Opinion
The Riddle Of The “And”
It is now more than a month since the 2023 presidential election.
The election has been won and lost, and the certificate of return has been given to the winner, Bola Armed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC). The date of inauguration of the new government has already been fixed for May 29, 2023, in line with the nation’s evolving democratic tradition. In preparation for this epoch- making event, the victor of February 25, 2023, jetted off to France for a well deserved rest after spending time in the political trench. It won’t be out of place to also assume that Nigeria’s president- elect spent the time to drink deep from the fountain of wisdom in order to lead the largest black nation on earth, with its numerous ethnic groups, gapping religious and tribal fault lines, and intractable security situation.
The pulse of the nation indicates an uneasy calm, but it is certain, at least from the utterances of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) flag bearer, Atiku Abubarkar, and his Labour Party counterpart, Peter Obi, that there won’t be any major protest in the likes of the 2020 #EndSARS protest that brought the nation to its knees. Nevertheless, the unusual calm is a prelude to imminent legal fireworks, the likes the nation has never witnessed before. Already, the first runner up, Atiku Abubarkar of the PDP, and third place Peter Obi of the Labour Party have set the stage by filing their petitions at the presidential elections tribunal sitting in Abuja.The petition of the Labour Party and its candidate has five prayers; however, the second prayer is of particular interest in this discuss, and it reads as follows: “That it be determined that the 2nd Respondent having failed to score one-quarter of the votes cast at the Presidential election in the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, was not entitled to be declared and returned as the winner of the Presidential election held on 25th February 2023.”
It is clear that the impetus for this second prayer derives from Section 134(2) of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 (as amended), and particularly sub-paragraph (b) which provides that: “ A candidate for an election to the office of the President shall be deemed to have been duly elected where, there being more than two candidates for the election – (a) he has the highest number of votes cast at the election; and (b) he has not less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the election in each of at least two-thirds of all the States in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.”It is very surprising, but in any case, very interesting that the conjunction ‘and’ has been at the centre of the argument even before the President -elect was announced. In a very funny way, the ‘and’ puzzle reminds me of the case of the blind men and the elephant. For one, the animal was a long tail, for another it was a tux, yet for another, it was a very large ear, and so on. However, the elephant in this case is the constitution, and there are no blind men, rather learned men who go by the highly exalted title: Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) – and they are poised to put multifarious explanations to flight.
The law has no emotions, but we can be rest assured that the legal luminaries on both sides of the isle are set to make the elephant dance. But before the real fireworks begin, some of the renowned legal minds of our time are already thrilling anxious Nigerians with their own interpretation of Section 134(2) of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 (as amended), particularly sub-paragraph (b) which is the bone of contention. Most of them have been on TV and other platforms recently to help unlearned men like me make sense of the import of the conjunction ‘and’ as it is used in this particular statement: “he has not less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the election in each of at least two-thirds of all the States in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.”In their argument regarding this portion of the constitution, there is a point of convergence; however, there is also a sticky point of departure where the mathematics of the Constitution pitched them in diametrically opposed positions.
They are all in agreement, that Section 299(1) of the Constitution, which provides that the provisions of the Constitution shall apply to the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), as if it were one of the States of the Federation, with the implication that even though the FCT is not a state in the real sense, it is regarded as the 37th state.
For instance, Femi Falana, SAN, argues that by the combined effect of Sections 134 and 299 of the Constitution, a candidate shall be deemed to have won the Presidential election if he scores the highest number of lawful votes cast at the election, and 25% of lawful votes in 37 States or 36 States plus the FCT – stating that it is not compulsory, for a Presidential candidate to win the FCT. In fact, he went further to state that the FCT, is not the Electoral College of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. In support of this position, Professor Taiwo Osipitan, SAN, inferring from myriad legal precedence averred that that the FCT is part of the two-third spread contemplated in Section 134 of the 1999 Constitution.
With the intent that a candidate who has the highest number of votes and satisfies the 25% spread in not less than two-thirds of the States including FCT, is entitled to be declared the winner of the election, irrespective of the percentage of votes scored in the total votes cast in FCT.
Interestingly, and in line with the position that it is not compulsory for a presidential candidate to Win 25% of the votes at the FCT, Aikhunegbe Anthony Malik, SAN, argued that those who are offering an alternative interpretation of Section 132 (2) of the constitution to the effect that acquiring 25% of votes in the FCT is a compulsory requirement to be declared winner seem to overlook the essence, or significance of the conjunctive word ‘and’ employed therein. According to him, whenever the word ‘and’ is employed in law, “it denotes a conjunctive, and never a disjunctive meaning.”
Unfortunately, the above arguments are not caste and dry, because legal heavy weights like the former President of the Nigerian Bar Association, Dr. Olisa Agbakogba, SAN and Chief Mike Ozekhome CON, SAN, contend that, for a candidate to be declared winner of the presidential election it is imperative that he or she must acquire at least 25% of the votes cast in the FCT.
In his argument, Dr. Agbakogba opined that the literal interpretation of this section of the constitution is that a candidate must secure 25% of votes cast in 2/3rd of the entire 36 States of Nigeria and 1/4th (25%) of votes cast in FCT. According to him, the provision is clear, direct and unambiguous, such that you don’t need a Professor of Constitutional Law to comprehend.
He further maintained that the use of the word “and” had been held by the Supreme Court to be conjunctive, which implies that the conditions in Section 134(2)(b) are conjunctive and mandatory. Therein lay the riddle, because, Aikhunegbe Anthony Malik, SAN supported his argument with the conjunctive use of ‘and’ when employed in the constitution, as opposed to being disjunctive, but he arrived at a different conclusion. Similarly, even though Section 299 of the constitution formed a critical part of both arguments (which states that the FCT is to be treated as a State in Nigeria), Dr. Agbakogba posits that it is a general provision that has no bearing on Section 134. Hence, he concludes therefore that A general provision cannot override a specific provision – implying that since Section 134(2)(b) is a specific provision on the conditions for declaration of a candidate and the presidential winner at the polls, with the result of the general elections as published by INEC, the contest is still open, as none of the candidates has satisfied the legal threshold in Section 134.
Lastly, Chief Ozekhome has also asserted that by a judicial mathematical analysis, 2/3 of 36 States is equal to 24 States, and in addition, the FCT, Abuja. To buttress his position, he gave this analogy: “if I request to see 24 Corpers in my law firm And Okon, it means I want to see 25 persons in all; but Okon must be one of the 25 persons. So, if 25 persons in my law firm show up, without Okon, have I had all the persons I want to see? The answer is No. To satisfy my request, Okon must show up in addition to the 24, thus, making the 25 persons I desire to see. According to him, the jurisprudence behind this provision is to ensure that the President as the number one citizen of the Nation enjoys a widespread acceptance by majority of the people he seeks to govern, including those inhabiting the seat of power where he would govern from. Evidently, the letter of the law is the same, and available all, some interpretations are the same, yet renown legal pundits have arrived at different conclusion, thereby setting the stage for an interesting legal fireworks that promises to put this matter to rest once and for all when the Supreme court makes its pronouncement.
Nigerians are eagerly waiting for the legal fireworks to begin; the petitioners, namely Atiku Abubarka and the PDP, and Peter Obi and the Labour Party are ready. The President Elect and APC should be getting ready, we believe; but while Nigerians are unaware of the size of the war chest the President Elect and his party are putting together to defend their mandate, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has come out to tell Nigerians that after spending more than N300 billion to conduct the 2023 general elections, it has now allotted another N3 billion to defends its declared results. As you can imagine, the Nigerians are about to witness a legal clash of the Titans. Let it begin.
By: Raphael Pepple
Opinion
Rivers Politics: Lere Olayinka’s Cocktail Of Lies
In a calculated attempt to tarnish the reputation of Governor Siminalayi Fubara, Lere Olayinka, the self-styled Senior Special Assistant on Public Communication and Social Media to FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike, stormed News Central TV with a cocktail of lies, half-truths and unfortunate distortions. This desperate smear campaign demands a bold response to expose the true mastermind behind the political turbulence rocking Rivers State. Olayinka harped on the current situation of the Rivers State House of Assembly, highlighting the presence of only three (3) active members. Yet, he conveniently glossed over the real story of Martin Amaewhule and his co-defectors who cowardly abandoned their constituencies and their mandates by defecting to the APC without due consultation. These former legislators, by law, automatically vacated their seats, but Olayinka lacks the courage to admit this truth.
When asked about Wike’s involvement in Rivers State’s political turmoil, Olayinka could not deny the undeniable. Wike is not only a major player in this crisis but also its architect. His meddlesome tendencies and attempts to control the state from Abuja have been met with stiff resistance from Rivers people who are fed-up with his overreach. Olayinka’s claim that Wike elevated Governor Fubara from “a mere cashier” to governor reeks of pettiness. It is an insult to Fubara’s track record of service and to the Rivers people who overwhelmingly voted for him. The truth is, Governor Fubara was instrumental to any success Wike claims during his time as governor, especially in financial prudence and project execution, Olayinka can challenge me to a debate if in doubt. Mr. Olayinka falsely accused Governor Fubara of disobeying President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
The irony, however, is glaring. The real defiance came from those who President Tinubu called his “newborn babies,” only to disown him days later. Aside the impeachment attempt, Wike’s ill-advised push for these individuals to defect to the APC is at the root of the political mess they currently face. Olayinka’s admission that Fubara is the governor and wields the “red biro” underscores one truth: Governor Siminalayi Fubara is in Charge. While his employer may attempt to pull the strings of discord, Rivers people have declared unequivocally that the era of external interference is over. Sir Fubara is taking bold steps to restore dignity and prioritise the state’s interests. Also, Olayinka’s attempt to draw parallels between Rivers State and Kogi State only highlights his lack of understanding of Rivers politics. Rivers people are not Kogi people.
They will not accept a situation where commissioners or key appointments are dictated from only one man, as Wike attempted to do. Rivers people have spoken, and their stance is non-negotiable. Olayinka’s laughable claim that Governor Fubara is dining with those who opposed his emergence shows a lack of political depth. Almost everyone standing with Wike today—including Magnus Abe and Chidi Lloyd—at one time opposed his own governorship bid. Politics evolves and alliances shift. Governor Fubara is focused on governance, not on petty vendettas. Assuming, without conceding, that Governor Fubara did not address Rivers people during the campaign, the blame lies squarely on Wike, who perhaps never allowed him to speak. He almost succeeded in extending this overbearing tendencies into the governance of the state, but Rivers people are saying “No” to this meddlesome interference.
The glaring contradictions in Olayinka’s rhetoric can tell you why Fayose failed woefully in Ekiti State despite all his noise. Just like his principal, Olayinka has mastered the art of bluster without substance. When pressed on what Wike wants from Governor Fubara that he is not getting, Olayinka could not provide an answer. The truth is simple: Wike desires absolute control, but Governor Fubara and Rivers people have drawn the line. Olayinka’s interview on News Central TV was nothing but a desperate attempt to deflect attention from Wike’s political blunders and meddlesome tendencies. The records are clear: Governor Fubara is focused on the interests of Rivers people, while Wike and his cronies remain trapped in a web of personal ambition. The good news is that Rivers people know the truth. Governor Fubara is acting decisively and Rivers State is moving forward under his leadership. No amount of propaganda or falsehoods can change this fact.
John Martins
Martins wrote in from Port Harcourt.
Opinion
Fubara @ 50: Golden Sparkles And Magic Bullet
Men and women of goodwill are celebrating remarkable milestones in the life of Rivers State Governor, Sir Siminalayi Fubara. He turned 50 on January 28, 2025. His unwavering dedication, focus on excellence, effective advocacy beyond a single-focus “magic bullet” to governance with integrated approach that recognises multiple interrelated drivers of governance change, truly inspire the people. Rivers State is the second largest economy in Nigeria. It is hub of oil and the gas industry, and remains a major contributor to the country’s wealth. It is over such strong, powerful and strategical state, Governor Fubara superintends. At 50 years, he is gold sparkles and in a season of exhilarating jubilee. In 2024, his administration hosted investment summits. Manifest results now show inflow of multiplicity of foreign investments. Strategic partnership festers and the growth of Rivers economy is sustained. Investors enjoy tax moratoriums and land title issuance.
Jollification drumbeats are intense. Fulsome sound. Overreached with symphonic echoes. Scintillated strumming. The strings. Stroke of dexterity and bellowing melody, all so enthralling. Whether in Rivers or elsewhere in Nigeria, you will wriggle waists, do joyful handclaps or leap with hope-filled heart. Feet will do the hopping. There is comforting peace. The glean. A bland. Emphatically, Rivers people bare their hearts of gratitude to God. He enthroned Governor Fubara at at an auspicious time. The people are better off today than ever. The brutish political crisis erupted like a thief at night but was hushed by a watchful watchman. Because it is contained, the people are happier. More 3,066 persons got empowered with N3.6 billion loan facility on a single-digit interest rate of 7.5per cent per annum. It was made possible by a partnership between Rivers government and Bank of Industry (BOI). It offers support to small businesses, drives economic growth, promotes job creation and wealth generation efforts. Ultimately, it is to improve the standard of living of the citizens.
Happier citizenry. Civil and public servants got statutory promotion with consequential salary paid after being stagnated on a grade level for over a decade. In December 2023 and 2024, Christmas bonuses of N100,000 apiece, was paid to each worker, a gesture also extended to retirees. Governor Fubara is a leader with a pure human and godly heart. He had not confronted political violence with violence. No shade of political witch-hunting. No arrest on trumped-up charges. No politically motivated assassinations witnessed. The most insulted by political opponents. His reliance on God is legendary in a wild field of conscienceless political maneuverings, spewing of contradictory lies, threaded thickets of threats, mounted conspiracies to truncate governance and levels of insistence to cause stampede that intend to force a surrendering of the will of the people. All, came to nought. They have become like the mountains before Zerubbabel melting into wax.
What is seen is not indentured servitude. Governor Fubara stands in the gates firmly, defusing violet plots against the mandate of Rivers people. Steadied governance, ensured protection of life and property in a peaceful State. There is messianic balm, sufficiently applied to offer a soothing to frightened hearts, and calmed troubled nerves. Of course, nobody with a decent grasp of the complexity and deep-rooted nature of the crisis will believe that it will be resolved so easily. But you will need to know this also. Governor Fubara was born on a Tuesday in Opobo Town and bears unique traits of people born on Tuesday. Of note is his persistence on chosen course, strives with conviction and wholeheartedly drives on until desirable success is achieved. He is solidly courageous, shares no tent with fear because he must take the risks required to reaching his goals, which is why he faces the challenges head-on.
He is calm though, but makes no mistake about his dogged fighting spirit, calculative and straightforward spirit that wins squarely, and fairly. Four critical priority areas are at focus; healthcare, education, agriculture and road infrastructure development. He must win too, in truly empowering the people to attain quality living. In improving public sector education, the investment is holistic, almost equal attention given to basic education, post-primary education and tertiary education. Personnel, not less than 1000 apiece, are employed into universal basic education and post-primary levels. Staff recruitment done at Ignatius Ajuru University of Education and at Captain Elechi Amadi Polytechnic. A new Rivers State College of Education is in the offing plus 3000 more teachers to be recruited to improve the teacher: learners’ ratio.
Modern learning infrastructure and essential instructional materials are distributed to nursery, primary, and junior secondary schools in the 23 local government areas, which included Teachers’ notebooks, smart-board pens, dusters and marker pens, writing pens, textbooks covering all subjects, Phonetics textbooks, varieties of storybooks, records and diaries for junior secondary schools, school attendance registers. The health sector has received historic investments. 25 general hospitals have capacity strengthened to provide regular, quality healthcare. More health facilities like four zonal hospitals in Bori, Ahoada, Degema, and Omoku towns in four local government areas being remodelled, expanded and upgraded. A modern psychiatric hospital is nearing completion and will be equipped to provide dedicated neuro-psychiatric services. Already, 1,000 personnel are employed by the Rivers State Health Management Board while another 1,000 are engaged by the Rivers State University Teaching Hospital (RSUTH). This will bridge manpower gap.
There is a comprehensive agriculture transformation support programme pursued with the N31 billion allocated in 2025 budget to achieve food security, enhance job creation and facilitate economic growth. Some legacy road projects included the 15.6 km Port Harcourt Ring road and 12.5km Trans-Kalabari Highway Road. These critical infrastructure consolidate development efforts. Truly, at 50, Governor Fubara will have moments for deep reflection and be genuinely propelled to express gratitude to God for divine benevolence. He stands between dreams and aspirations, some achieved, others yet pursued. What is more, in these 50 years, he has given it his all, and still eager to grasp opportunities to live to fullest while delivering more quality service to the state, country and humanity.
Tamunobarabi Ibulubo
Ibulubo is of the Rivers State Television (RSTV), Port Harcourt.
Opinion
Nigeria’s Electricity Sector: Need For Restructuring
In mid October, 2024, our national electricity grid suffered three collapses just within a week, throwing many states of Nigeria in total blackouts. Right from independence, Nigeria has always set agendas for attaining steady electricity, but ends up failing to achieve that noble objective. The perennial challenge of providing reliable electricity across Nigeria is however no puzzle beyond humans, yet the sector remains backward, notwithstanding series of reforms and public expenditures. But at the centre of the failures from all past reforms, is a common factor – the reluctance by government, whether deliberate or inadvertent, to extricate itself from the operational lines of the business. The presence of Nigerian government in any business process, especially where it monopolistically occupies vital operational linkage, has proven to create bottlenecks that stifle efficiencies, and defeat the overall objectives.
This was evident in the telecommunications sector, as it is in the petroleum and power sectors. Take for instance, the current policy framework that overshadowes electricity business across Nigeria, where in the name of privatisation, government deliberately butchered off, and separately sold vital organs of the national electricity industry, in an arrangement where the generating companies (GenCos) do not have licences to transmit and distribute generated power, and distribution companies (DisCos) have no licences to produce the sole commodity they sell, while the federal government through the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), monopolistically retains transmission trades between GenCos and DisCos.The insertion of TCN between the private businesses of power generation and distribution, destroys benefits derivable from privatising electricity productions in Nigeria.
With the GenCos and DisCos answerable to the separate managements while the TCN reports to the Federal Ministry of Power, Works and Housing, it is obvious that the unbreakable chain of commands needed for seamless business operations was designed for disarray. Besides, government also solely holds the stakes in gas supplies needed for much of Nigeria’s 16,384 MegaWatts installed capacity. Due to inadequacy of gas supplies, the GenCos produce about 8,415MW, out of which, due to TCN’s inefficiency, only about 4,000MW get to DisCos. However, among the three loosely bound entities in Nigeria’s unholy marriage of electricity production, the GenCos appear more upbeat at investing for increased capacity but are dragged by delivery challenges from the TCN on the one hand, and poor revenue returns from the DisCos, on the other.
The failure of TCN to deploy modern surveillance and field data acquisition technologies to maintain network reliability, has left its facilities prone to vandalism. It does not encourage GenCos who take the major production risks that they can not deal directly with consumers. In the prevailing situation in which DisCos, being closest to power consumers harvest the collective revenue, the opaque nature of that crucial assignment as currently being conducted, gives room for under-reporting.The electricity business like any other, should project transparent prospects of profits to inspire undertakings in investment risks, and it is only operational frameworks that assure investors of end-to-end process integrity that can encourage the deployment of total commitments. Discos’ obvious reluctance at metering, nor upgrading distribution facilities for efficiency, gives no incentives to GenCos to increase investments in power generation.
It does not also help that TCN’s Market Operations (MO) department passes revenue trickles from DisCos, unto GenCos without enforcing collection transparency on the former. Most of Nigeria’s electricity transmission network infrastructure were installed more than 50 years ago. Since inheriting the transmission assets in the 2005 privatisation, and further restructuring in 2013, TCN’s Transmission Service Provider (TSP) department which is responsible for grid construction and maintenance has not done much to expand network capacity in readiness for increased generation. Neither has its System Operations (SO) department, responsible for stabilising operations, upgraded its frequency management and switching capabilities, but still relies on manual switching instead of investing in Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems that respond swiftly to changing grid frequencies.
It was not surprising therefore that a usual process fluctuation that came from uploading increased power generation into the national grid had overwhelmed SO’s manual switching capability, leading to the grid collapse of October, although Minster of Power alluded to the fact that the inability of TCN’s aged infrastructure to absorb extra power caused explosions at Jebba sub-station, leading to instabilities that collapsed the grid. Which ever be the case, the buck stops at the TCN, and by extension at government. One may then question the benefits derivable from contracts signed by the Buhari administration with Siemens of Germany in 2019. System automation is undeniably the core expertise of Siemens, and the deployment of the company’s switches would have handled grid fluctuations to prevent any collapse. Despite the huge budget allocations that go into the ministry of power, it is obvious that government processes – encumbered by bureaucracy, politics, paucity of funds and lack of business savvy – is entangling TCN’s abilities at keeping pace with its private partners.
So why should government create such a clog in the wheels of progress? Moreso, it has never been known that government declared financial profits from its years of investments in the power sector, nor are the social benefits apparent. Rather than hold unto an asset that continuously drains scarce finances at no benefits, while creating bottlenecks to processes, government should completely hands-off the industry, focus on its regulatory roles, and draw tax accruals. According to estimates by the World Bank, the failure of reliable power supplies in Nigeria costs yearly losses of $29 billion to companies who had to produce their own power, and is a major reason most companies close down in the country, or have migrated elsewhere, despite our human resource potentials and Nigeria being a huge market. The current Nigeria Electricity Supply Industry (NESI) structure, in which government-owned TCN is sandwiched between disunited GenCos and DisCos, is causing conflict of interests, unsustainable and ensures a tie of stagnation.
The electricity production framework should be restructured, even if it means partitioning the national grid, into a form that gives power companies combined and seamless abilities to generate, transmit and distribute power directly to their consumers, as being experimented by the Geometric Group in Aba.
Joseph Nwankwor
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