Oil & Energy
Why White House Is Wrong About Oil Major Share Buybacks
In late January, Chevron announced fourth quarter and full year 2022 results. Chevron earned a record $36.5 billion profit in 2022, more than doubling 2021 earnings.
In addition, Chevron increased its quarterly dividend by 6%, and announced a $75 billion stock buyback:
“The Board also authorised the repurchase of the company’s shares of common stock in an aggregate amount of $75 billion. The $75 billion authorisation takes effect on April 1, 2023, and does not have a fixed expiration date.
“It replaces the Board’s previous repurchase authorisation of $25 billion from January 2019, which will terminate on March 31, 2023, after the completion of the company’s repurchases in the first quarter 2023″.
This stock buyback announcement got immediate attention from the Joe Biden Administration. In a series of tweets, White House spokesperson Abdullah Hasan wrote:<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>For a company that claimed not too long ago that it was ‘working hard’ to increase oil production, handing out $75 billion to executives and wealthy shareholders sure is an odd way to show it.
I understand why the White House would do this, but these attacks are disingenuous. Chevron can walk and chew gum at the same time.
Chevron didn’t increase the dividend and share buyback instead of investing in new production. The company did both. Chevron’s capital and exploratory expenditures in 2022 were more than 40% higher than in 2021. Further, Chevron actually reported record U.S. oil and natural gas production for 2022.
The White House response is part of an ongoing war of words with the oil and gas industry. If blame can be shifted to oil companies for high energy prices, then perhaps people won’t be so upset with the Biden Administration.
In reality, that’s a big reason the administration engages in this behavior. But, they have also demonstrated some level of ignorance about how the oil and gas industry works, so that may be at play as well.
Consider this. The goal of the Biden Administration is to transition away from oil as soon as possible. Many of their policies could be viewed as hostile toward the oil and gas industry.
But the administration is upset that oil companies aren’t investing even more into projects that will likely take more than a decade to pay for themselves.
So, the Biden Administration is trying to have it both ways: Work to phase out demand for oil, while complaining that the oil companies aren’t investing enough into producing more oil.
It’s natural to be upset that consumers are paying high prices for gasoline while oil companies are making record profits. It is natural to wonder why they can’t give consumers a break. I will give you a hint. It’s the same reason chicken farmers aren’t currently giving consumers a break on chicken or egg prices. It is supply and demand.
The Biden Administration is demanding more supply, and oil companies are complying. Instead of acknowledging this, the administration complains and pretends they aren’t actually increasing supplies.
In fact, U.S. oil production rose last year to the second-highest level on record and stands a good chance of setting a new record high this year. The number of rigs drilling for oil is 28% higher than it was a year ago. Clearly, companies are investing in boosting production.
Nobody ever complains when a company issues stock. A company says “here is a chance to own part of this company.” Yet, if a company doesn’t feel the market is placing an appropriate value on the company shares, why shouldn’t they be able to buy those shares back?
For that matter, many of Chevron’s shareholders aren’t wealthy at all. Many retirement accounts hold Chevron shares, so ordinary people trying to save for retirement also benefit from these stock buybacks.
But the Biden Administration always frames this as a giveaway to wealthy executives and shareholders.
Three years ago, oil companies were hemorrhaging cash. Today, they have excess cash. It’s true that this is because oil and gas prices skyrocketed last year, but the Biden Administration also bears some responsibility for that. Rightly or wrongly, the decision to stop importing Russian oil was a Biden Administration decision that caused those commodity prices to soar. That, in turn, helped drive profits higher.
As I have argued previously, there’s nothing stopping consumers from being owners of oil and gas companies. As Benzinga recently pointed out, an investor who put $1,000 into Chevron on the day after Biden won the election would have $2,477 today, not including dividends. That would go a long way toward offsetting the impact of high gasoline prices. Further, such an owner would also directly benefit from these stock buybacks.
Robert Rapier,via rrapier.com
Oil & Energy
FG Woos IOCs On Energy Growth
The Federal Government has expressed optimism in attracting more investments by International Oil Companies (IOCs) into Nigeria to foster growth and sustainability in the energy sector.
This is as some IOCs, particularly Shell and TotalEnergies, had announced plans to divest some of their assets from the country.
Recall that Shell in January, 2024 had said it would sell the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited (SPDC) to Renaissance.
According to the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, increasing investments by IOCs as well as boosting crude production to enhancing Nigeria’s position as a leading player in the global energy market, are the key objectives of the Government.
Lokpobiri emphasized the Ministry’s willingness to collaborate with State Governments, particularly Bayelsa State, in advancing energy sector transformation efforts.
The Minister, who stressed the importance of cooperation in achieving shared goals said, “we are open to partnerships with Bayelsa State Government for mutual progress”.
In response to Governor Douye Diri’s appeal for Ministry intervention in restoring the Atala Oil Field belonging to Bayelsa State, the Minister assured prompt attention to the matter.
He said, “We will look into the issue promptly and ensure fairness and equity in addressing state concerns”.
Lokpobiri explained that the Bayelsa State Governor, Douyi Diri’s visit reaffirmed the commitment of both the Federal and State Government’s readiness to work together towards a sustainable, inclusive, and prosperous energy future for Nigeria.
While speaking, Governor Diri commended the Minister for his remarkable performance in revitalisng the nation’s energy sector.
Oil & Energy
Your Investment Is Safe, FG Tells Investors In Gas
The Federal Government has assured investors in the nation’s gas sector of the security and safety of their investments.
Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, gave the assurance while hosting top officials of Shanghai Huayi Energy Chemical Company Group of China (HUAYI) and China Road and Bridge Corporation, who are strategic investors in Brass Methanol and Gas Hub Project in Bayelsa State.
The Minister in a statement stressed that Nigeria was open for investments and investors, insisting that present and prospective foreign investors have no need to entertain fear on the safety of their investment.
Describing the Brass project as one critical project of the President Bola Tinubu-led administration, Ekpo said.
“The Federal Government is committed to developing Nigeria’s gas reserves through projects such as the Brass Methanol project, which presents an opportunity for the diversification of Nigeria’s economy.
“It is for this and other reasons that the project has been accorded the significant concessions (or support) that it enjoys from the government.
“Let me, therefore, assure you of the strong commitment of our government to the security and safety of yours and other investments as we have continually done for similar Chinese investments in Nigeria through the years”, he added.
Ekpo further tasked investors and contractors working on the project to double their efforts, saying, “I want to see this project running for the good of Nigeria and its investors”.
Earlier in his speech, Leader of the Chinese delegation, Mr Zheng Bi Jun, said the visit to the country was to carry out feasibility studies for investments in methanol projects.
On his part, the Managing Director of Brass Fertiliser and Petrochemical Ltd, Mr Ben Okoye, expressed optimism in partnering with genuine investors on the project.
Oil & Energy
Oil Prices Record Second Monthly Gain
Crude oil prices recently logged their second monthly gain in a row as OPEC+ extended their supply curb deal until the end of Q2 2024.
The gains have been considerable, with WTI adding about $7 per barrel over the month of February.
Yet a lot of analysts remain bearish about the commodity’s prospects. In fact, they believe that there is enough oil supply globally to keep Brent around $81 this year and WTI at some $76.50, according to a Reuters poll.
Yet, like last year in U.S. shale showed, there is always the possibility of a major surprise.
According to the respondents in that poll, what’s keeping prices tame is, first, the fact that the Red Sea crisis has not yet affected oil shipments in the region, thanks to alternative routes.
The second reason cited by the analysts is OPEC+ spare capacity, which has increased, thanks to the cuts.
“Spare capacity has reached a multi-year high, which will keep overall market sentiment under pressure over the coming months”, senior analyst, Florian Grunberger, told Reuters.
The perception of ample spare capacity is definitely one factor keeping traders and analysts bearish as they assume this capacity would be put into operation as soon as the market needs it. This may well be an incorrect assumption.
Saudi Arabia and OPEC have given multiple signs that they would only release more production if prices are to their liking, and if cuts are getting extended, then current prices are not to OPEC’s liking yet.
There is more, too. The Saudis, which are cutting the most and have the greatest spare capacity at around 3 million barrels daily right now, are acutely aware that the moment they release additional supply, prices will plunge.
Therefore, the chance of Saudi cuts being reversed anytime soon is pretty slim.
Then there is the U.S. oil production factor. Last year, analysts expected modest output additions from the shale patch because the rig count remained consistently lower than what it was during the strongest shale boom years.
That assumption proved wrong as drillers made substantial gains in well productivity that pushed total production to yet another record.
Perhaps a bit oddly, analysts are once again making a bold assumption for this year: that the productivity gains will continue at the same rate this year as well.
The Energy Information Administration disagrees. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the authority estimated that U.S. oil output had reached a record high of 13.3 million barrels daily that in January fell to 12.6 million bpd due to harsh winter weather.
For the rest of the year, however, the EIA has forecast a production level remaining around the December record, which will only be broken in February 2025.
Oil demand, meanwhile, will be growing. Wood Mackenzie recently predicted 2024 demand growth at 1.9 million barrels daily.
OPEC sees this year’s demand growth at 2.25 million barrels daily. The IEA is, as usual, the most modest in its expectations, seeing 2024 demand for oil grow by 1.2 million bpd.
With OPEC+ keeping a lid on production and U.S. production remaining largely flat on 2023, if the EIA is correct, a tightening of the supply situation is only a matter of time. Indeed, some are predicting that already.
Natural resource-focused investors Goehring and Rozencwajg recently released their latest market outlook, in which they warned that the oil market may already be in a structural deficit, to manifest later this year.
They also noted a change in the methodology that the EIA uses to estimate oil production, which may well have led to a serious overestimation of production growth.
The discrepancy between actual and reported production, Goehring and Rozencwajg said, could be so significant that the EIA may be estimating growth where there’s a production decline.
So, on the one hand, some pretty important assumptions are being made about demand, namely, that it will grow more slowly this year than it did last year.
This assumption is based on another one, by the way, and this is the assumption that EV sales will rise as strongly as they did last year, when they failed to make a dent in oil demand growth, and kill some oil demand.
On the other hand, there is the assumption that U.S. drillers will keep drilling like they did last year. What would motivate such a development is unclear, besides the expectation that Europe will take in even more U.S. crude this year than it already is.
This is a much safer assumption than the one about demand, by the way. And yet, there are indications from the U.S. oil industry that there will be no pumping at will this year. There will be more production discipline.
Predicting oil prices accurately, even over the shortest of periods, is as safe as flipping a coin. With the number of variables at play at any moment, accurate predictions are usually little more than a fluke, especially when perceptions play such an outsized role in price movements.
One thing is for sure, though. There may be surprises this year in oil.
lrina Slav
Slav writes for Oilprice.com.
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