Oil & Energy
‘Oil Market Fears Recession More Than Tight Fuel Inventories’
The oil market saw an other volatile week as bullish and bearish catalysts collided.
There is a growing fear that a potential recession could weigh heavily on oil demand.
Overall, the market appeared more concerned about the rising odds of a recession rather than falling U.S. fuel inventories to multi-year lows.
The oil market wrapped up another volatile week of hectic trading, swinging up and down in a $5 a barrel range as it was pulled between bullish and bearish catalysts in both directions every day.
Both benchmarks hit an eight-week high early on Tuesday, only to pull back later in the day and join on Wednesday the sell-off on Wall Street triggered by renewed investor concerns about a possible recession as top retailers flagged soaring costs and supply chain bottlenecks in their quarterly earnings reports.
In the week to May 20, oil market participants paid more attention to “recession fear” headlines than to the weekly U.S. petroleum status report, which showed another draw in gasoline inventories and higher implied domestic demand, which, despite record-high gasoline prices in America, is only set to rise further as we enter the summer driving season.
“The market is reacting to all sorts of different headlines hour to hour, and the movement in oil markets on a day-by-day basis getting even more exaggerated,” Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston, told Reuterson Thursday, when oil settled higher after the U.S. dollar weakened, following a plunge in crude prices in earlier trading on the same day.
Overall, the market appeared more concerned about the rising odds of a recession rather than falling U.S. fuel inventories to multi-year low levels for this time of the year.
Investors and speculators pulled back from oil, with crude being a riskier asset, as concerns about a more pronounced global economic slowdown—and even a recession—intensified and dampened risk appetite.
“The possible easing of U.S. sanctions against Venezuela could be considered another bearish factor, coming in addition to the Hungarian veto on the EU’s plan to ban Russian oil,” Sebastien Bischeri, Oil & Gas Trading Strategist at Sunshine Profits, wrote inInvesting.com.
The EU is still struggling to persuade Hungary to accept an EU embargo on Russian oil imports. Adding to bearish factors were fresh COVID outbreaks in China, where Shanghai is tentatively reopening, but infections are rising in the Beijing area.
However, while the market is focused on gloomier economic outlooks, it has ignored—at least this past week—the critically low U.S. fuel inventories.
Not that oil demand has soared so much. It’sthe capacity for supply, globally and in the U.S, that is now a few million barrels per day lower than it was before the pandemic.
Rising demand since economies reopened and people returned to travel, combined with lower refining capacity and very tight distillate markets have drawn down U.S. product inventories to below seasonal averages and at multi-year lows, with record-low inventories reported on the East Coast.
Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 4.8 million barrels in the week ending May 13, and are about 8% below the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said in its latest weekly inventory report on May 18. Implied gasoline demand, measured as products supplied, rose, despite record-high prices across the United States.
Gasoline inventories in the U.S. are at their lowest levels for this time of the year since 2014, with stocks on the East Coast even tighter, at their lowest since 2011 for this time of the year.
“While refiners have some room to increase runs (utilization rates increased by 1.8 percentage points to 91.8% over the week), gasoline demand should increase as we move into driving season, which suggests that we will see further tightness in the US gasoline market.
In this case, we are likely to see further pressure on the US administration to try rein in gasoline prices,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao wrote on Thursday.
According to Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst, Commodities, at SEB:
”The global refining system is severely stretched following reductions in capacities in 2020/21, reviving oil product demand along with re-openings with Russia/Ukraine issues on top. We are now heading into summer driving season with much higher gasoline demand with a start-out of very low inventories.”
Concerns about economic growth, and consequently, demand for fuels, are yet to be reflected in actual data, Saxo Bank said on Thursday.
“On the ground, however, this worry has yet to be reflected with inventories of crude oil and gasoline still falling while US implied gasoline demand, despite record prices, remains robust.
“Meanwhile, in China the easing of lockdowns is not going well with fresh outbreaks slowing the pace towards normalisation. Until then, the market is likely to focus on the general level of risk appetite, which is currently challenged,” Saxo Bank’s strategy team noted.
By: Tsvetana Paraskova
Paraskova writes for Oilprice .com.
Oil & Energy
FG Woos IOCs On Energy Growth
The Federal Government has expressed optimism in attracting more investments by International Oil Companies (IOCs) into Nigeria to foster growth and sustainability in the energy sector.
This is as some IOCs, particularly Shell and TotalEnergies, had announced plans to divest some of their assets from the country.
Recall that Shell in January, 2024 had said it would sell the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited (SPDC) to Renaissance.
According to the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, increasing investments by IOCs as well as boosting crude production to enhancing Nigeria’s position as a leading player in the global energy market, are the key objectives of the Government.
Lokpobiri emphasized the Ministry’s willingness to collaborate with State Governments, particularly Bayelsa State, in advancing energy sector transformation efforts.
The Minister, who stressed the importance of cooperation in achieving shared goals said, “we are open to partnerships with Bayelsa State Government for mutual progress”.
In response to Governor Douye Diri’s appeal for Ministry intervention in restoring the Atala Oil Field belonging to Bayelsa State, the Minister assured prompt attention to the matter.
He said, “We will look into the issue promptly and ensure fairness and equity in addressing state concerns”.
Lokpobiri explained that the Bayelsa State Governor, Douyi Diri’s visit reaffirmed the commitment of both the Federal and State Government’s readiness to work together towards a sustainable, inclusive, and prosperous energy future for Nigeria.
While speaking, Governor Diri commended the Minister for his remarkable performance in revitalisng the nation’s energy sector.
Oil & Energy
Your Investment Is Safe, FG Tells Investors In Gas
The Federal Government has assured investors in the nation’s gas sector of the security and safety of their investments.
Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, gave the assurance while hosting top officials of Shanghai Huayi Energy Chemical Company Group of China (HUAYI) and China Road and Bridge Corporation, who are strategic investors in Brass Methanol and Gas Hub Project in Bayelsa State.
The Minister in a statement stressed that Nigeria was open for investments and investors, insisting that present and prospective foreign investors have no need to entertain fear on the safety of their investment.
Describing the Brass project as one critical project of the President Bola Tinubu-led administration, Ekpo said.
“The Federal Government is committed to developing Nigeria’s gas reserves through projects such as the Brass Methanol project, which presents an opportunity for the diversification of Nigeria’s economy.
“It is for this and other reasons that the project has been accorded the significant concessions (or support) that it enjoys from the government.
“Let me, therefore, assure you of the strong commitment of our government to the security and safety of yours and other investments as we have continually done for similar Chinese investments in Nigeria through the years”, he added.
Ekpo further tasked investors and contractors working on the project to double their efforts, saying, “I want to see this project running for the good of Nigeria and its investors”.
Earlier in his speech, Leader of the Chinese delegation, Mr Zheng Bi Jun, said the visit to the country was to carry out feasibility studies for investments in methanol projects.
On his part, the Managing Director of Brass Fertiliser and Petrochemical Ltd, Mr Ben Okoye, expressed optimism in partnering with genuine investors on the project.
Oil & Energy
Oil Prices Record Second Monthly Gain
Crude oil prices recently logged their second monthly gain in a row as OPEC+ extended their supply curb deal until the end of Q2 2024.
The gains have been considerable, with WTI adding about $7 per barrel over the month of February.
Yet a lot of analysts remain bearish about the commodity’s prospects. In fact, they believe that there is enough oil supply globally to keep Brent around $81 this year and WTI at some $76.50, according to a Reuters poll.
Yet, like last year in U.S. shale showed, there is always the possibility of a major surprise.
According to the respondents in that poll, what’s keeping prices tame is, first, the fact that the Red Sea crisis has not yet affected oil shipments in the region, thanks to alternative routes.
The second reason cited by the analysts is OPEC+ spare capacity, which has increased, thanks to the cuts.
“Spare capacity has reached a multi-year high, which will keep overall market sentiment under pressure over the coming months”, senior analyst, Florian Grunberger, told Reuters.
The perception of ample spare capacity is definitely one factor keeping traders and analysts bearish as they assume this capacity would be put into operation as soon as the market needs it. This may well be an incorrect assumption.
Saudi Arabia and OPEC have given multiple signs that they would only release more production if prices are to their liking, and if cuts are getting extended, then current prices are not to OPEC’s liking yet.
There is more, too. The Saudis, which are cutting the most and have the greatest spare capacity at around 3 million barrels daily right now, are acutely aware that the moment they release additional supply, prices will plunge.
Therefore, the chance of Saudi cuts being reversed anytime soon is pretty slim.
Then there is the U.S. oil production factor. Last year, analysts expected modest output additions from the shale patch because the rig count remained consistently lower than what it was during the strongest shale boom years.
That assumption proved wrong as drillers made substantial gains in well productivity that pushed total production to yet another record.
Perhaps a bit oddly, analysts are once again making a bold assumption for this year: that the productivity gains will continue at the same rate this year as well.
The Energy Information Administration disagrees. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the authority estimated that U.S. oil output had reached a record high of 13.3 million barrels daily that in January fell to 12.6 million bpd due to harsh winter weather.
For the rest of the year, however, the EIA has forecast a production level remaining around the December record, which will only be broken in February 2025.
Oil demand, meanwhile, will be growing. Wood Mackenzie recently predicted 2024 demand growth at 1.9 million barrels daily.
OPEC sees this year’s demand growth at 2.25 million barrels daily. The IEA is, as usual, the most modest in its expectations, seeing 2024 demand for oil grow by 1.2 million bpd.
With OPEC+ keeping a lid on production and U.S. production remaining largely flat on 2023, if the EIA is correct, a tightening of the supply situation is only a matter of time. Indeed, some are predicting that already.
Natural resource-focused investors Goehring and Rozencwajg recently released their latest market outlook, in which they warned that the oil market may already be in a structural deficit, to manifest later this year.
They also noted a change in the methodology that the EIA uses to estimate oil production, which may well have led to a serious overestimation of production growth.
The discrepancy between actual and reported production, Goehring and Rozencwajg said, could be so significant that the EIA may be estimating growth where there’s a production decline.
So, on the one hand, some pretty important assumptions are being made about demand, namely, that it will grow more slowly this year than it did last year.
This assumption is based on another one, by the way, and this is the assumption that EV sales will rise as strongly as they did last year, when they failed to make a dent in oil demand growth, and kill some oil demand.
On the other hand, there is the assumption that U.S. drillers will keep drilling like they did last year. What would motivate such a development is unclear, besides the expectation that Europe will take in even more U.S. crude this year than it already is.
This is a much safer assumption than the one about demand, by the way. And yet, there are indications from the U.S. oil industry that there will be no pumping at will this year. There will be more production discipline.
Predicting oil prices accurately, even over the shortest of periods, is as safe as flipping a coin. With the number of variables at play at any moment, accurate predictions are usually little more than a fluke, especially when perceptions play such an outsized role in price movements.
One thing is for sure, though. There may be surprises this year in oil.
lrina Slav
Slav writes for Oilprice.com.
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