Business

UK Economy Faces Recession Soon – Report

Published

13 years ago

February 6, 2012

The United Kingdom economy will enter recession in the first half of the year as households continue to cut back, an influential think tank has warned.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said the government should temporarily ease its spending cuts to promote growth, according to a British Broadcasting Corporation report on Friday.

It expects the economy to shrink 0.1 per cent in 2012, but to grow 2.3 per cent in 2013 if the eurozone debt crisis is resolved.

Niesr said, however, that deficit cuts had bolstered market confidence.

The UK is already close to another recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction – after official figures in January showed that the economy shrank by 0.2 per cent in the final three months of 2011.

In its UK and World Economy Forecast, NIESR said, “We forecast a return to technical recession in the first half of this year, as households continue to retrench, credit conditions remain tight, and businesses are reluctant to invest given uncertainty about both domestic and foreign demand.”

Niesr said economic conditions will not improve in the short term, as both the private the public sectors are still focused on paying off debts. “Over the near term we do not expect economic conditions to improve,” the report said.

The think tank predicted that inflation would fall sharply, with the consumer price index down to 2.2 per cent this year and 1.4 per cent in 2013.

But there were grim forecasts on unemployment, which NIESR expects will rise to about nine per cent this year, from 8.4 per cent in the three months to November, and will remain above seven per cent in 2014.

“Unemployment at this elevated level for such a long period is likely to do permanent damage to the supply side of the economy, with large long-run economic costs,” the report said.

“As Niesr have said, the government’s commitment to deficit reduction has helped maintain market confidence,” said Treasury spokesman

Niesr suggests relaxing the government’s austerity programme. “The UK economy currently suffers from deficient demand; the current stance of fiscal policy is contributing to this deficiency. A temporary easing of fiscal policy in the near term would boost the economy,” the group said.

More investment would not derail the chancellor’s long term fiscal goals, Niesr said.

On Monday, the Institute of Fiscal Studies said the government could safely cut taxes temporarily, without worrying that the Bank of England would raise rates in response.

But the IFS that there was little scope for big or long-term tax cuts, which risked undermining investor confidence.

The chancellor faces his third budget with the economy and public finances in considerably weaker shape than he had hoped a year ago,” said Paul Johnson, director of the IFS.

Last month, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said he would continue with the coalition government’s efforts to reduce the deficit, despite criticism that it is choking off recovery.

A Treasury spokesman said, “As NIESR have said, the government’s commitment to deficit reduction has helped maintain market confidence.

“They expect the government to meet its fiscal mandate and for the UK economy to grow more strongly than the euro area this year and next.”

Meanwhile, NIESR forecast global growth of 3.5 per cent for 2012, led by China and India, and four per cent in 2013. It forecast US economic growth of two per cent this year. An independent Scotland could be more constrained on economic policy than at present, a study has suggested.

The report also considered the monetary and fiscal policy choices facing Scotland if it leaves the union.

Niesr concluded that retaining sterling would be “sensible” for Scotland, but warned that currency union could restrict fiscal policy.

Business

USTR Criticises Nigeria’s Import Ban On Agriculture, Others

Published

3 days ago

April 25, 2025

The Tide

The United States Trade Representative (USTR) has criticised Nigeria’s import ban on 25 categories of goods, claiming that the restrictions limit market access for American exporters.
This is the effect of President Donald Trump’s tariffs introduction on goods entering the United States, with Nigeria facing a 14 per cent duty.
The USTR highlighted the impact of Nigeria’s import ban on various sectors, particularly agriculture, pharmaceuticals, beverages, and consumer goods.
The restrictions affect items such as beef, pork, poultry, fruit juices, medicaments, and alcoholic beverages, which the United States sees as significant barriers to trade.
The agency argues that these limitations reduce export opportunities for United States businesses and lead to lost revenue.
“Nigeria’s import ban on 25 different product categories impacts United States exporters, particularly in agriculture, pharmaceuticals, beverages, and consumer goods.
“Restrictions on items like beef, pork, poultry, fruit juices, medicaments, and spirits limit United States market access and reduce export opportunities.
“These policies create significant trade barriers that lead to lost revenue for United States businesses looking to expand in the Nigerian market”, the agency said .
In 2016, Nigeria implemented the ban on these 25 items as part of efforts to control imports and stimulate local production.
Some of the banned items include poultry, pork, refined vegetable oil, sugar, cocoa products, spaghetti, beer, and certain medicines.
On March 26, 2025, the Federal Government also announced plans to halt solar panel imports to encourage local manufacturing as part of its push for clean energy.

Business

Expert Seeks Cooperative-Driven Investments In Agriculture

Published

3 days ago

April 25, 2025

The Tide

A leading agribusiness strategist and digital agriculture expert, Ayo Oluwa Okediji, has sought cooperative-driven investments in sustaining growth of poultry industry in Nigeria.
He said the poultry industry was at a defining moment and requires urgent structural reforms to secure its future and ensure long-term sustainability.
Speaking on the theme, “Strengthening Poultry Farming Through Cooperative Synergy and Strategic Investments”, at the recently concluded Oyo Mega Poultry Workshop 2025 in Ibadan, Okediji called on poultry farmers, cooperative leaders, financial institutions and policy makers to rethink the existing structure of the poultry sector.
He stressed the need to transition from fragmented, individually-driven operations to well-structured, cooperative-led enterprises capable of attracting sustainable financing and securing long-term viability.
He said, “Our poultry sector cannot thrive on individual effort alone. We need to organise ourselves into cooperative clusters, build strong governance systems and position ourselves to attract the level of investment needed to sustain this industry beyond this generation.”
Drawing on lessons from successful global cooperative models such as Rabobank in the Netherlands and Landus Cooperative in the United States, Okediji introduced the FarmClusters Poultry Model, a locally adapted solution developed by Agribusiness Dynamics Technology Limited (AgDyna), a subsidiary of AgroInfoTech Africa.
According to him, the model is currently being piloted in Oyo State in partnership with PANOY Agribusiness Limited and local poultry cooperatives.

Business

NACCIMA Proposes Hybrid Oil Palm Seedlings For Farmers

Published

3 days ago

April 25, 2025

The Tide

The Rivers State Representative of the Nigeria Chambers of Commerce, Mines, Industries and Agriculture (NACCIMA), Mr. Erasmus Chukwundah, has urged palm oil farmers to consider hybrid seedlings for planting, if they must break even in palm oil business.
Chukwundah said this recently at the Free Oil Palm Business Climate Smart Best Management Practice/Assistance Training organized by Partnership Initiative In Niger Delta (PIND) for Palm Oil Farmers in Elele, Ikwerre Local Government Area.
The Rivers representative said until palm oil farmers begin to consider such hybrid oil palm seedlings, they may not meet up with the daily increasing demand of palm oil in the market.
According to him, the seedlings produce up to 30 bunches at once that ripen same time.
He said PIND decided to partner with Oil Palm Growers Association of Nigeria (OPGAN) to ensure that the message was received by the targeted audience.
According to him, palm oil remained a popular choice of industry operators as it could be converted to many other products such as vegetable cooking oil.
He also noted that products such as motor tyers, marine ropes and others are now gotten from the palm tree.
Chukwundah, who is the immediate past Director-General of Port Harcourt Chamber of Commerce, Mines, Industries, and Agriculture (PHCCIMA), further warned against use of unrecommended fertilisers in growing oil palms.
He noted that such practices could limit its export value or chances as the foreign marketers have a way of detecting such .
He reiterated the need for organic fertilizers, including poultry droppings, to enable them have a natural palm oil.
“People must reduce physical contact with palm oil production. That is why we are campaigning for hydrolic oil mills. The foreign markets are no longer interested in crude method of palm oil production”, he said.
Meanwhile, one of the farmers, Sonny Didia, who appreciated Chukwundah’s commitment towards the concern of farmers, appealed for an urgent need for loan opportunity with low interest rate in order to enable them beat the target.

King Onunwor