Oil & Energy
FG, Oil Producers Agree On Crude Supply To Local Refineries
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The Federal Govern
ment and Crude Oil Producers in Nigeria have agreed to work toward a sustainable supply of crude oil to local refineries under a market-determined pricing system.
The aim is to ensure that while the operators do business optimally, the refineries are not starved of feedstock.
The agreement, reached at a Virtual Meeting held with the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), and all the international oil companies (IOCs), was on the status review of the Framework for Seamless Operationalisation of Domestic Crude Oil Supply Obligation Template.
The producers, under the umbrella of the Oil Producers Trade Section (OPTS), agreed to concede to a framework that would be mutually beneficial, ensuring that local refineries are not strangulated due to off-the-curve prices.
Speaking with newsmen, Komolafe explained that contrary to a report that the decision was to placate certain interests, it was indeed targeted at ensuring energy security for the country.
“It is the job of the regulator to interface between the producers and the refiners; it is a delicate balance because we do not want one to overrun the other because that will lead to problem.
“If we don’t have product, then there will be energy gap in supplying the industry and this will not be a palatable situation for all, and if we have robust supply, but they shut down the upstream and we can’t get crude production, then there is also a problem. So, we, as regulator, are simply trying to maintain the delicate balance”, he said.
Oil & Energy
NUPENG Mobilises Members For Nationwide Strike
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Irked by alleged persistent and orchestrated attacks on the nation’s labour movement by the Nigeria Police Force (NPF), the Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers, (NUPENG) has mobilised its entire members to prepare for a nationwide industrial action should the Police arrest the President of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), Comrade Joe Ajaero.
Reacting, the General Secretary, NUPENG, Comrade Afolabi Olawale, in a Circular to all its branches and members, asked oil workers nationwide, to be ready for action in the case of any eventuality and to wait for further directives from the leadership.
The Circular reads in part, “The leadership of our great union, finds the invasion of the National Secretariat of the NLC by some security agencies and the recent allegations levelled against Comrade Joe Ajaero, the NLC President, by the Nigeria Police Force very intriguing and deeply concerning.
“And as a very committed and strong affiliate of the Nigeria Labour Congress, we cannot but express our strongest reservations over these unwholesome development and situations.
“In the light of these and consequent upon the resolutions of the National Executive Council, NEC, of the NLC, we earnestly write to put all our members on notice to await further directive on appropriate lines of actions as we keenly observe and noting the unfolding situation concerning the invitation of the NLC President by the Nigeria Police.
“Our solidarity remains constant, for the union makes us strong. The struggles continue. And we shall overcome”.
Recall that the Nigeria Police Force (PF), on Monday, August 19, invited Ajaero for questioning over allegations of criminal conspiracy, terrorism financing, treasonable felony, subversion and cyber crime.
The Deputy Commissioner of Police, IRT, had directed in a letter that Ajaero should appear at the IRT office, Force Headquarters on August 20, and warned that he (Ajaero) would be arrested if he failed to honour the invitation.
The Nigeria Labour Congress, through its lawyer, Femi Falana, SAN, promptly wrote to the Inspector-General of Police, IGP, giving reasons why the NLC President could not honour the August 20 date.
Falana, however, assured that Ajaero would honour the Police invitation on August 29 requesting that the Police furnish him with details and nature of the allegations.
Oil & Energy
Oando Completes $783m Acquisition Agip Oil Company
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Oando Plc says it has completed the acquisition of 100 per cent shareholding interest in the Nigerian Agip Oil Company (NAOC) from Eni, for a total consideration of $783 million, including consideration for the asset and reimbursement.
A statement signed by the Company’s Secretary and Chief Compliance Officer, Ayotola Jagun, and released on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, stated that the acquisition marked a significant milestone in Oando’s long-term strategy to expand its upstream operations and strengthen its position in the Nigerian oil and gas sector.
The transaction, the statement revealed, would increase Oando’s current participating interests in OMLs 60, 61, 62, and 63 from 20 per cent to 40 per cent.
It stated that, “the transaction will also increase Oando’s ownership stake in all NEPL/NAOC/OOL Joint Venture Assets and infrastructure, which include forty discovered oil and gas fields, of which 24 are currently producing, approximately forty identified prospects and leads, twelve production stations, approximately 1,490 km of pipelines, three gas processing plants, the Brass River Oil Terminal, the KwaleOkpai phases 1 & 2 power plants (with a total nameplate capacity of 960MW), and associated infrastructure”.
It added that based on 2022 reserves estimates, Oando’s total reserves stand at 505.6MMboe with the transaction to deliver a 98 per cent increase of 493.6MMboe, bringing the total reserves to 1.0Bnboe; and the transaction is immediately cash generative and will contribute significantly to the cash flows of the company
Speaking, Group Chief Executive, Oando Plc, Wale Tinubu said, “today’s announcement is the culmination of ten years of toil, resilience, and an unwavering belief in the realisation of our ambition since the 2014 entry into the Joint Venture via the acquisition of Conoco-Philips Nigerian Portfolio.
“It is a win for Oando, and every indigenous energy player, as we take our destiny in our hands, and play a pivotal role in this next phase of the nation’s upstream evolution”.
Tinubu continued, “with our assumption of the role of operator, our immediate focus is on optimising the assets’ immense potential, advancing production and contributing to our strategic objectives.
“This we will do while prioritising responsible practices and sustainable development in ensuring a balanced approach to our host communities, and environmental stewardship as we complement the nation’s plan to boost production output”.
On the future, the Oando CEO assured that the Company would continue to pursue strategic diversification opportunities within the broader energy sector that provide enhanced growth and value creation for its stakeholders, particularly in clean energy, agri-feedstock sector, energy infrastructure and mining.
Oil & Energy
Standard Chartered: Oil Demand Not As Bearish As Imagined
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Oil prices have been on the backfoot in the current week, pulling back from gains in recent weeks, thanks to easing geopolitical fears and seemingly never-ending demand concerns.
On Monday, United States Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, announced that Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, had accepted a cease-fire proposal to stop the war in Gaza, but on Thursday, sources close to the White House reported that such a deal is once again out of reach as Hamas is unlikely to accept the Israeli terms, which include the occupation of the Philadelphi corridor, which Israel claims has given Hamas a strategic lifeline.
Crude oil futures fell significantly on Wednesday, with WTI crude falling to $72 per barrel and Brent crude falling briefly into the $75 dollar handle. Prospects of weak demand in China offset any gains from risks to supply, with government data showing that crude demand in the country fell 8per cent Y/Y in July.
Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have been able to gauge crude demand on a global scale following the release of Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI) data on 19 August.
According to StanChart, global oil demand in June clocked in at a healthy 103.01 million barrels per day (mb/d), an all-time high.
Following JODI revisions, StanChart estimates that May demand came in at 102.68 mb/d, the second-highest monthly average after June. The average demand growth for the second quarter was 1.521 mb/d y/y, close to StanChart’s forecast for 2024 full-year growth (1.514 mb/d).
The only bearish data point in that report is that demand growth has been slowing, with June demand growth clocking in at 788 thousand barrels per day (kb/d), a deceleration from 1.267 mb/d in May and 2.129 mb/d in April. StanChart has predicted that global demand will remain above 103 mb/d for the rest of 2024, before falling to 101.9 mb/d in January due to seasonality.
Meanwhile, global crude supply growth remains muted, with June supply increasing by 160 kb/d m/m to 102.097 mb/d, well below December 2023’s all-time high of 103.162 mb/d.
Constrained global supply growth can largely be chalked up to weak non-OPEC growth, particularly by the U.S. Oil production in the United States is set to grow just 2.3per cent in the current year as shale producers stick to production discipline and goal to return capital to shareholders.
Crude exports from U.S. ports have averaged 4.2 million barrels per day so far this year, up a mere 3.5per centY/Y compared to a robust 13.5per cent growth in 2023. This year’s growth clip is the lowest since 2015, when the country lifted a 40-year federal ban on the export of domestic crude.
U.S. shale producers are simply not willing to drill more. High decline rates for shale wells usually sets in soon after commissioning, meaning extra well completions are required to offset declines from existing wells if output is to be maintained.
Earlier in the year, StanChart reported that the horizontal rig count started to decline sharply in early 2023 and is currently 20per cent below its post-pandemic peak after flatlining for the past six months.
The analysts point out that whereas the completion of previously drilled wells and technical change provide an offset, a significant fall in activity, more often than not, leads to a lagged decline in growth.
The big rally in Europe’s natural gas prices that kicked off in July appears to have run out of steam thanks to high inventory levels and easing supply jitters. Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, were quoted at €37.22 per megawatt-hour on Monday at 1315 hrs ET, largely unchanged over the past 10 days but considerably higher than the price a month ago at €30.10 per megawatt-hour. The gas price rally in the United States has been more subdued, with Henry Hub prices trading at $2.15/MMBtu from $2.01/MMBtu a month ago.
According to the latest Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) data, EU gas inventories are on the verge of moving above the EU Commission’s 90% of capacity target 10 weeks earlier than the 1 November deadline.
Gas inventories stood at 104.23 billion cubic meters (bcm) on 18 August; good for a fill rate of 89.8per cent. German storage is already at 93.3per cent of capacity, well ahead of the country’s 1 September target of 65per cent.
Last month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicted that U.S. natural gas prices will rally strongly in the second half of the current year thanks to production cuts.
According to the EIA, the Henry Hub natural gas spot price will average almost $2.90 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2H24, up from $2.10/MMBtu in 1H24, good for a nearly 40 per cent increase.
Kimani writes for Oilprice.com.
By: Alex Kimani
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