Opinion

Periscoping 2024 Budget Proposal

Published

2 years ago

December 11, 2023

President Ahmed Bola Tinubu, penultimate Wednesday presented to the National Assembly for deliberation and approval, the 2024 appropriation bill, tagged “Budget of Renewed Hope.”The president proposed an expenditure estimate of N27.5 trillion for the 2024 fiscal year with a total recurrent overhead of N18.17 trillion (a debt-service projection of N8.25 trillion, plus non-debt recurrent expenditure of N9.92 trillion), representing 66.07 percent of total budget, while capital expenditure estimate is N8.7 trillion, a 31.64 percent of total budget. What comprises the remaining 2.29 percent, about N629.75 billion, remains unclear.The president stated that the projected budget deficit of N9.18 trillion would be financed from fresh borrowings amounting to N8.88 trillion (N7.83 trillion conventional loans, plus N1.05 trillion from multilateral and bilateral loans), and about N300 billion proceeds from privatisation.
Mr President’s budget speech was conspicuously silent on the expected revenue sum for the fiscal year 2024, but after reviewing the revenue landscapes, hinted on current tax and fiscal policy reviews to enable the federal government increase revenues, from a revenue to GDP ratio of less than 10 percent, to 18 percent. The 2024 revenue expectation could however be figured-out by deducting projected budget deficit from the total budget, a calculation that gives N18.32 trillion. This gives a revenue increase of 74.64 percent from this year’s N10.49 trillion. Debt servicing at N8.25 trillion is now 45 percent of Nigeria’s revenue.The above analysis shows the dire state of our economy. Going by Mr President’s proposal, even if Nigeria meets its revenue target for 2024, it can not finance its overhead obligations without borrowing. Nigeria is headed towards selling-off national assets to pay for basic needs, and borrowing in addition, to pay debts, finance extravagant overheads, alongside hopes of executing vital capital projects.
According to a World Bank report, Nigeria’s debt profile as at second quarter of 2023 stood at N87.38 trillion. But President Tinubu appears to still be in celebration mood, having secured his own “turn to rule.” Hardly had he dropped his presentation, and he who was preoccupied in his speech with the COP 28 climate summit in the UAE, zoomed-off to Dubai with a crowd of 1,411 delegates. Officials now claim government only sponsored 422 delegates. Given our predicaments, the expenditure for that number is wasteful. The harsher economic climate at home calls for more circumspection. This nation stands in uncommonly difficult times, wherein the utmost financial prudence is needed to stop the slide into deeper crises. The national assembly, and indeed all arms and tiers of government, should adopt more realistic approaches towards cutting down cost of governance by weeding out extraneous costs.
Extravaganzas like the N5 billion for presidential yacht, N19 billion for state house vehicles and N57.6 billion spent on Toyota SUVs for 360 house members who already enjoy bogus allowances, are few out of many outrageous profligacies. Government should also rid its capital project contracts of padded costs, to ensure value for money allotted. Resources saved could be invested in crucial development projects, pay-off national debts, shore-up external reserves which have become heavily depleted, or increase the the poor wages of ordinary workers. It has become usual to hear reports of borrowed funds earmarked for specific projects being looted or misdirected. Already, former federal lawmaker, Shehu Sani, has warned against spending the humongous N3.2 trillion budgeted for security and defence on frivolities, saying that the fund “should not be wasted on building event centres, hotels, and shopping malls, while terrorists are killing people every day in the country.” The requisite equipment and protection should be provided to the rank and file who risk their lives under harsh elements to protect lives. Their food and other welfare should be readily available to enhance professional efficiency and effectiveness.
Apart from the judicious use of defence budgets, the federal government should help curb criminality in the country by enabling job availability and food security, to help its hard-pressed populace make genuine livelihoods. The spiralling economic challemges of the past few months have made most Nigerians, who are forced daily to cut down on basic necessities, to now view the harsh years of Buhari’s government as glorious. According to a report, the nation’s service chiefs, led by Chief of Defence Staff, General Christopher Musa, during a parliamentary inquest a few weeks ago, shocked a House of Representatives plenary when he warned that “People are hungry. No matter how well you tell them to keep the peace, they will not because they have to eat and it aids criminality.” The service chiefs stressed that official corruption, lack of good governance and political will, are the real vectors of insecurity, leading to security personnel being overstretched. Emphasising, another said, “We (soldiers) are not magicians.” According to them, Nigeria has more than 1,000 unmanned border openings in about 4,000km borderlines shared with our Sahelian neighbours through which cross-border crimes and small arms proliferate into the country. Banditry and kidnapping in the north-west, north-east and north-central are therefore making farming impossible and escalating food prices. In the south-east ,‘unknown gunmen’ are almost carving-out enclaves of their own. Reports say about 629 lives have been lost to violent attacks within 45 days of Tinubu’s government.The federal government could resolve the south-east crises through adopting non-combative approaches by respecting existing court orders. With tensions doused, military personnel and expenditures being wasted in guerrilla conflicts could be put to other uses.
These considerations on security become essential because the N3.2 billion defence and security budget is the highest ever, and represents 11.64 percent of total budget. Government should not just throw money at problems without the necessary enablement towards effective security.As for Mr President’s assertion that “we are attempting to draw water from a dry well,” I beg to differ. We are rather drawing water from a richly endowed well that has become infested with so many brazen drainages, so much so that it appears dry. Mr president should use the powers available to his office to plug these leakages to make our commonwealth serve every Nigerian, equitably.The 2024 budget is envisaged on an oil production capacity of 1.78 million barrels per day (bpd), which is still about 320,000 bpd below the production records of President Jonathan’s days. Eliminating oil thefts, all illegal minings and sharp practices at the various offices of government should make more resources available for good governance and boost the economy.
Regrettably, the likelihood of the presented budget being pruned by our parliamentarians appears slim going by previous trends. In the 2023 budget for example, former President Buhari proposed an estimate of N20.51 trillion but got N21.83 trillion approved on reciprocity, a figure which is now above N24 trillion following recent supplementary approvals. With some members already singing praises to Mr Tinubu, many would rather fall over themselves to lobby for juicy constituency project allocations. It is an anomaly, in the first place, for legislators to be executors of projects, whereas their primary duty is to make laws and exercise oversight on institutions of government. Vested interests inspired by the introduction of the concept of constituency projects appear to be a soft bribe that is eroding the ability to discharge those sacred duties. If parliamentarians who were hailing Mr President on the floor of parliament did so due to the perceived jump in presented budget figure from N20.51 trillion for the 2023 budget, to N27.5 trillion, they may now have a rethink. Going by official exchange rate of N436.57/USD on which the 2023 budget was based, N20.51 translated to $46.98 billion, while at N750/USD at present, N27.5 trillion budget for 2024 translates to $36.67 billion, which rather represents a 22 percent reduction.With the dollar now hovering arround N1,200/USD in the black market, if politicians insist on their bogus allowances, then projects, the economy and the masses would face more austerity.

By: Joseph Nwankwor

Opinion

Should The Internet Go Bust

Published

4 days ago

November 3, 2025

The Tide

Quote:”. Whereas it sounds apocalyptic, yet experts have long warned that a total internet collapse, whether from cyberwarfare, global technical failure, or coordinated attacks on undersea cables, could paralyze the world far beyond imagination”

We now live in a world that so much relies on technology, especially on digital communication networks and data services. Virtually every aspect of our life depends on the efficient functioning of machines. In view of this reliance, imagine waking up to a world where the internet simply goes dark. For advanced countries where the functionality, monitoring and data storage of surveillance, security and nuclear installations, all rely on electronics and networks, the disruption could be catastrophic. On the other hand, for developing nations like Nigeria where government’s response is usually slow, the implications would be socially and economically disastrous. It would imply the sudden evaporation of all the modern conveniences we have taken for granted. No online banking. No emails. No mobile transfers. No WhatsApp messages, Twitter feeds or digital government portals.

The collapse would expose a dangerous dependency, the centralization of personal data. In Nigeria’s multi-biometric systems, the Bank Verification Number (BVN), the National Identification Number (NIN), and SIM registration for mobile networks, are all cloud-based. With no internet, access to these databases would be lost. Banks could not verify customers; telecom operators could not authenticate SIMs; and government agencies would be unable to issue new IDs or validate old ones.In Nigeria, over 80% of financial transactions now occur digitally, thanks to the rapid adoption of fintech platforms such as Opay, PalmPay, Paga, and the Central Bank Nigeria’s eNaira initiative. Assets of companies worth trillions of naira are also stored digitally and transacted on the Nigerians Stock Exchange. Like other transactions, these have no certified paper backings other than electronic storages.

It means that the wealth and wellbeing of millions now lie at the mercy of machines. According to the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS), in 2024 alone, the value of electronic payments in Nigeria reached ?600 trillion. Whereas it sounds apocalyptic, yet experts have long warned that a total internet collapse, whether from cyberwarfare, global technical failure, or coordinated attacks on undersea cables, could paralyze the world far beyond imagination. A total internet blackout would instantly freeze the banking system as banks lose interconnectivity, making transfers, withdrawals, and payments impossible. Fintech companies would go offline, cutting off millions from access to their digital wallets, while Point-of-Sale (PoS) operators, who depend on network connections for every transaction, would be stranded.The economy would revert overnight to cash dependence.

But cash, already scarce due to the CBN’s currency redesign and digital push, would not circulate fast enough to meet demands. Markets would collapse into panic, and trust in banks could erode within hours. Modern governance in Nigeria has increasingly depended on digital infrastructure, using e-government portals to handle licensing, pension records, procurements, revenue collection and budget management. An internet collapse would send governance back to the analogue age. Ministries would lose coordination, digital files would be inaccessible and online recordkeeping systems would fail.For ordinary Nigerians, the consequences would be deeply personal. Salaries paid through electronic transfers would go into limbo. Traders on Jumia, Konga, and social media marketplaces would lose their livelihoods overnight. Health and other insurance policies that currently dependent on cloud records and telemedicine would be truncated.

Even more troubling, a prolonged blackout could corrupt or erase data stored in unsecured local servers. Without connectivity to global backups, entire records, financial histories, health data, and school records, could be lost. For millions around the globe, digital amnesia would mean loss of identity, wealth and social status. Without communication, rumours would fill the void, potentially triggering civil unrests, misinformation, or even national security crises that may lead to uprisings in many countries.In a world where WhatsApp has replaced the post office and Zoom serves as boardrooms, digital communication collapse would feel like the death of modern society. Businesses would halt meetings, journalists would lose sources, students would be cut off from online learning, and diaspora remittances and family ties would suffer. Even voice calls that depend on internet routing would be impossible.

The silence would be deafening, not just socially but economically, because communication fuels productivity. Without it, markets stall.The collapse of the internet would expose how deeply our daily survival has come to depend on invisible digital threads. If the web were to go dark tomorrow, it would not just dim our screens, it would extinguish commerce, governance, and connection itself. Already, fallouts from increasing cyber-attacks on undersea cables or satellite networks show the fragility of the situation.To preempt these eventualities, developing countries must therefore, plan to build digital resilience. Critical data should have offline backups within national borders. Banks and fintechs must maintain local intranets or satellite-based alternatives to the public web. Radios, SMS-based, and offline mesh communication networks should be installed as alternative fallback channels.

Proactive protection of key infrastructure must become a national priority, and not reactive fire-fighting. As the internet becomes the nerve centre of modern civilization, developing economies like Nigeria, which strives for inclusion and growth, should avoid being ensnared into a blind spot by rapidly digitalizing into over-dependence. And the question is not whether the internet could collapse, but whether we can survive it when it does. A society that entrusts everything to the cloud must first learn how to breathe without it.

By; Joseph Nwankwor

Opinion

Transgenderism: Reshaping Modern Society

Published

4 days ago

November 2, 2025

The Tide

Quote:”While some hail transgenderism as a triumph of individual freedom and self-expression, others harbour deep concerns about the implications of this phenomenon.”

Often times, people tend to be about the concept of cross-dressing and transgenderism While cross-dressing refers to the act of wearing clothing and accessories typically associated with the opposite sex, often for entertainment, self-expression, or personal satisfaction and cross-dressers may identify with their birth sex and may not necessarily experience distress or discomfort with their gender, transgenderism, on the other hand, refers to having gender identity differ from the sex a person is naturally assigned at birth. Transgender individuals may identify as male, female, non-binary, or another gender identity that aligns with their internal sense of self. Transgenderism is often accompanied by a desire to transition, which may involve hormone therapy, surgery, or other medical interventions. However, while some cross-dressers may also identify as transgender, not all cross-dressers are transgender, and not all transgender individuals cross-dress.

We have heard of a few Nigerian individuals who have identified as transgender or non-binary, even though they may not have publicly denounced their original gender. The case of Okuneye Idris Olanrewaju, popularly known as Bobrisky, is one no longer hidden. A Nigerian social media personality and crossdresser, Bobrisky has gained a large following online. While not openly identifying as transgender, Bobrisky has been known to challenge traditional gender norms. Another known personality in this regard, is Denrele Edun. The later is a Nigerian television host, actor, and model who has been known for his androgynous appearance and style. Denrele has also not publicly identified as transgender but has been open about his non-conformity to traditional gender norms. Onyx Uzo, a Nigerian non-binary artist and writer, has been open about their gender identity.

The transgender movement has really gained unprecedented momentum in recent years, sparking intense debates and discussions across various spheres of society. While some hail transgenderism as a triumph of individual freedom and self-expression, others harbour deep concerns about the implications of this phenomenon. As the world grapples with the complexities of transgenderism, it is essential to engage in a nuanced and multifaceted examination of the issues at stake. To begin with, it is crucial to acknowledge that transgenderism is a deeply personal and complex issue, affecting individuals and families in profound ways. While some people may identify as transgender due to a genuine sense of discomfort with their biological sex, others may be driven by factors such as mental health issues, trauma, or social pressure.

It is essential to approach each individual experience with empathy and understanding, recognizing that there is no one-size-fits-all explanation for transgenderism. However, as we strive to be compassionate and inclusive, we must also consider the broader implications of transgenderism on society. One of the most pressing concerns is the erosion of traditional sex distinctions and the redefinition of gender. Proponents of transgenderism argue that gender is a social construct, and that individuals should be free to identify as they choose. However, this perspective neglects the biological and anthropological realities of sex and gender. The consequences of blurring the lines between male and female are far-reaching and profound. Women’s rights and spaces are being compromised by the inclusion of biological males who identify as females.

Women’s sports, bathrooms, and shelters are being redefined to accommodate transgender individuals, often at the expense of women’s safety and dignity. Furthermore, the transgender movement has been linked to a range of mental health concerns, including depression, anxiety, and suicidal ideation. Rather than encouraging individuals to embrace a transgender identity, we should be providing them with compassionate and evidence-based care that addresses the underlying issues driving their desire to transition. In addition, the push to normalize transgenderism has significant implications for children and adolescents. The increasing trend of diagnosing children with gender dysphoria and administering hormone blockers and cross-sex hormones raises serious concerns about the long-term effects on their physical and emotional health.

It is also essential to examine the role of ideology and politics in shaping the transgender movement. The promotion of transgenderism as a social justice issue has led to the suppression of dissenting voices and the marginalization of those who hold differing views. This climate of intolerance and censorship is antithetical to the principles of free speech and open inquiry. Moreover, the transgender movement has been criticized for its lack of scientific rigor and its reliance on anecdotal evidence. Many experts argue that the current diagnostic criteria for gender dysphoria are flawed and that the treatment options available are often inadequate. The lack of longitudinal studies and the dearth of data on the long-term effects of hormone therapy and surgery are particularly concerning. The implications of transgenderism on the family and society are also significant.

The redefinition of gender and marriage has led to a reevaluation of traditional family structures and relationships. While some argue that this shift is necessary and liberating, others worry about the potential consequences for children and society as a whole. Howbeit, the transgender conundrum is a complex and multifaceted issue that requires careful consideration and nuanced analysis. While we must approach each individual’s experience with empathy and understanding, we must also examine the broader implications of transgenderism on society. By engaging in a thoughtful and informed discussion, we can work towards creating a more compassionate and inclusive society that respects the dignity and humanity of all individuals.As we move forward, it is essential that we prioritize critical thinking, intellectual honesty, and open inquiry.

We must be willing to ask difficult questions, challenge prevailing narratives, and engage in respectful dialogue with those who hold differing views. Only through this process can we hope to arrive at a deeper understanding of the complex issues surrounding transgenderism.

By: Sylvia ThankGod-Amadi

Opinion

A Renewing Optimism For Naira

Published

2 weeks ago

October 27, 2025

The Tide

Quote:”……in 2024 alone, Nigeria imported N14.14 trillion worth of goods from China, compared to China’s N3 trillion imports from Nigeria.”

Nigeria’s national currency, the Naira, is creating a new buzz as it sets on rising trends following years of astronomical slides in the recent past. Just within a few months ago, naira’s trajectory charted almost a straight course, strengthening from N1,636.71/$ on April 10, 2025, to N1,465.68/$ on October 2, 2025. But financial analysts appear divided over the future fate of the local legal tender.While analysts like the Forbes and Renaissance Capital Africa (RENCAP) deride naira’s current trends as being unsustainable, Bloomberg sees a sunnier side. However, evolving economic landscapes strongly suggest that the naira might be charting a sustainable path of resilience. For more than four decades, the naira had never experienced favourable Foreign Exchange (FX) tussles.

Suffering under skewed supply and demand tensions against foreign currencies, the value of the naira had procedurally depreciated. It got worse when, at the height of subsidized petroleum products import-dependence, subsidies got suddenly withdrawn in May 2023 as the present government took over office. Barring local production of the products, coupled with poor export earnings, demands for scarce foreign currencies surged at all FX windows as product importers competed to make overseas payments. The result was cataclysmic. The naira depreciated rapidly against the dollar, falling from N460.7/$ in May 2023 to N1,706/$ in 2024. Hardships propagated across the entire Nigerian economy in ripples of hyper-inflation as is still being felt. The initial response from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) was knee-jerk and unsustainable, as the regulator kept throwing its store of foreign reserve into FX markets to quench the ensuing inferno.

Though the naira showed buoyancy at the expense of depleting reserves, the CBN was criticized against the hopelessness and unsustainability of such artificial floats. Thankfully for the local currency, after months of fire-fighting, the CBN, aided by other lucky developments, may have stumbled unto some formulae to weather the storms. Emerging econometrics now suggest that the economy may be in recovery, and the naira appears to be charting a more optimistic course, even as the apex bank still prods it. The lower oil production data of around one million barrels per day as at May 2023, has improved to around 1.51 million barrels per day at the moment. Surely, the fight against oil thefts is rewarding the economy with surpluses unencumbered by Nigeria’s debt-mortgaged oil futures.bSecondly, a changed petroleum products sourcing landscape, berthed by new-found local refining capacity at Dangote Refinery, if not strengthening the naira, must be tipping the balance of FX pressures in its favour.

While asserting its ability to fully satisfy local demands, the Dangote Refinery also hit a remarkable milestone when it shipped its first cargo of gasoline to the United States of America last month, drawing-in huge FX. Earlier, the refiners had shipped to Asia and West Africa, in a significant shift that has transited Nigeria from being a net-importer of petroleum product, to a net-exporter. Also, improvements in the non-oil exports are increasing the inflow of foreign currencies to Nigeria. Nigerian cocoa and other agro-products especially, got higher demands as crop diseases resulted in poor crop yields in neighboring West African countries. It should be noteworthy that CBN’s experiments with Naira-Yuan trade swaps with China may not have been of much favour. Though on-going trade swap arrangements between Nigerian and China which enable some settlement in naira and yuan, may ease dollar pressures, the huge trade imbalance between Nigeria and China may replace any gains with new yuan pressures.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2024 alone, Nigeria imported N14.14 trillion worth of goods from China, compared to China’s N3 trillion imports from Nigeria.

However, the CBN could be given credits for its bold reforms at the Foreign Exchange market that created a single Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) in October 2023, which replaced the former Investors’ and Exporters’ window, and later adopting the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) in December 2024. These steps successfully narrowed the gap between official FX rates and the black market. Even as the measures may not directly detect the balance of currency demands and supplies, improved transparency and liquidity raised confidence that is boosting foreign remittances via official channels. Added to improved exports, it is evident that the extra liquidity gives spontaneous buoyancy to the naira, in ways CBN’s panicked throwing-in of dollar into FX markets could not have.

This is why, when the CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, announced during the 302nd monetary policy committee meeting that, “The second quarter 2025 current account balance recorded a significant surplus of $5.28 billion compared with $2.85 billion in first quarter of 2025,” there is need for him to identify significant drivers. The CBN deserves commendation also, for incrementally growing Nigeria’s Foreign Reserve savings from $34.39 billion as at May, 2023 to $42.40 as at October 2, 2025. The strength of a nation’s reserves reflects its ability to meet international payment obligations without straining the stability of its legal tender, and also serves as part of risk assessment criteria that determines its borrowing costs. Increasing reserves is projecting greater external resilience for Nigeria, which reflects in Moody’s upgrading, this year, of Nigeria’s rating from ‘Caa1’ to ‘B3.’

With renewed investor confidence, foreign investments may be heading towards Nigeria as ripples from the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NGX) suggest. Following recent interest rate cuts in the US, foreign investors appear to be shifting appetites towards Nigerian portfolios. Improved reserve is also helping Nigeria at the Eurobond market, where the yield rates Nigeria pays on its loans, have fallen from above 8 percent in early 2024 to just over 5 percent by mid-2025. However, even as the N1,706/$ exchange rate of last year, compared to the current N1,465.68/$, may seem cheery, it is still a far cry from the N460.7/$ of May 2023, when this administration took over. Government and the CBN need to push further to shore-up greater reserves, and to build local and international assurances that attract job-creating investments for local production. Comparatively among its pairs, South Africa’s reserve is $70.42 billion, Algeria’s, $64.574 billion and Egypt’s, $49.04 billion.

Nigeria, which is being projected for a $1 trillion economy by 2050, should be focusing on $100 billion external reserves. Apart from reserves, Dangote local refining shows that local production is pivotal to the value of local currencies. Nigeria needs to improve security and infrastructure to reassure subsisting industries, and improve ease of doing business, in order to attract industries. Though Naira’s path of recovery this time is sustainable, the factors that aid it need to be sustained.

By: Joseph Nwankwor