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Drought Dims Hydropower’s Promise

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Hydropower is the world’s single largest source of green energy. On a global scale, hydropower plants produce more energy than all other renewable power sources combined.
However, the growth rate of new hydropower capacity has tapered off in recent years, and the sector is plagued by serious current and future problems, from increased incidents and intensity of droughts in a changing climate, and major negative environmental externalities associated with mega-dams.
Hydropower offers a critical benefit that other renewable energies don’t. It creates energy around the clock unlike solar and wind energy, which are dependent on weather patterns and therefore highly variable.
For this reason, hydropower is an extremely attractive option for river-endowed nations that want to boost their clean energy production levels without compromising grid stability or energy security. But in recent years, investment in expanded hydro has dropped off.
“In the last five years the average growth rate was less than one-third of what is required, signaling a need for significantly stronger efforts, especially to streamline permitting and ensure project sustainability”, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported last year.
It continued that “Hydropower plants should be recognised as a reliable backbone of the clean power systems of the future and supported accordingly”.
But in recent years hydropower has not proved to be as reliant as its investors had hoped. Widespread droughts associated with climate change have caused rivers to run lower or even dry up entirely, causing seriously negative (literal) downstream effects for hydropower production plants.
In 2022, intense droughts in China’s Yangtze River basin slashed developed hydropower potential (DHP) by 26%, causing critical shortages and spurring an uptick in coal-fired power production.
In the last few years similar problems have cropped up in Brazil, Ecuador, the United States, and the Mediterranean region, too.
Critically, these are not isolated or one-off incidents; the risk of similar extreme droughts in the future rises by nearly 90% in a number of climate change scenarios, notably SSP585.
“Since September, daily energy cuts have lasted as long as 14 hours”, the New York Times recently reported from Quito, Ecuador.
“Highways have turned an inky black; entire neighborhoods have lost running water, even internet and cell service”, it added.
Not only does this have enormous implications for day-to-day life, these blackouts reverberate through the national economy. It is estimated that for every hour of blackout, Ecuador loses $12 million in productivity and sales.
Climate scenarios are just one of the factors deterring investors away from new hydropower mega-projects.
In the United States, investments in large hydropower plants all but drief up due to the simple fact that “there are no suitable river locations in the US for new ones”, according to recent reporting from CleanTechnica.
And the ones that do exist are associated with major ecological disruptions, changing flood patterns and blocking salmon runs for tens of millions of fish, among other environmental issues.
“There are certainly rivers in other countries which could be tapped using conventional hydropower technology, but not in the US”, Frederick Hasler wrote for CleanTechnica.
“Going forward, current US hydro needs to be maintained, but cannot be significantly increased”, he said.
And there are indeed major projects being planned in the rivers of other countries, but these are not without their own problems.
In the Congo, plans for the world’s largest hydropower project have been stalled for years after much enthusiasm at the outset. Some blame the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s poor governance for the Grand Inga dam’s failure to launch, while others point to a revolving door of international partners, a blisteringly high up-front cost of around $80 billion in one of the world’s poorest nations, and “deep concerns about the project’s environmental and social impact” according to reporting from the BBC.
But the need for the Grand Inga is enormous and impossible to ignore. Around 600 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa lack access to power completely, making electrification a critical step for economic and social development in the region.
But Africa does not have the luxury of emitting greenhouse gases indiscriminately as the developed world has done over the past 150 years.
Instead, the continent is under enormous international pressure to “leapfrog” over fossil fuels and straight to the development of clean energy systems.
It’s hard to imagine how this will be possible without large-scale hydropower.

By: Haley Zaremba

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Reps Launches Probe Into N200bn CBN Loan To DISCOs 

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The House of Representatives has launched an investigation into the disbursement and utilisation of the N200billion Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) loan allocated for the National Mass Metering Programme (NMMP) to Electricity Distribution Companies (DISCOs).
Chairman, House Committee on Public Assets, Rep. Uchenna Okonkwo, disclosed this in a statement in Abuja.
He confirmed that a 19-member sub-committee had been inaugurated to probe the matter thoroughly.
Okonkwo recalled that the NMMP, initiated in 2020, was designed to provide free electricity meters to Nigerian consumers through the Licensed Electricity Distribution Companies (DISCOs).
He said the programme was a joint initiative of the CBN, the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), and other stakeholders in the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI), aimed at eliminating estimated billing, improve transparency in energy usage, and enhance customer satisfaction.
Speaking on the launch of the NMMP, the Rep said the programme was to be implemented in three phases to ensure the reduction of collection losses and improve market remittances in the industry.
“Under the pilot phase of the programme’s implementation, CBN commenced with the sum of N59.280 billion for procurement and installation of one million meters in 2020 at an interest rate of 9 per cent after a two year moratorium.
“Preliminary research on the NMMP has shown that instead of the pronounced amount of N59.280 billion naira for the phase 0, what was released was N55.4 billion for procurement and installation of 962,832 meters instead of one million meters pronounced by CBN”, he noted.
Okonkwo stated futher that concerns have been raised regarding repayment, with the committee noting discrepancies in the repayment of the funds by the DISCOs.
According to Okonkwo, “Research has also shown that the eleven Electricity Distribution Companies who received the loan have paid back to CBN as refund for the N54.4 billion they received in 2020 without mentioning the 9 per cent interest on the loan.”
The lawmaker, however, said the subsequent phases of the programme, which were expected to significantly expand metering across the country, have stalled, explaining that Phase 1, which was to be funded by the CBN and Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) for 1.5 million meters, and Phase 2, expected to be financed by the World Bank for four million meters, are yet to take off.
He said the House, exercising its constitutional powers under Sections 88(1) and (2) of the 1999 Constitution, resolved to investigate the matter with a view to safeguarding public interest.
According to him, the sub-committee is expected to scrutinise all aspects of the NMMP funding, from disbursement and meter procurement to distribution and repayment mechanisms.
The 19-member committee comprises Reps. Obed Shehu, Ali Shettima, Abel Fuah, Salisu Koko, Ahmed Munir, Sani Umar Bala, Gbefwi Jonathan, Abdulmaleek Danga, Chinedu Obika, and  Okunlola Lanre.
Others include Reps. Abass Adekunle, Akinosi Akanni, Obuzor Victor, Peter Akpanke, Ngozi Lawrence, Ogah Amobi Godwin and Ikeagwuonu Onyinye.
It would be noted that the NMMP was expected to be a game-changer in Nigeria’s power sector by reducing estimated billing, enhancing energy accountability, and restoring consumer trust.
However, the current revelations point to implementation failures and possible mismanagement of public funds.
Analysts believe that the outcome of the House probe could lead to reforms in electricity metering policy and strengthen regulatory oversight of loan disbursements to DISCOs.

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“Renaissance Energy, NNPC JV Donate ICU Equipment To RSUTH 

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Renaissance Africa Energy Company Limited and its joint venture partners, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), have donated vital medical equipment and essential drugs to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of the Rivers State University Teaching Hospital (RSUTH).
Among the equipment are three ventilators, a laser therapy machine, as well as significant supply of seed stock drugs targeted at enhancing the hospital’s capacity to provide critical care and ensuring consistent drug availability.
Speaking at the Handover Ceremony at  Renaissance Energy Headquarters, in Port Harcourt, the General Manager, Relations and Sustainable Development, Renaissance Africa Energy, Igo Weli, said, “The gesture by Renaissance and our partners is to enhance the capacity of the hospital to provide critical care to patients in need; improve the training of upcoming healthcare personnel; and provide support to dedicated healthcare professionals in their mission to save lives and improve patient outcomes.”
The Chief Upstream Investment Officer, NNPC, Oluwaseyi Omotowa, noted that the donations were part of a broader social intervention strategy of the Renaissance-operated joint venture.
Omotowa, who was represented by the Lead, Stakeholder Relations, NNPC Upstream Investment Management Services, Mrs. Uzo Ejidoh, further said “the JV has a deliberate corporate social responsibility strategy to serve the people.
“This is an unchanging commitment, hence our steadfast support and investment in social impact projects for the healthcare sector to continue to transform lives”.
Recieving the donations, the Chief Medical Director, RSUTH, Professor Chizindu Alikor, stated that the hospital was committed to the delivery of excellent healthcare along with research and training.
Alikor said, “The teaching hospital is on an upward trajectory. The ICU facilities were over stretched, and we are excited that our request to Renaissance and its partners for assistance was granted.
The CMD expressed the hospital’s confidence in Renaissance’s capacity and people-centric interventions, especially as it concerns Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in the health space.

By: Lady Godknows Ogbulu

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Tight Now, Loose Later: Oil Futures Flash Warning

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Last week, OPEC+ announced it will once again accelerate the pace of unwinding of production cuts, with output targets for June increasing by 411,000  barrels per day, equivalent to three monthly increments.
This follows a similar move in April, with the organization appearing willing to stay the course amid low oil prices and fears of weakening demand.
We reported that global crude inventories remain low enough, thus giving OPEC+ a window to scale back its voluntary cuts until the market surplus finally arrives.
Saudi Arabia appears intent on “punishing” OPEC+ rascals such as Kazakhstan and Iran for repeatedly violating their quotas.
Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have reported that the latest OPEC survey of secondary sources reveals that Kazakhstan’s crude oil output clocked in at 1.852 mb/d in March, 384 kb/d above its OPEC+ quota.
Further, the country also failed to keep its promise to cut 38 kb/d in compensation for overproduction in March, bringing its total overproduction to 422 kb/d.
The same scenario is expected to unfold in the coming months. Kazakhstan produced 240 kb/d more y/y in March, a sharp contrast from the other eight OPEC+ members who produced a combined 612 kb/d less.
And now, the oil futures markets are sending a dire warning that oil bulls could find themselves in trouble quite soon due to a combination of the OPEC+ output hike and Trump’s tariffs.
Oil futures curve has formed a rare “smile” shape, a structure Morgan Stanley says was last seen briefly in February 2020 just before the infamous oil price crash.
On Wednesday, Brent futures’ July contract was trading at a premium of 74 cents to the October contract, a market structure known as backwardation, foreshadowing immediate tight supply.
However, prompt prices from November have formed a contango, with forward prices flipping to a discount, indicating oversupply as traders predict Trump’s tariffs will eventually weaken oil demand. Having backwardation and contango together leads to the rare “smile” shaped curve.
According to the latest available data by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil inventories stood at 7.647 billion barrels in February, down from 7.709 billion barrels for last year’s corresponding period and close to the bottom of their historical five-year range.
Meanwhile, refiners’ appetite for crude is climbing ahead of the peak driving season in July and August, “Refinery maintenance in the Atlantic basin will start to taper off, increasing oil demand (for refining)… Summer driving should provide some support,” BNP Paribas analyst told Reuters.
Global oil demand is expected to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day in the third quarter of the current year, up from an average of 104.51 million bpd in the second quarter, the IEA has predicted.
The 1 million bpd output increases announced by OPEC+ so far, coupled with another 400 kb/d increase in July, almost matches the predicted demand increase, implying oil markets will not face a surplus till late in the year.
Meanwhile, oil prices jumped in Thursday’s session after the Trump administration announced it has struck a trade deal with the UK. Brent crude for July delivery was up 2.7% to trade at $62.75/bbl at 12.50 pm ET while WTI crude contract for June delivery added 3.0% to change hands at $59.86 per barrel. However, terms of the deal appear to fall well short of the “comprehensive” package Trump earlier touted.
According to Trump, UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, will further reduce non-tariff barriers and fast-track U.S. goods into his country.
Meanwhile, another solid week of jobless claims underscored the Federal Reserve’s ongoing unwillingness to cut rates. U.S. jobless claims fell 13,000 to 228,000 for the period ending on May 3.
Continued claims, however, clocked in at just over 1.9 million, near the highest levels since 2021, suggesting workers are still finding it difficult to secure new jobs as the economy stalls.
That said, commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have predicted that path of least resistance for oil prices is lower in the coming months, with oil prices to remain low before beginning a gradual recovery later in the year as U.S. oil output declines.
StanChart, however, says there’s some technical support in the short-term, with fundamentals remaining fairly positive. Recently,  StanChart cut its 2025 oil price forecast to $61/bbl from $76 and also lowered its 2026 forecast to USD 78/bbl from $85 citing Trump’s tariffs.

By: Alex Kimani

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