Oil & Energy
Access To Forex, Bane Of Marketers – DAPPMAN
Marketers Association of Nigeria (DAPPMAN) says accessing foreign exchange at official rate was a serious challenge to marketers.
DAPPMAN’s Chairman, Mrs Winifred Akpani, who stated this at a news conference in Lagos, called on the Federal Government to give petroleum marketers access to foreign exchange at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) official rate to enhance the supply and distribution of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), also known as petrol, across the nation.
She said accessing foreign exchange at official rate would boost fuel supply across the country.
She added that the burden of sourcing forex through the parallel market for transactions domiciled in Nigeria had left petroleum marketers in dire straits.
“Accessing dollars for our operations has been an insurmountable hurdle for petroleum marketers.
“The difference between CBN exchange rate and the parallel market exchange rate continues to get wider by the day,” she said.
Akpani noted that in addition to core operational expenses denominated in dollars, petroleum marketers also contended with sourcing funds from the parallel market to pay for fees and levies, some unauthorised, also charged in dollars.
“For example, to charter a vessel to convey 20,000 MT of petrol within Nigeria for 10 days, freight charges are denominated in dollars, that comes to about N220 million at official forex rate of N440.
“And a whooping N440 million for petroleum marketers who have to source forex from the parallel market at N880.
“This implies an additional cost of N11 per litre for this transaction due to the forex official and parallel market differential,” she said.
According to her, for the same transaction, Jetty fees, also charged in dollars amounts to N15.4 million at official forex rates and N30.8 million for petroleum marketers who source from the parallel market.
“In addition, Jetty Berth is charged in dollars and comes to N2.2m at official forex rate and N4.4 million at parallel market rate.
“While port dues, charged in dollars by the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) and Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA), come to N71.51 million at official forex rate and N142.796 million for marketers who source forex from the parallel market.
“DAPPMAN hereby calls on the government to establish a level playing field in the sector by giving petroleum marketers access to forex at the CBN exchange rate for their operations,” she said.
Akpani said accessing forex through the CBN window would enhance capacity and facilitate seamless supply of petrol and birth a regime of sustainability in terms of storage, distribution, and supply across the nation.
“The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Ltd., which historically served as the supplier of last resort, is now the major oil downstream company in Nigeria with the acquisition of OVH and has full access to dollars at CBN’s official rates.
“The NNPC also has access to products through swap arrangements,” she said.
Akpani decried the absence of a level-playing field that guarantees access to dollars for all marketers at official rates, and that having the NNPC as the sole importer of petrol was not sustainable, considering the huge consumption of the product.
According to her, strategic decisions must be made in the industry to ensure Nigeria takes full advantage of expected growth in oil products demand across Africa.
“For us in Nigeria, this will include full deregulation of the sector and a deliberate strategy geared towards creating an enabling environment for all petroleum marketers to add value, alongside the NNPC,” she stated.
Akpani said DAPPMAN considered the government’s plan to remove subsidy in 2023 as the right decision that would reposition the sector for sustainable growth and development.
She said the removal of subsidy would free up funds to shore up the capacity needed to transform the health, education, defence, and transportation sectors among others.
“As we approach the Yuletide and transition to the election year in 2023, the nation needs the full involvement of all operators to shore up capacity and ensure product availability at excellent service levels.
“While there might be fears regarding possible scarcity of petrol, DAPPMAN assures Nigerians of its ability and willingness to work assiduously to ramp up supply as the government addresses the challenges of forex availability in the sector,” she said.
The DAPPMAN boss lauded the Federal Government and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Regulatory Authority for emerging gains in the sector, especially, following the introduction of the Petroleum Industry Act.
“There have been important meetings aimed at shaping a sustainable future for the sector.
“These must continue as the success of the sector in the face of the intervening global energy crisis depends on collaboration and consideration of how operators can shore up capacity on the wings of market-friendly policies and a level-playing field,” Akpani noted.
Oil & Energy
FG Woos IOCs On Energy Growth
The Federal Government has expressed optimism in attracting more investments by International Oil Companies (IOCs) into Nigeria to foster growth and sustainability in the energy sector.
This is as some IOCs, particularly Shell and TotalEnergies, had announced plans to divest some of their assets from the country.
Recall that Shell in January, 2024 had said it would sell the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited (SPDC) to Renaissance.
According to the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, increasing investments by IOCs as well as boosting crude production to enhancing Nigeria’s position as a leading player in the global energy market, are the key objectives of the Government.
Lokpobiri emphasized the Ministry’s willingness to collaborate with State Governments, particularly Bayelsa State, in advancing energy sector transformation efforts.
The Minister, who stressed the importance of cooperation in achieving shared goals said, “we are open to partnerships with Bayelsa State Government for mutual progress”.
In response to Governor Douye Diri’s appeal for Ministry intervention in restoring the Atala Oil Field belonging to Bayelsa State, the Minister assured prompt attention to the matter.
He said, “We will look into the issue promptly and ensure fairness and equity in addressing state concerns”.
Lokpobiri explained that the Bayelsa State Governor, Douyi Diri’s visit reaffirmed the commitment of both the Federal and State Government’s readiness to work together towards a sustainable, inclusive, and prosperous energy future for Nigeria.
While speaking, Governor Diri commended the Minister for his remarkable performance in revitalisng the nation’s energy sector.
Oil & Energy
Your Investment Is Safe, FG Tells Investors In Gas
The Federal Government has assured investors in the nation’s gas sector of the security and safety of their investments.
Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, gave the assurance while hosting top officials of Shanghai Huayi Energy Chemical Company Group of China (HUAYI) and China Road and Bridge Corporation, who are strategic investors in Brass Methanol and Gas Hub Project in Bayelsa State.
The Minister in a statement stressed that Nigeria was open for investments and investors, insisting that present and prospective foreign investors have no need to entertain fear on the safety of their investment.
Describing the Brass project as one critical project of the President Bola Tinubu-led administration, Ekpo said.
“The Federal Government is committed to developing Nigeria’s gas reserves through projects such as the Brass Methanol project, which presents an opportunity for the diversification of Nigeria’s economy.
“It is for this and other reasons that the project has been accorded the significant concessions (or support) that it enjoys from the government.
“Let me, therefore, assure you of the strong commitment of our government to the security and safety of yours and other investments as we have continually done for similar Chinese investments in Nigeria through the years”, he added.
Ekpo further tasked investors and contractors working on the project to double their efforts, saying, “I want to see this project running for the good of Nigeria and its investors”.
Earlier in his speech, Leader of the Chinese delegation, Mr Zheng Bi Jun, said the visit to the country was to carry out feasibility studies for investments in methanol projects.
On his part, the Managing Director of Brass Fertiliser and Petrochemical Ltd, Mr Ben Okoye, expressed optimism in partnering with genuine investors on the project.
Oil & Energy
Oil Prices Record Second Monthly Gain
Crude oil prices recently logged their second monthly gain in a row as OPEC+ extended their supply curb deal until the end of Q2 2024.
The gains have been considerable, with WTI adding about $7 per barrel over the month of February.
Yet a lot of analysts remain bearish about the commodity’s prospects. In fact, they believe that there is enough oil supply globally to keep Brent around $81 this year and WTI at some $76.50, according to a Reuters poll.
Yet, like last year in U.S. shale showed, there is always the possibility of a major surprise.
According to the respondents in that poll, what’s keeping prices tame is, first, the fact that the Red Sea crisis has not yet affected oil shipments in the region, thanks to alternative routes.
The second reason cited by the analysts is OPEC+ spare capacity, which has increased, thanks to the cuts.
“Spare capacity has reached a multi-year high, which will keep overall market sentiment under pressure over the coming months”, senior analyst, Florian Grunberger, told Reuters.
The perception of ample spare capacity is definitely one factor keeping traders and analysts bearish as they assume this capacity would be put into operation as soon as the market needs it. This may well be an incorrect assumption.
Saudi Arabia and OPEC have given multiple signs that they would only release more production if prices are to their liking, and if cuts are getting extended, then current prices are not to OPEC’s liking yet.
There is more, too. The Saudis, which are cutting the most and have the greatest spare capacity at around 3 million barrels daily right now, are acutely aware that the moment they release additional supply, prices will plunge.
Therefore, the chance of Saudi cuts being reversed anytime soon is pretty slim.
Then there is the U.S. oil production factor. Last year, analysts expected modest output additions from the shale patch because the rig count remained consistently lower than what it was during the strongest shale boom years.
That assumption proved wrong as drillers made substantial gains in well productivity that pushed total production to yet another record.
Perhaps a bit oddly, analysts are once again making a bold assumption for this year: that the productivity gains will continue at the same rate this year as well.
The Energy Information Administration disagrees. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the authority estimated that U.S. oil output had reached a record high of 13.3 million barrels daily that in January fell to 12.6 million bpd due to harsh winter weather.
For the rest of the year, however, the EIA has forecast a production level remaining around the December record, which will only be broken in February 2025.
Oil demand, meanwhile, will be growing. Wood Mackenzie recently predicted 2024 demand growth at 1.9 million barrels daily.
OPEC sees this year’s demand growth at 2.25 million barrels daily. The IEA is, as usual, the most modest in its expectations, seeing 2024 demand for oil grow by 1.2 million bpd.
With OPEC+ keeping a lid on production and U.S. production remaining largely flat on 2023, if the EIA is correct, a tightening of the supply situation is only a matter of time. Indeed, some are predicting that already.
Natural resource-focused investors Goehring and Rozencwajg recently released their latest market outlook, in which they warned that the oil market may already be in a structural deficit, to manifest later this year.
They also noted a change in the methodology that the EIA uses to estimate oil production, which may well have led to a serious overestimation of production growth.
The discrepancy between actual and reported production, Goehring and Rozencwajg said, could be so significant that the EIA may be estimating growth where there’s a production decline.
So, on the one hand, some pretty important assumptions are being made about demand, namely, that it will grow more slowly this year than it did last year.
This assumption is based on another one, by the way, and this is the assumption that EV sales will rise as strongly as they did last year, when they failed to make a dent in oil demand growth, and kill some oil demand.
On the other hand, there is the assumption that U.S. drillers will keep drilling like they did last year. What would motivate such a development is unclear, besides the expectation that Europe will take in even more U.S. crude this year than it already is.
This is a much safer assumption than the one about demand, by the way. And yet, there are indications from the U.S. oil industry that there will be no pumping at will this year. There will be more production discipline.
Predicting oil prices accurately, even over the shortest of periods, is as safe as flipping a coin. With the number of variables at play at any moment, accurate predictions are usually little more than a fluke, especially when perceptions play such an outsized role in price movements.
One thing is for sure, though. There may be surprises this year in oil.
lrina Slav
Slav writes for Oilprice.com.