Politics

2015 Presidency: The Odds

Published

11 years ago

January 19, 2015

As the February 14
Presidential election draws nearer by the day, and parties put finishing touches to their strategies to either retain or gain power, permutations as to which party waxes more or gains more ground are rife. As events unfold, there is little doubt that the race will be between the ruling Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) and the leading opposition party, All Progressives Congress (APC).
Following the emergence of incumbent president, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GEJ) and former Head-of-State, General Mohammadu Buhar (GMB), as the candidates of the PDP and APC respectively, the battle for Nigeria’s presidency has begun in earnest.
As expected, both presidential candidates have as much chances of emerging victorious as their followers chose to portray or make keen observers believe. One certainty, however, is that at the end of the day, only one aspirant will emerge. So, what are the odds against, or in favour of the two presidential gladiators.?
For GEJ, there is no doubt that the catch phrase, “A breath of fresh air” that was the crux of his pre-2011 campaign that saw him coast to victory in the 2011 election seem to have fizzled out. So have all the goodwills and promises of a better Nigeria.
Pundits have expressed the belief that the disillusionment trailing the GEJ presidency garnered so much momentum because it basically originated from what is largely seen as within the inner chambers of the PDP, the very heart of the party caucus.
Key areas in which GEJ has been identified to have given a lackluster attention and hence deemed to have failed could be summerised into corruption and insecurity, and a major advocate in this wise is former president, Olusegun Obasanjo.
Being a key figure in PDP, whatever the former president says cannot be dismissed as mere frivolity. Comparatively, there is the belief that no matter what can be said about former President Obasanjo, he at least made some efforts against corrupt officials when he was in charge, even if such efforts were often viewed as sectional and tokenistic.
In his recent autobiography titled “My Watch”, Obasanjo said of corruption in GEJ’s first tenure; “under Jonathan we seem to have gone from frying pan to fire. If in the past corruption was in the corridors of power, it would seem now to be in the sitting room, dinning room and bedroom of power”.
The former president further drove his point when he alleged that incremenating corruption-related documents against a former governor was ordered to be removed from a file because the culprit was close to GEJ.
As a result of his perceived inability to address issues of corruption, therefore, many Nigerians, as amplified by the opposition, do not see GEJ as ready to fight corruption, which no doubt, has over the years proven to be the bane of Nigeria’s woes, both within and outside the shores of Nigeria.
The same reason is given for GEJ’s inability to secure lives and properties in his domain, as exemplified by the increasing and more deadly activities of the terrorist sect, Boko Haram, which had sent thousands to their early grave, and has held over 200 Chibok secondary school girls hostage since April 15, 2014.
In a summarizing manner, the founder of Adoration Ministry, Enugu Rev. Fr. Ejike Mbaka, during his end-of-year mass on the eve of 2015, said GEJ had surrounded himself with very corrupt officials. As a result, the President, he said, has turned a blind eye to their corrupt activities while millions of Nigerians wallow in abject poverty and endless insecurity.
According to Mbaka, “Jonathan has ruled for six years. We need a change. NEPA (electricity) is not working because of corruption. The privatization of public companies has not yielded any fruit because of corruption.
“Jonathan surrounded himself with very corrupt officers who advise him. Nigerians are sick and tired of wasting innocent lives without government doing enough to stop the destruction.
“Up till now, nobody knows the whereabouts of the innocent Chibok girls kidnapped by Boko Haram and we say we have a government that cannot guarantee the welfare, safety and security of the citizens.
“Nigerians are calling for change. We need change. We don’t want to move from bad luck to bad luck. Nigerians want to move from bad luck to good luck”, he said.
While acknowledging the stand by the opposition in a piece titled “Can Jonathan survive this blitzkriegs?” in This Day, Simon Kolawole identified four categories of GEJ’s critics: Opposition figures and other political opponents; those who lost out in the political game; those northerners who are still bitter that Jonathan “hijacked” power after the death of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in 2010; and those who have neither partisan nor sectional sentiments against Jonathan as they are sincerely critical of certain aspects of his stewardship.
Kolawole had no qualms with opposition figures and other political opponents because they must do their bidding.
“There is no way APC would come out and praise Jonathan; that is political suicide. They want power. They want his job. Theirs is to say Jonathan or PDP has not done well and that if Nigerians give them a chance, they would do much better.
“This is a universal characteristic of opposition politics. You can argue that they do not always work with facts, but what is politicking? PDP would do the same if APC was in power”, he said.
For those who lost out in the political game, the writer observed that many politicians, who supported GEJ in 2010 and 2011, feel abandoned, “they feel like a deflated orange: squeezed, sucked and dumped. They feel Jonathan treated them to a one-night stand, whereas they wanted an affair.
“Some wanted appointments; others simply desired respect and recognition. But they are bitter that Jonathan jilted them after getting what he wanted. In no time, they became his sworn enemies”, he said.
The northerners who are embittered that GEJ hijacked their right after the death of President Yar’Adua feel so because they say when they conceded power to the South in 1999, they did it with the understanding that Obasanjo would do only one term. But he did the maximum two terms.
Consequently, PDP, as the ruling party, agreed to north/south power rotation every eight years. Unfortunately, Yar’Adua died prematurely.
“Jonathan took over and refused to let so. To some northerners, there is nothing Jonathan can do to make them happy. Even if he turns Nigeria to Dubai, their message is clear; Thank you and just get out of here”, he said.
The last category, which have neither partisan nor sectional sentiments against Jonathan are merely genuinely bothered at his handling of critical issues such as corruption and Boko Haram.
“In truth, Jonathan lost a lot of sympathizers with the Chibok School girls’ saga, which turned into the ‘Na only you waka come’ tragicomedy in the corridors of power”, Kolawole concluded.
As a word of advise, and in seeming appreciation of the political scenario, Kolawole noted: “It is not in the best interest of President Jonathan to lump all his critics together. As a leader, he has to sit down, analyse his critics and their criticisms, and work out his actions and reactions appropriately.
“He sure has millions of critics, like any other leader. People criticize with different motives. People have different agenda even when they are saying the same thing. Unfortunately, you will miss the massage when you lump everyone together and respond to every critic and criticism with cynicism and antagonism”.
As is usual with incumbency and opposition in politics, the weakness of the ruling government is what opposition latches upon to score its points, and the APC, seem to be doing a good job of it.
Against an allegedly “weak” GEJ, the APC, which is the leading opposition party, has fielded a perceived “strong” candidate in GMB, based on his track record. One key factor that constitutes a plus to GMB is his brief tenure as Military Head of State from the 1st of January 2004 to August 2005.
Alongside his second in command, late Major-General Tunde Idiagbon, GMB launched the popular War Against Indiscipline (WAI), through which they attempted to set a new road-map for the country’s politics.
They introduced strict economic and political policies that have been widely described as “Buharism”. It saw him refuse to adopt the IMF conditionality to devalue the naira. While his critics blamed him then for the resultant job losses, closure of some businesses, and decline in living standards, his admirers commended him for adopting unique economic measures that enabled his government to reduce inflation, curb import of needless goods and curtail crude oil theft.
Given his history as a leader with a strong character, GMB is also described as incorruptible and hence seem as the messiah that Nigeria needs to combat the ailing corruption-infested Nigerian economy.
Ironically, GMB’s critics also consider his strong personality as a minus, saying that he would not be a listening president like GEJ. But his followers have expressed strong feelings that the former Army General’s popularity is increasing by the day, and before February 14 where the pendulum for the presidency will swing to will be too glaring not to see in favour of the APC candidate.
Moreso, as is popularly said,There is little doubt that Nigerians want to change, one that would loosen the stranglehold of corruption in the nation’s polity. What is, however, in contention is who represents that change so yearned for. Is it a repented GEJ, or a brand new GMB?

Soibi Max-Alalibo

Prof. Attahiru Jega, INEC Chairman

Politics

Senate Urges Tinubu To Sack CAC Boss

Published

2 days ago

February 27, 2026

The Tide

The Senate yesterday urged President Bola Tinubu to remove the Registrar-General of the Corporate Affairs Commission, Hussaini Magaji, over what lawmakers described as a persistent refusal to appear before its Committee on Finance.

The resolution followed a motion raised by Senator Orji Uzor Kalu during a session where members of the President’s economic team were present for engagement with the committee.

Tension rose at the commencement of the meeting when agency heads were introduced and senators observed the absence of the CAC Registrar-General, who had been invited to account for the commission’s activities, particularly on revenue matters.

Moving the motion, Kalu expressed anger over what he termed repeated disregard for legislative oversight, accusing the CAC boss of consistently avoiding invitations to appear before the committee.

He said, “Since I came to the Senate, this CAC man has always given excuses that he is in the Villa or going to London. He is not above the law. This man is not coming to the Senate. Look at the ministers of finance and budget. They are both here. We summoned them and they came.

“But this man thinks he’s bigger than the Senate. We’re not going to take that rubbish again. He had refused on so many occasions to honour our invitation to appear before this committee. We have issues with the reconciliation of the revenue of CAC.

“I move a motion that the man should be reported to Mr President and ask for immediate removal because we cannot continue with him. Is that what we’re doing here? He should come and give us an account of what he had done.”

The Chairman of the Senate Committee on Finance, Senator Sani Musa, corroborated the concerns, pointing to unresolved discrepancies in the reconciliation of the commission’s revenues.

He noted that despite several invitations, the registrar-general had failed to show up to address the issues raised by senators.

“The registrar-general of the Corporate Affairs Commission has refused on so many occasions to honour the calls, invitations or summons of this most important committee.

“There are only about three committees that are in the constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and the Committee of Finance is one of those committees. Sections 88, and 89 have given us these powers.

“And as registrar-general, we have issues with the reconciliation of their revenue. Anytime he is invited, he will give us one reason or another, and he will send junior officers to come and talk to the Senate. That cannot be accepted,” he said.

In a further show of frustration, Senator Adams Oshiomhole proposed that the Senate escalate the matter by withholding approval of the CAC’s 2026 budget pending the registrar-general’s personal appearance before the committee.

Oshiomhole also suggested that the commission be restrained from spending its internally generated revenue without prior approval of the national assembly.

“This senate should decline to appropriate anything in the 2026 budget until we are satisfied that he has accounted for previous money and spending properly.

“And should he spend money that is not appropriated, he should be heading to Kuje prison,” Oshiomhole said.

The motion urging the President to remove the CAC Registrar-General was subsequently put to a voice vote and adopted.

The development underscores renewed assertiveness by the Senate in exercising its constitutional oversight functions, particularly over revenue-generating agencies.

The Corporate Affairs Commission, which regulates companies and business registrations in Nigeria, is a key contributor to non-oil revenue, making accountability and transparency central to its operations.

News

Amend Constitution To Accommodate State Police, Tinubu Tells Senators

Published

2 days ago

February 27, 2026

The Tide

President Bola Tinubu has appealed to the leadership of the 10th Senate to amend the constitution to provide a legal framework for the establishment of State Police to tackle insecurity nationwide.

President Tinubu made the appeal during an interfaith breakfast with senators at the Presidential Villa in Abuja, yesterday.

The president said that the creation of State Police has become urgent to address Nigeria’s evolving security challenges, strengthen grassroots policing, and enhance states’ capacity to respond swiftly to threats within their jurisdictions.

He noted that a decentralised policing structure would complement existing federal security architecture and promote intelligence-led, community-focused law enforcement.

“We are facing terrorism, banditry, and insurgency. But we will never fail to make a right response to this cause. What I will ask for tonight is for you (Senators) to start thinking how best to amend the constitution to incorporate the State Police for us to secure our country, take over our forests from marauders, and free our children from fear,” he said.

The president commended the cordial relationship between the Executive and the Senate, saying that unity is needed to defeat terrorism and banditry in the country.

“It is a good thing that we are working in harmony, we are looking forward to a country that evolves, a country that takes care of its citizens and protects all.

Tinubu thanked the Senate for its unflinching support towards achieving various economic reforms of his administration, especially the fuel subsidy removal and tax reform policy.

“I have a lot of credit for bold reforms. Without your collaboration and inspiration, those reforms would not be possible. We are reformists together. What we gave up and what we stopped is monumental corruption in the subsidy system. We don’t want to participate in monumental corruption and arbitrage foreign exchange.

You don’t have to chase me for dollars; you could see what Nigeria is today. You should be proud, and I am glad you are. What we are enjoying is a stable economy, and prosperity is beckoning us. We need to work hard, and this attendance means a lot to me,” the president said.

President of the Senate, Godswill Akpabio, commended the president for hosting the leadership of the Senate to the Interfaith breaking of fast.

He commended President Tinubu for providing the visionary leadership the nation needs at this critical time, stating that the administration’s bold reforms have now brought more revenue to governors at the sub-national level for the development of critical infrastructure.

The Senate President prayed for the administration, and for the nation’s peace and prosperity.

Politics

FCT COUNCILS’ ELECTIONS: PDP WINS GWAGWALADA CHAIRMANSHIP AS APC SECURES AMAC, BWARI

Published

6 days ago

February 23, 2026

The Tide

Alhaji Mohammed Kasim, the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), has won the Gwagwalada Area Council chairmanship election in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

Philip Akpeni, the Returning Officer of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), announced the results on Sunday morning.

Alhaji Kasim polled 22,165 votes to defeat Alhaji Yahaya Shehu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who polled 17,788 votes.

Alhaji Biko Umar of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) scored 1, 687 to come in third place.

“I am the returning officer for the 2026 FCT Area Council, Gwagwalada chairmanship held on Feb. 21, 2026,” Akpeni said.

“That Mohammed Kasim of PDP, having certified the requirements of the law, is hereby declared the winner and is returned elected.”

In the Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC), Hon. Christopher Maikalangu, the APC candidate, was declared the winner of the chairmanship poll with 40,295 votes.

Andrew Abue, the Collation Officer for AMAC, said Hon. Maikalangu, who is the incumbent AMAC chairman, was returned elected having scored the highest number of votes cast.

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) came second with 12,109 votes, while the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) polled 3,398 votes.

According to Abue, the total number of valid votes in the chairmanship poll was 62,861, while the total votes cast stood at 65,197.

He added that the number of registered voters in AMAC was 837,338, while the total number of accredited voters was 65,676.

Meanwhile, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has declared Mr. Joshua Ishaku of the All Progressives Congress (APC) as the winner of the Bwari Area Council Chairmanship election.

Announcing the result on Sunday in Bwari, the Returning Officer for the election, Prof. Mohammed Nurudeen, stated that Ishaku polled a total of 18,466 votes to emerge victorious in the February 21, 2026 poll.

“I am the Returning Officer for the 2026 FCT Area Council, Bwari chairmanship held on Feb. 21, 2026. That Joshua Ishaku, having satisfied the requirements of the law, is hereby declared the winner and is returned elected,” Nurudeen said.

According to the results declared, the candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) secured 4,254 votes, while the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) polled 3,515 votes to place second and third respectively.

The declaration adds to the series of results emerging from the 2026 FCT Area Council elections, as political parties assess their performance ahead of future contests.

INEC UPLOADS 2,602 OF 2,822 FCT CHAIRMANSHIP RESULTS ON IReV

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had uploaded 2,602 out of the 2,822 expected polling unit results from Saturday’s chairmanship elections in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) as at 5:55am on Sunday, data retrieved from its Result Viewing Portal (IReV) showed.

According to The Tide source, the figure represents an overall upload rate of about 92.2 per cent across the six area councils of the territory.

A council-by-council breakdown indicates that Municipal Area Council recorded the highest number of submissions in absolute terms, with 1,309 of 1,401 polling unit results uploaded, representing 93.43 per cent.

In Gwagwalada Area Council, 330 of the expected 338 polling unit results had been uploaded, representing 97.63 per cent — the highest upload rate among the six councils.

In Bwari Area Council, INEC uploaded 463 of 485 polling unit results, translating to 95.46 per cent.

In Abaji Area Council, 129 of 135 polling unit results had been uploaded as at 5:55am, representing 95.56 per cent.

In Kwali Area Council, 164 of the expected 201 polling unit results were available on the portal, representing 81.59 per cent.

In Kuje Area Council, 207 of 262 polling unit results had been uploaded, representing 79.01 per cent — the lowest rate among the six councils as at the time of review.