Opinion

Who Needs Census Now?

Published

3 years ago

March 15, 2023

The importance of Census cannot be over emphasised.
The data that emanate from the census help countries in a fair distribution of national wealth and for planning; in formulation of policies towards population growth as well as in delineation of constituencies. Researchers make constant use of the information made available through census, just as the data is helpful in revenue allocation to the various tiers of government. When a series of census has been undertaken properly it becomes easier, using the rate of growth, to estimate the population between the periods of counts. The Nigeria Population Commission (NPC) has identified a nationwide census as crucial for national development. According to the Director-General of NPC, Nasir Isa-Kwarra, census generates data used by the government and the private sector for policy making, planning and development. In addition to the demographic data being important for national development due to its influence in sectoral planning and direction of government priorities.
Thus, in accordance with the NPC’s plan, from May 3 to May 7 this year, Nigeria is expected to witness another Census after 17 years of head count in the country, the date having been moved from the initial March 29 to April 2. The result of the census conducted in 2006 put the population of the country at 140.43 million comprising 71.3 million male and 69.0 million females. And for some years, there have been disparities in the actual population of Nigeria from different sources. While the National Development Plan (2021-2025) estimates Nigeria’s population at 200 million currently, World Bank Data places the population as slightly over 206 million, the United Nations Population Fund data says Nigeria’s 2021 population is slightly over 211 million with a 2.6 per cent growth rate. Some other sources even put the country’s current population at about 213 million.
So, apparently, a census is needed to harmonise all these estimations. Both the questions being asked by many Nigerians are, how credible will the result of the forthcoming census be? Considering the economic situation of the country presently – the crunch, the unending fuel scarcity which has made life unbearable for the citizens, is this the right time to spend N532.7 billion Naira on the conduct of a census? Presently, Nigeria could be termed as an environment fraught with resource-demanding challenges ranging from educational instability, fuel scarcity and insecurity among others. Nigerians in some parts of the country like the Federal Capital Territory, now sleep at petrol stations to enable them get fuel for their cars and other uses. In places like Port Harcourt and other South-South and South Eastern towns and villages, the purchase of petrol at N500.00 or more per litre is now the norm. People’s businesses are parking up due to harsh economic realities in the country and all the government is interested in is to spend billions on head count?
The Presidential and National Assembly elections have just been conducted with the result deepening the disunity among the citizens. Quite a good number of the citizens believe that the election was badly flawed and are still disappointed and hurt over the alleged roles of some federal institutions and individuals for the loss of some candidates. Should not then the efforts of the federal government and President Mohammadu Buhari be focused on how to heal the peoples’ wound and unite the citizens instead of embarking on a census? With the mood of the nation right now, how are we sure that the people are going to see the outcome of the census as being credible, reliable, accurate and acceptable? Already some people believe that the census in Nigeria is politically motivated and it is used to perpetuate the political dominance of certain sections of the country over the others. That probably explains why many Nigerians have vowed never to accept the census result if it says that some states/sections of the country are more populated than the others.
At an event recently, the Federal Commissioner, NPC Edo State, Dr Tony Aiyejina, was quoted as saying that this year’s exercise will be fully digitised. He said, “Let nobody deceive you, this census will be accurate because the technology we are using cannot be compromised, permit me to acknowledge the bold decision of the present administration under the leadership of President Muhammad Buhari to conduct a census for the country. “The present Commission, leveraging on the administration’s approval and support, decided to conduct a digital census for the country, the first of its kind in Nigeria.” It was a paradigm shift of epochal proportions, because all processes, before, during and after the census, will be conducted on digital platforms and devices. “Nigerians are already used to such “firm promises.” The Chairman of the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) , Prof. Mahmood Yakubu gave similar assurance on BVAS and electronic transmission of the 2023 election. How far were the assurances fulfilled during the presidential election?
One therefore thinks that the NPC should take a second look at the planned census. As a financial expert admonished, “Conducting a census when Nigeria is deep in debt with feasible challenges is a destructive oversight bearing consequences that would draw the country closer to extinction, ‘In every economy there are needs and wants. Census is necessary but not a daunting need at the moment. We can temporarily substitute the census data with information acquired through the national identification number.As a nation we should not place our wants over needs. We can not conduct a credible and meaningful census without adequate security, in unprecedented hardship and financial difficulties in the nation. It is no secret that our national resources are scarce, therefore further mismanagement may spell doom for the country, Nigeria has an estimated population of about 206 million, making it the seventh most populous country in the world. According to the United Nations, the country’s population is projected to increase to 263 million in 2030 and 401 million in 2050 when it will become the third most populous country in the world. The report published in 2017 by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, which provides a comprehensive review of global demographic trends and prospects for the future, projected shifts in country population rankings.
The new projections include some notable findings at the country level. China with 1.4 billion inhabitants and India 1.3 billion inhabitants remain the two most populous countries, comprising 19 and 18 per cent of the total global population. In roughly seven years, or around 2024, the population of India is expected to surpass that of China. “Among the ten largest countries worldwide, Nigeria is growing the most rapidly. Consequently, the population of Nigeria, is projected to surpass that of the United States and become the third largest country in the world shortly before 2050,’’ the report said. So, practical, realistic measures should be taken towards checking the growing Nigeria’s population and taking advantage of the country’s huge population for the good of the country. Meanwhile, the slogan for this year’s census is so catchy – you count, be counted.

By: Calista Ezeaku

Opinion

A Renewing Optimism For Naira

Published

2 days ago

October 27, 2025

The Tide

Quote:”……in 2024 alone, Nigeria imported N14.14 trillion worth of goods from China, compared to China’s N3 trillion imports from Nigeria.”

Nigeria’s national currency, the Naira, is creating a new buzz as it sets on rising trends following years of astronomical slides in the recent past. Just within a few months ago, naira’s trajectory charted almost a straight course, strengthening from N1,636.71/$ on April 10, 2025, to N1,465.68/$ on October 2, 2025. But financial analysts appear divided over the future fate of the local legal tender.While analysts like the Forbes and Renaissance Capital Africa (RENCAP) deride naira’s current trends as being unsustainable, Bloomberg sees a sunnier side. However, evolving economic landscapes strongly suggest that the naira might be charting a sustainable path of resilience. For more than four decades, the naira had never experienced favourable Foreign Exchange (FX) tussles.

Suffering under skewed supply and demand tensions against foreign currencies, the value of the naira had procedurally depreciated. It got worse when, at the height of subsidized petroleum products import-dependence, subsidies got suddenly withdrawn in May 2023 as the present government took over office. Barring local production of the products, coupled with poor export earnings, demands for scarce foreign currencies surged at all FX windows as product importers competed to make overseas payments. The result was cataclysmic. The naira depreciated rapidly against the dollar, falling from N460.7/$ in May 2023 to N1,706/$ in 2024. Hardships propagated across the entire Nigerian economy in ripples of hyper-inflation as is still being felt. The initial response from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) was knee-jerk and unsustainable, as the regulator kept throwing its store of foreign reserve into FX markets to quench the ensuing inferno.

Though the naira showed buoyancy at the expense of depleting reserves, the CBN was criticized against the hopelessness and unsustainability of such artificial floats. Thankfully for the local currency, after months of fire-fighting, the CBN, aided by other lucky developments, may have stumbled unto some formulae to weather the storms. Emerging econometrics now suggest that the economy may be in recovery, and the naira appears to be charting a more optimistic course, even as the apex bank still prods it. The lower oil production data of around one million barrels per day as at May 2023, has improved to around 1.51 million barrels per day at the moment. Surely, the fight against oil thefts is rewarding the economy with surpluses unencumbered by Nigeria’s debt-mortgaged oil futures.bSecondly, a changed petroleum products sourcing landscape, berthed by new-found local refining capacity at Dangote Refinery, if not strengthening the naira, must be tipping the balance of FX pressures in its favour.

While asserting its ability to fully satisfy local demands, the Dangote Refinery also hit a remarkable milestone when it shipped its first cargo of gasoline to the United States of America last month, drawing-in huge FX. Earlier, the refiners had shipped to Asia and West Africa, in a significant shift that has transited Nigeria from being a net-importer of petroleum product, to a net-exporter. Also, improvements in the non-oil exports are increasing the inflow of foreign currencies to Nigeria. Nigerian cocoa and other agro-products especially, got higher demands as crop diseases resulted in poor crop yields in neighboring West African countries. It should be noteworthy that CBN’s experiments with Naira-Yuan trade swaps with China may not have been of much favour. Though on-going trade swap arrangements between Nigerian and China which enable some settlement in naira and yuan, may ease dollar pressures, the huge trade imbalance between Nigeria and China may replace any gains with new yuan pressures.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2024 alone, Nigeria imported N14.14 trillion worth of goods from China, compared to China’s N3 trillion imports from Nigeria.

However, the CBN could be given credits for its bold reforms at the Foreign Exchange market that created a single Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) in October 2023, which replaced the former Investors’ and Exporters’ window, and later adopting the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) in December 2024. These steps successfully narrowed the gap between official FX rates and the black market. Even as the measures may not directly detect the balance of currency demands and supplies, improved transparency and liquidity raised confidence that is boosting foreign remittances via official channels. Added to improved exports, it is evident that the extra liquidity gives spontaneous buoyancy to the naira, in ways CBN’s panicked throwing-in of dollar into FX markets could not have.

This is why, when the CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, announced during the 302nd monetary policy committee meeting that, “The second quarter 2025 current account balance recorded a significant surplus of $5.28 billion compared with $2.85 billion in first quarter of 2025,” there is need for him to identify significant drivers. The CBN deserves commendation also, for incrementally growing Nigeria’s Foreign Reserve savings from $34.39 billion as at May, 2023 to $42.40 as at October 2, 2025. The strength of a nation’s reserves reflects its ability to meet international payment obligations without straining the stability of its legal tender, and also serves as part of risk assessment criteria that determines its borrowing costs. Increasing reserves is projecting greater external resilience for Nigeria, which reflects in Moody’s upgrading, this year, of Nigeria’s rating from ‘Caa1’ to ‘B3.’

With renewed investor confidence, foreign investments may be heading towards Nigeria as ripples from the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NGX) suggest. Following recent interest rate cuts in the US, foreign investors appear to be shifting appetites towards Nigerian portfolios. Improved reserve is also helping Nigeria at the Eurobond market, where the yield rates Nigeria pays on its loans, have fallen from above 8 percent in early 2024 to just over 5 percent by mid-2025. However, even as the N1,706/$ exchange rate of last year, compared to the current N1,465.68/$, may seem cheery, it is still a far cry from the N460.7/$ of May 2023, when this administration took over. Government and the CBN need to push further to shore-up greater reserves, and to build local and international assurances that attract job-creating investments for local production. Comparatively among its pairs, South Africa’s reserve is $70.42 billion, Algeria’s, $64.574 billion and Egypt’s, $49.04 billion.

Nigeria, which is being projected for a $1 trillion economy by 2050, should be focusing on $100 billion external reserves. Apart from reserves, Dangote local refining shows that local production is pivotal to the value of local currencies. Nigeria needs to improve security and infrastructure to reassure subsisting industries, and improve ease of doing business, in order to attract industries. Though Naira’s path of recovery this time is sustainable, the factors that aid it need to be sustained.

By: Joseph Nwankwor

Opinion

Don’t Kill Tam David-West

Published

2 days ago

October 27, 2025

The Tide

Quote:”To erase Tam David-West Boulevard is to tell a dangerous lie about who we are. It is to pretend that we no longer remember honour, that we no longer care about the rare men who made Rivers State proud.”

There are names that do not fade with time — they endure like echoes in the hills of memory, like rivers that never dry. Tamunoemi Sokari David-West is one such name. To attempt to erase it from the map of Rivers State is to wound the spirit of remembrance itself. The deliberate removal of the steel signs that once declared Tam David-West Boulevard is no mere act of neglect — it is a betrayal of history, an unspoken attempt to silence a voice that still teaches us what integrity means. For Tam David-West was not just a man; he was a moral compass in flesh and bone. His life was a lantern held high in a country struggling to see itself clearly. From the quiet sanctums of the University of Ibadan to the volatile chambers of power in Lagos and Abuja, he walked unbent — the scholar who would not sell truth, the minister who would not mortgage his soul. To erase his name from a road in the land of his birth is to declare that virtue is no longer welcome here.

That road — the grand link between NTA road and the Port Harcourt International Airport — was named after him for a reason. It symbolized movement, progress, and passage. Tam David-West was himself a bridge: between science and service, intellect and honesty, courage and humility. To strike out that name is to tear down the bridge between our noble past and the moral future we still hope to build. When Nigeria’s oil wealth became the golden snare that trapped men’s conscience, Tam David-West stood apart. As Minister of Petroleum, he refused the seductive gifts of oil magnates; he declined privileges that came wrapped in corruption. He wore simplicity like a medal, and truth like a robe. In an age of thieves, he remained a teacher. In a field of compromises, he remained whole. Shall we now bury that lesson beneath the dust of forgetfulness? A city tells its story through its street names.

Names are not just labels — they are memory made visible, value made public. To erase Tam David-West Boulevard is to tell a dangerous lie about who we are. It is to pretend that we no longer remember honour, that we no longer care about the rare men who made Rivers State proud. History does not forgive such silences. This quiet removal of his name is not accidental. It is the work of small minds afraid of great examples. It is an unholy attempt to kill memory because it still condemns mediocrity. But let them know — Tam David-West cannot be erased. His truth was not written on road signs alone; it is engraved on the conscience of all who ever believed that public service could be clean.He was a son of Buguma, a prince of the Kalabari Kingdom, yet he carried his royalty lightly. His true crown was knowledge; his true sceptre was conviction. As a virologist, he studied the world of unseen forces; as a statesman, he confronted the visible viruses of greed and hypocrisy.

Even when power imprisoned him, it could not diminish him. He emerged, as always, with his dignity intact.This fight is not for a signboard. It is for remembrance — for the preservation of a moral landmark. When a people begin to uproot the monuments of their best men, they invite darkness upon their future. When we forget Tam David-West, we lose not only a name but a mirror: the reflection of what Rivers people once were — strong, principled, unbending in truth. Once upon a time, Rivers State was the cradle of conscience — the home of Okilo, Obi Wali, Ken Saro-Wiwa, Diete-Spiff, and Tam David-West. They were the pillars of our collective dignity. To erase one is to weaken the others. We cannot afford to become a generation that builds roads but destroys remembrance. A city that forgets its heroes soon forgets itself. Today, the boulevard stands in silence.

The proud steel markers have been hewn down, yet a few businesses still bear his name — small flames of resistance in the wind of revision. Their signboards still whisper, Tam David-West Boulevard, as if the very ground remembers the truth the government forgets. Perhaps the asphalt itself mourns, but it also remembers. We owe it to our children to lift his name again — not only in metal and paint, but in civic memory. Let those signs rise taller, brighter, unashamed. Let them tell every traveller on that road that once there lived a Rivers man who served with clean hands, who spoke truth to power, who never bowed to corruption. That, indeed, is the Rivers spirit — fearless, dignified, incorruptible.“Don’t kill Tam David-West!” is not only a plea; it is a command from the heart of history. It is a cry against forgetfulness. It is a reminder that integrity is the greatest heritage any people can keep.

When we defend his name, we defend our own possibility of goodness. When we erase him, we erase a piece of our own honour. So let the signs return. Let the name Tam David-West Boulevard shine once more at NTA Road and Omagwa Roundabout. Let Rivers State rise above pettiness and reclaim its conscience. For names like Tam David-West do not die — they only wait for courage to call them back. To kill Tam David-West is to kill the Rivers soul. And that, we must never do.Amieyeofori Ibim is a seasoned Journalist, political analyst and public affairs commentator.

By: Amieyeofori Ibim

Opinion

Fuel Subsidy Removal and the Economic Implications for Nigerians

Published

5 days ago

October 24, 2025

The Tide

From all indications, Nigeria possesses enough human and material resources to become a true economic powerhouse in Africa. According to the National Population Commission (NPC, 2023), the country’s population has grown steadily within the last decade, presently standing at about 220 million people—mostly young, vibrant, and innovative. Nigeria also remains the sixth-largest oil producer in the world, with enormous reserves of gas, fertile agricultural land, and human capital.

Yet, despite this enormous potential, the country continues to grapple with underdevelopment, poverty, unemployment, and insecurity. Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS, 2023) show that about 129 million Nigerians currently live below the poverty line. Most families can no longer afford basic necessities, even as the government continues to project a rosy economic picture.

The Subsidy Question

The removal of fuel subsidy in 2023 by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has been one of the most controversial policy decisions in Nigeria’s recent history. According to the president, subsidy removal was designed to reduce fiscal burden, unify the foreign exchange rate, attract investment, curb inflation, and discourage excessive government borrowing.

While these objectives are theoretically sound, the reality for ordinary Nigerians has been severe hardship. Fuel prices more than tripled, transportation costs surged, and food inflation—already high—rose above 30% (NBS, 2023). The World Bank (2023) estimates that an additional 7.1 million Nigerians were pushed into poverty after subsidy removal.

A Critical Economic View

As an economist, I argue that the problem was not subsidy removal itself—which was inevitable—but the timing, sequencing, and structural gaps in Nigeria’s implementation.

Structural Miscalculation

Nigeria’s four state-owned refineries remain nonfunctional. By removing subsidies without local refining capacity, the government exposed the economy to import-price pass-through effects—where global oil price shocks translate directly into domestic inflation. This was not just a timing issue but a fundamental policy miscalculation.

Neglect of Social Safety Nets

Countries like Indonesia (2005) and Ghana (2005) removed subsidies successfully only after introducing cash transfers, transport vouchers, and food subsidies for the poor (World Bank, 2005). Nigeria, however, implemented removal abruptly, shifting the fiscal burden directly onto households without protection.

Failure to Secure Food and Energy Alternatives

Fuel subsidy removal amplified existing weaknesses in agriculture and energy. Instead of sequencing reforms, government left Nigerians without refinery capacity, renewable energy alternatives, or mechanized agricultural productivity—all of which could have cushioned the shock.

Political and Public Concerns

Prominent leaders have echoed these concerns. Mr. Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, described the subsidy removal as “good but wrongly timed.” Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party also faulted the government’s hasty approach. Human rights activists like Obodoekwe Stive stressed that refineries should have been made functional first, to reduce the suffering of citizens.

This is not just political rhetoric—it reflects a widespread economic reality. When inflation climbs above 30%, when purchasing power collapses, and when households cannot meet basic needs, the promise of reform becomes overshadowed by social pain.

Broader Implications

The consequences of this policy are multidimensional:

Inflationary Pressures – Food inflation above 30% has made nutrition unaffordable for many households.
Rising Poverty – 7.1 million Nigerians have been newly pushed into poverty (World Bank, 2023).
Middle-Class Erosion – Rising transport, rent, and healthcare costs are squeezing household incomes.
Debt Concerns – Despite promises, government borrowing has continued, raising sustainability questions.
Public Distrust – When government promises savings but citizens feel only pain, trust in leadership erodes.

In effect, subsidy removal without structural readiness has widened inequality and eroded social stability.

Missed Opportunities

Nigeria’s leaders had the chance to approach subsidy removal differently:

Refinery Rehabilitation – Ensuring local refining to reduce exposure to global oil price shocks.
Renewable Energy Investment – Diversifying energy through solar, hydro, and wind to reduce reliance on imported petroleum.
Agricultural Productivity – Mechanization, irrigation, and smallholder financing could have boosted food supply and stabilized prices.
Social Safety Nets – Conditional cash transfers, food vouchers, and transport subsidies could have protected the most vulnerable.

Instead, reform came abruptly, leaving citizens to absorb all the pain while waiting for theoretical long-term benefits.

Conclusion: Reform With a Human Face

Fuel subsidy removal was inevitable, but Nigeria’s approach has worsened hardship for millions. True reform must go beyond fiscal savings to protect citizens.

Economic policy is not judged only by its efficiency but by its humanity. A well-sequenced reform could have balanced fiscal responsibility with equity, ensuring that ordinary Nigerians were not crushed under the weight of sudden change.

Nigeria has the resources, population, and resilience to lead Africa’s economy. But leadership requires foresight. It requires policies that are inclusive, humane, and strategically sequenced.

Reform without equity is displacement of poverty, not development. If Nigeria truly seeks progress, its policies must wear a human face.

References

National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). (2023). Poverty and Inequality Report. Abuja.
National Population Commission (NPC). (2023). Population Estimates. Abuja.
World Bank. (2023). Nigeria Development Update. Washington, DC.
World Bank. (2005). Fuel Subsidy Reforms: Lessons from Indonesia and Ghana. Washington, DC.
OPEC. (2023). Annual Statistical Bulletin. Vienna.

By: Amarachi Amaugo