelsa State Governor, Douyi Diri’s visit reaffirmed the commitment of both the Federal and State Government’s readiness to work together towards a sustainable, inclusive, and prosperous energy future for Nigeria.
While speaking, Governor Diri commended the Minister for his remarkable performance in revitalisng the nation’s energy sector.
The Federal Government has assured investors in the nation’s gas sector of the security and safety of their investments.
Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, gave the assurance while hosting top officials of Shanghai Huayi Energy Chemical Company Group of China (HUAYI) and China Road and Bridge Corporation, who are strategic investors in Brass Methanol and Gas Hub Project in Bayelsa State.
The Minister in a statement stressed that Nigeria was open for investments and investors, insisting that present and prospective foreign investors have no need to entertain fear on the safety of their investment.
Describing the Brass project as one critical project of the President Bola Tinubu-led administration, Ekpo said.
“The Federal Government is committed to developing Nigeria’s gas reserves through projects such as the Brass Methanol project, which presents an opportunity for the diversification of Nigeria’s economy.
“It is for this and other reasons that the project has been accorded the significant concessions (or support) that it enjoys from the government.
“Let me, therefore, assure you of the strong commitment of our government to the security and safety of yours and other investments as we have continually done for similar Chinese investments in Nigeria through the years”, he added.
Ekpo further tasked investors and contractors working on the project to double their efforts, saying, “I want to see this project running for the good of Nigeria and its investors”.
Earlier in his speech, Leader of the Chinese delegation, Mr Zheng Bi Jun, said the visit to the country was to carry out feasibility studies for investments in methanol projects.
On his part, the Managing Director of Brass Fertiliser and Petrochemical Ltd, Mr Ben Okoye, expressed optimism in partnering with genuine investors on the project.
Crude oil prices recently logged their second monthly gain in a row as OPEC+ extended their supply curb deal until the end of Q2 2024.
The gains have been considerable, with WTI adding about $7 per barrel over the month of February.
Yet a lot of analysts remain bearish about the commodity’s prospects. In fact, they believe that there is enough oil supply globally to keep Brent around $81 this year and WTI at some $76.50, according to a Reuters poll.
Yet, like last year in U.S. shale showed, there is always the possibility of a major surprise.
According to the respondents in that poll, what’s keeping prices tame is, first, the fact that the Red Sea crisis has not yet affected oil shipments in the region, thanks to alternative routes.
The second reason cited by the analysts is OPEC+ spare capacity, which has increased, thanks to the cuts.
“Spare capacity has reached a multi-year high, which will keep overall market sentiment under pressure over the coming months”, senior analyst, Florian Grunberger, told Reuters.
The perception of ample spare capacity is definitely one factor keeping traders and analysts bearish as they assume this capacity would be put into operation as soon as the market needs it. This may well be an incorrect assumption.
Saudi Arabia and OPEC have given multiple signs that they would only release more production if prices are to their liking, and if cuts are getting extended, then current prices are not to OPEC’s liking yet.
There is more, too. The Saudis, which are cutting the most and have the greatest spare capacity at around 3 million barrels daily right now, are acutely aware that the moment they release additional supply, prices will plunge.
Therefore, the chance of Saudi cuts being reversed anytime soon is pretty slim.
Then there is the U.S. oil production factor. Last year, analysts expected modest output additions from the shale patch because the rig count remained consistently lower than what it was during the strongest shale boom years.
That assumption proved wrong as drillers made substantial gains in well productivity that pushed total production to yet another record.
Perhaps a bit oddly, analysts are once again making a bold assumption for this year: that the productivity gains will continue at the same rate this year as well.
The Energy Information Administration disagrees. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the authority estimated that U.S. oil output had reached a record high of 13.3 million barrels daily that in January fell to 12.6 million bpd due to harsh winter weather.
For the rest of the year, however, the EIA has forecast a production level remaining around the December record, which will only be broken in February 2025.
Oil demand, meanwhile, will be growing. Wood Mackenzie recently predicted 2024 demand growth at 1.9 million barrels daily.
OPEC sees this year’s demand growth at 2.25 million barrels daily. The IEA is, as usual, the most modest in its expectations, seeing 2024 demand for oil grow by 1.2 million bpd.
With OPEC+ keeping a lid on production and U.S. production remaining largely flat on 2023, if the EIA is correct, a tightening of the supply situation is only a matter of time. Indeed, some are predicting that already.
Natural resource-focused investors Goehring and Rozencwajg recently released their latest market outlook, in which they warned that the oil market may already be in a structural deficit, to manifest later this year.
They also noted a change in the methodology that the EIA uses to estimate oil production, which may well have led to a serious overestimation of production growth.
The discrepancy between actual and reported production, Goehring and Rozencwajg said, could be so significant that the EIA may be estimating growth where there’s a production decline.
So, on the one hand, some pretty important assumptions are being made about demand, namely, that it will grow more slowly this year than it did last year.
This assumption is based on another one, by the way, and this is the assumption that EV sales will rise as strongly as they did last year, when they failed to make a dent in oil demand growth, and kill some oil demand.
On the other hand, there is the assumption that U.S. drillers will keep drilling like they did last year. What would motivate such a development is unclear, besides the expectation that Europe will take in even more U.S. crude this year than it already is.
This is a much safer assumption than the one about demand, by the way. And yet, there are indications from the U.S. oil industry that there will be no pumping at will this year. There will be more production discipline.
Predicting oil prices accurately, even over the shortest of periods, is as safe as flipping a coin. With the number of variables at play at any moment, accurate predictions are usually little more than a fluke, especially when perceptions play such an outsized role in price movements.
One thing is for sure, though. There may be surprises this year in oil.
lrina Slav
Slav writes for Oilprice.com.
