Oil & Energy
Oil Demand Future Increasingly Clear as Trends Solidify
In June, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast peak oil demand growth in less than six years. Later that same month, the Energy Institute revealed demand is still growing and where it declines, the declines are minuscule.
While the two reports paint two rather different pictures, they also offer a glimpse into the actual future of oil demand and supply, especially viewed in the context of trends like a slowdown in U.S. oil output and China’s recent boost in local oil and gas exploration. Oil and gas are going nowhere.
“Increased use of EVs, emerging clean energy technologies and more expansive efficiency policies are combining to chart a much slower growth trajectory for oil demand, plateauing towards the end of our 2023-2030 forecast period’, the EIA wrote in its Oil 2024 long-term forecast about energy trends.
Yet, this increasingly resembles wishful thinking and idealism rather than reality. In the world as it actually is, EV adoption is experiencing a slowdown, and while this week’s second-quarter sales figures from Big Auto suggest a partial reversal, the bombastic predictions of an EV revolution remain unfulfilled, with Tesla, the world’s bestseller, posting lower than expected deliveries in the second quarter.
At the same time, however, GM reported a 40per cent increase in EV sales for the second quarter. It is doubtful if this should be cause for celebration seeing as the carmaker is actually losing money on every EV it sells but GM is putting a positive spin on it at a time when survey after survey suggests the appeal of EVs is waning among drivers.
The latest comes from McKinsey and reveals that close to half of American EV drivers would be willing to switch back to internal combustion engine vehicles. Globally, in the 15 countries where McKinsey conducted the survey, the percentage was lower, at 29%, but still significant when we are talking about a revolution and displacement of internal combustion technology.
EVs have certainly had an impact on oil demand in China. In other parts of the world, namely Europe and North America, the growth in EV sales has had a negligible impact on oil demand, which, per the Energy Institute, fell by 1per cent in Europe and 0.8per cent in North America. At the same time, it rose by 5per cent in Asia, which includes the world’s biggest EV market, China.
In fairness, this growth in oil demand is slowing down, at least in China. Imports of crude oil have trended lower than expected since the start of the year and while it could be argued that expectations may have been unrealistic, the decline is affecting the outlook on demand. Then there are the forecasts, including from Chinese energy majors, that demand growth in the world’s top importer is about to peak.
Sinopec, the state energy giant and the world’s biggest refiner, reported in May that it expected demand growth in the country to peak in three years. The company cited growth in EV sales as the reason for its forecast and also said that, by 2045, the country’s energy mix would be dominated by non-hydrocarbon sources.
Whether the latter prediction will come true remains to be seen, as Beijing this week announced the setting up of a new state-controlled entity to develop local oil and gas resources, including unconventional reservoirs.
The entity comprises CNPC and Sinopec, along with companies from the steel, equipment, and infrastructure industries. In other words, China is building an integrated oil and gas resource developer.
This does not go against the expectations of peak demand growth, but it does suggest an extended plateau in demand after the peak is reached.
It is not only China that needs to be paid attention when it comes to oil demand prospects. The minor demand declines in Europe and North America are more proof that the destruction of demand for oil that the energy transition was expected to bring about is not happening.
Even in Norway, the biggest per-capita EV adopter nation, demand for oil has not, in fact, declined as the number of EVs on the roads rose.
Neither has the EU’s thirst for natural gas declined as it builds ever more wind and solar. The latest update revealed that Europe imported 23per cent more gas from Russia in June than a year ago, despite the sanction push against every type of Russian hydrocarbon. In the previous month, Russian gas imports even exceeded imports from the United States.
A lot of forecasts predict an end to the world’s appetite for hydrocarbons. Yet the reality is that oil and gas and coal, too are here to stay for a long time, even if demand starts growing more slowly or even stops growing at some point, in post-industrial societies.
The problem of these post-industrial societies is that they need the output of industrialised ones and industrialisation is inevitably tied to the cheap, round-the-clock energy provided by hydrocarbons. Oil demand doom is nowhere near looming.
Slav writes for Oilprice.com.
By: Irina Slav
Oil & Energy
The Tofu Brine Battery That Could End the Lithium Era
Researchers in Hong Kong and China have developed a new form of battery that is more eco-friendly and longer lasting than lithium ion batteries – and it runs on tofu brine. The new water battery is still in research phases, but if the technology proves to be scalable enough to hit commercial markets, it could be a game-changer for the energy and tech sectors.
“Compared with current aqueous battery systems … our system delivers exceptional long-term cycling stability and environmental friendliness under neutral conditions,” the research team, composed of scientists from the City University of Hong Kong and Southern University of Science and Technology in Shenzhen, Guangdong, said in a paper published this month in Nature Communications.
The researchers found that their battery model can be recharged over 120,000 times. “At over a hundred thousand cycles, this could mean a single water-based battery could last at least a decade or so,” states a recent report on the breakthrough from Interesting Engineering. “For applications like grid storage (solar farms, wind balancing), that’s extremely valuable,” the article went on to say.
This kind of lifespan would represent a drastic improvement over the battery technologies that dominate today’s market. Lithium-ion batteries degrade after between 1,000 and 3,000 charge cycles. This could prove revolutionary, as finding an alternative to lithium-ion batteries to power rechargeable devices is a major priority for Big Tech and the global energy sector.
Moreover, these tofu-brine batteries could prove safer and more environmentally friendly than lithium-ion batteries. According to the study authors, the full cells are environmentally benign and nontoxic and can be directly discarded to environments according to various standards.” Water based (also called aqueous) batteries can also potentially be cheap to produce as they rely on ingredients that are less rare in addition to being less hazardous.
Lithium is environmentally harmful to extract, prone to fires, and its supply chains are geopolitically fraught. Currently, China alone controls half of the global lithium market, and is rapidly increasing its stake. In 2024, more than eight in ten battery cells on the planet were made in China. This means that finding a battery model that can compete with lithium-ion batteries in applications like grid-scale energy storage and electric vehicles would have revolutionary implications for global markets.
Researchers around the world have been racing to develop battery models that could diversify the market and make it more competitive and resilient. These models range widely in size, components, and application, with models currently under development for next-gen sodium-ion batteries, quantum batteries, nuclear batteries, and even sand and dirt batteries.
Of course, the irony is that the leading alternatives to lithium-ion batteries are also being developed in Chinese labs. If this new tofu-brine battery proves scalable and applicable outside of a laboratory environment, it could just be another step toward Beijing’s goal of near-total domination of clean energy technology value chains and status as the world’s first and premiere ‘electro-state.’
China’s extreme advantage in global battery making gives it a major point of leverage in global economies as the world continues to electrify at a rapid pace. It is estimated that European demand for lithium in batteries will reach kilo tonnes (thousands of tonnes) of Lithium Carbonate Equivalent by next year, and North American demand will reach 250 kit LCE. it’s all but certain that the vast majority of that demand will be supplied by China.
Other nations are aware of the risk of this dependency, and are taking pains to protect and promote domestic battery manufacturing, but these efforts may be too little, too late. “For globally competitive battery manufacturing industries to emerge outside of Asia over the next ten years, companies will need to do far more than ensure regulatory compliance,” summarizes a McKinsey & Company report released in January. “Challenges will need to be overcome on multiple fronts spanning supply chains, talent management, operations and technology.”
By: Haley Zaremba
Oil & Energy
REA TO Spend N100bn On Hybrid Mini-grids For Govt Agencies In 2026
The Rural Electrification Agency (REA) says it will spend N100 billion in 2026 to deploy hybrid mini-grids for government agencies within and outside Abuja.
The Managing Directors, REA, Abba Aliyu, disclosed this while addressing newsmen on the sidelines of the 2026 budget defence session
The approved funds form part of the National Public Sector Solarisation programme, a component of the agency’s broader N170 billion budget proposal for 2026.
The initiative is designed to improve electricity reliability for public institutions while reducing operational costs and easing pressure on the national grid.
Aliyu explained that the agency’s total proposed budget for 2026 stands at N170 billion, with N100 billion of the amount dedicated specifically to the solarisation initiative targeting government agencies.
He said the hybrid mini-grid systems combine solar power with complementary energy sources to ensure an uninterrupted electricity supply.
“The total budget size for 2026 operations is N170 billion, out of which N100 billion had been approved for National Public Sector Solarisation.
Aliyu cited the National Hospital in Abuja as an example where similar infrastructure had been deployed to ensure stable power and cut operational expenses.He added that beyond the Solarisation
Recall that earlier in February 2026, REA signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to deploy solar power systems to 15 public institutions across Nigeria.
The project will be implemented under the Regional Off-Grid Electricity Access Project (ROGEAP), a World Bank-supported initiative aimed at expanding off-grid electricity access across West Africa and the Sahel.
ECOWAS will provide a $700,000 grant to fund the installation of solar photovoltaic systems in selected rural health centres and schools in the Federal Capital Territory, Niger, and Nasarawa States.
Oil & Energy
PIA: TotalEnergies Transfers OLO Oilfield HCDT Obligation To Aradel ……Says HCDT Enabled Completion of 100 Projects In 2 years
In his remarks, the Community Affairs Manager, Aradel Holdings Plc, Blessyn Okpowo, affirmed the company’s commitment to honouring all PIA obligations and continuing Total Energies’ community engagement approach.“We want to say that in line with the PIA, we will honour commitments and duties required of the settlor and we want to work very smoothly with the way TotalEnergies has worked with them,” he stated.
He recognised the Commission’s role in approving the Community Development Plan (CDP) before project start, underscoring regulatory excellence.The parties noted that between 2023 and 2025, the trust has enabled the completion of more than 100 community projects, spanning water supply, electricity, road infrastructure, education, and healthcare with a further 40 projects currently ongoing.
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