Editorial
Taming Rising Inflation In Nigeria
As the rise in inflation rate further darkens the ominous clouds gathering over Nigeria, raising the fearsome spectre of economic ruin, the World Bank has said the Federal Government did not take any collaborative action towards inhibiting inflation in 2021 regardless of inflation shock pushing an estimated eight million Nigerians below the poverty line.
That was in the latest issue of the Washington-based bank’s 2021 report, ‘Nigeria Development Update’. It said, “Double-digit inflation rates are depressing economic activity and exacerbating poverty. Rising food prices are eroding household purchasing power, and we estimate that during 2020 and 2021, the ‘inflation shock’ alone pushed about eight million more Nigerians below the poverty line.
“We have revised our inflation forecast upwards from our June projection because (i) the inflation rate is declining more slowly than initially expected, and (ii) during 2021, the government did not take concerted action to curb inflation.” The World Bank further warned that without any definitive action, the average inflation rate would not reach the single-digit target of the CBN by the end of 2022.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had recently envisaged that the country’s inflation rate would drop to a single digit in 2022, with the full implementation of its recent policies designed to advance different sectors of the economy. However, a US-based magazine, Global Finance, agreed with the World Bank that the CBN had failed to rein in inflation and prevent the Naira from slipping against the dollar.
According to a World Bank prognosis, Nigeria could have one of the highest inflation rates in the world in 2022, with rising prices driving down the well-being of Nigerian households. The report also indicates that the country is similarly expected to have the seventh highest inflation rate among countries in sub-Saharan Africa this year.
There is a widespread rise in consumer goods prices as the economy has been marked by the COVID-19 recession, insecurity, the foreign exchange market crisis, unemployment and income shortfall. The sudden decline in the value of the currency has led to re-priced imported goods and raw materials. As prices are rising rapidly, the feasibility of hyperinflation and its collateral fallout is substantial.
Recall that the World Bank had warned in June 2020 that the crash in oil prices coupled with the COVID-19 pandemic would hurtle the Nigerian economy into an austere economic recession, the worst since the 1980s. The abandonment of the national rescue effort solely to the inept administration of President Muhammadu Buhari has proved a disaster.
Though key fiscal and monetary policymaking lies primarily with the Federal Government, states need to make profound changes in their spending and revenue generation template and run independent, self-sustaining economic units. They must expand the frontiers of their economies and develop viable economic programmes for job creation.
Nigeria’s annual inflation rate was 15.60 per cent in January, 2022, little changed from 15.63 per cent in the previous month. There was a slight deceleration in prices of major food components (17.13 vs 17.37 per cent in December). Meanwhile, inflation was higher for almost all other categories, primarily clothing and footwear (15.4 vs 15.1 per cent); transport (15.1 vs 15 per cent); furnishings (14.6 vs 14.5 per cent); miscellaneous goods and services (14.4 vs 14.1 per cent) and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (14.1 vs 13.7 per cent).
The annual basic inflation rate, which excludes farm product prices, remained unchanged at 13.87 per cent in January, the highest rate since April, 2017. Each month, consumer prices rose by 1.47 per cent, following a 1.82 per cent increase in the previous month. This is reflected in the report of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
But the cold figures reflect somewhat the misery of ordinary Nigerians or the ferocious headwinds faced by businesses. Nigeria is on the cutting edge of terrorism and cattle politics. The Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Godwin Emefiele, has rightly ascribed the inflationary pressure to the worsening security situation in many parts of the country, particularly the food-producing areas where farmers face continual incursions by herdsmen and bandits in their farms. It has made food inflation worse.
The Edo State Governor, Godwin Obaseki, blew the lid open on the Federal Government/CBN template of printing money for sharing among the tiers of government to make up for revenue shortfalls. Emefiele’s argument that it was a normal government loan was not reassuring. Economists believe that unrestrained, printing money consistently faster than the growth of real output could result in hyperinflation, exorcising fearful images of Germany’s experience in the 1920s and Zimbabwe’s more recently.
To save the day, the CBN should review its inflationary tradition of converting dollar revenues into Naira for sharing by the federal, states and 774 local governments as long canvassed by the late economist, Henry Boyo. It should be essential to reshape the business climate to curb currency accumulation and capital flight and to attract foreign direct investment.
Insecurity must be contained; the national siege by murderous herders, bandits, terrorists and kidnappers must be stopped to allow agriculture, mining, transport and trade to fully resume. The government should open the economy to investors by privatisation free of corruption. That way, we can have a more productive economy.
The delay in implementing President Bola Tinubu’s directive for zero customs duty and value added tax on food imports is unacceptable and highlights a concerning lack of urgency within the Federal Ministry of Finance and the Nigerian Customs Service. Over two months after the announcement, the policy remains stalled, despite the President’s clear intention for immediate enforcement. This prolonged delay, especially given the policy’s temporary nature (July – December), is inexplicable and detrimental to a hoi polloi already grappling with a severe economic crisis.
While the Comptroller-General of Customs attributes the delay to the Ministry of Finance finalising details, this explanation is insufficient. The dire need for food relief demands swift action, especially in the face of soaring fuel prices, rampant inflation, and skyrocketing food costs. The President’s promise of subsidised rice at N40,000 per 50kg bag remains elusive as well, pushing many Nigerians further into hardship. Accusations of deliberate slowdowns motivated by the government’s revenue goals are alarming and warrant serious investigation.
A circular from the Presidency has clarified the approved food items eligible for duty exemption, specifically maize, millet, rice, wheat, husked brown rice, grain sorghum, and beans. This strategic move aims to alleviate the financial burden on consumers and enhance food security. Previously subjected to import duties between five and 30 per cent, these commodities will now be more accessible, potentially stabilising prices in the local market.
It seems the execution of the policy is encountering obstacles due to bureaucratic processes. If the government fails to address this crisis with comprehensive and effective measures, the consequences could be catastrophic. The simmering discontent amongst Nigerians could easily boil over into widespread protests and social unrest, further destabilising an already fragile nation. Ignoring the cries of its citizens and the looming threat of social upheaval would be a grave mistake with potentially devastating ramifications.
Public officials insulated by privilege and detached from the everyday struggles of the people, have fostered a dangerous disconnect. For too long, they have failed to truly understand the harsh realities faced by the majority of Nigerians, the daily grind of poverty, the constant battle for survival, and the crushing weight of economic hardship. However, the current multifaceted crisis, with its clear manifestation of suffering, should serve as a jarring wake-up call, even to the most arrogant and out-of-touch.
The government’s ill-conceived and draconian policies, implemented without adequate consideration for the people, have created an intolerable situation that can no longer be swept under the rug or dismissed with platitudes. The widespread suffering is a stark indictment of their negligence, demanding a fundamental shift in perspective and a renewed commitment to the welfare of the Nigerian people.
The recent #EndBadGovernance protests serve as an obvious reminder that disregarding the plight of the people is a dangerous gamble. When basic needs like food and security are unmet, and the cries for change are silenced, the simmering discontent inevitably boils over. Escalating hunger and desperation create a fertile ground for unrest, a truth tragically illustrated by the protests. If the government continues to turn a blind eye to the suffering of its citizens, more widespread and possibly violent demonstrations are not only likely, but inevitable.
Furthermore, attempting to quell dissent through intimidation and persecution of protesters is a recipe for disaster, as it only serves to further inflame tensions and breed resentment. The path to stability lies not in suppression, but in genuine engagement with the concerns of the people and a commitment to addressing the root causes of their suffering.
The Federal Ministry of Finance, led by Olawale Edun, has a crucial role to play in improving the image of this government. Minister Edun and Customs Comptroller-General, Wale Adeniyi, must prioritise the fight against hunger by expediting the zero duty policy. This policy will allow the importation of food at a reduced cost and ease the burden on struggling families.
Officials must accord precedence to the well-being of citizens over bureaucratic processes. The current economic hardship is undeniable, and the callous indifference displayed by those in power, who seem shielded from the harsh realities ordinary Nigerians face, is deeply troubling. The government must act decisively to expedite this critical policy and provide the much-needed relief to a population struggling with hunger, poverty, and misery. Continued delay is a betrayal of Tinubu’s promise and a grim reminder of the disconnect between those in power and the suffering Nigerians.
The delay in implementing President Bola Tinubu’s directive for zero customs duty and value added tax on food imports is unacceptable and highlights a concerning lack of urgency within the Federal Ministry of Finance and the Nigerian Customs Service. Over two months after the announcement, the policy remains stalled, despite the President’s clear intention for immediate enforcement. This prolonged delay, especially given the policy’s temporary nature (July – December), is inexplicable and detrimental to a hoi polloi already grappling with a severe economic crisis.
While the Comptroller-General of Customs attributes the delay to the Ministry of Finance finalising details, this explanation is insufficient. The dire need for food relief demands swift action, especially in the face of soaring fuel prices, rampant inflation, and skyrocketing food costs. The President’s promise of subsidised rice at N40,000 per 50kg bag remains elusive as well, pushing many Nigerians further into hardship. Accusations of deliberate slowdowns motivated by the government’s revenue goals are alarming and warrant serious investigation.
A circular from the Presidency has clarified the approved food items eligible for duty exemption, specifically maize, millet, rice, wheat, husked brown rice, grain sorghum, and beans. This strategic move aims to alleviate the financial burden on consumers and enhance food security. Previously subjected to import duties between five and 30 per cent, these commodities will now be more accessible, potentially stabilising prices in the local market.
It seems the execution of the policy is encountering obstacles due to bureaucratic processes. If the government fails to address this crisis with comprehensive and effective measures, the consequences could be catastrophic. The simmering discontent amongst Nigerians could easily boil over into widespread protests and social unrest, further destabilising an already fragile nation. Ignoring the cries of its citizens and the looming threat of social upheaval would be a grave mistake with potentially devastating ramifications.
Public officials insulated by privilege and detached from the everyday struggles of the people, have fostered a dangerous disconnect. For too long, they have failed to truly understand the harsh realities faced by the majority of Nigerians, the daily grind of poverty, the constant battle for survival, and the crushing weight of economic hardship. However, the current multifaceted crisis, with its clear manifestation of suffering, should serve as a jarring wake-up call, even to the most arrogant and out-of-touch.
The government’s ill-conceived and draconian policies, implemented without adequate consideration for the people, have created an intolerable situation that can no longer be swept under the rug or dismissed with platitudes. The widespread suffering is a stark indictment of their negligence, demanding a fundamental shift in perspective and a renewed commitment to the welfare of the Nigerian people.
The recent #EndBadGovernance protests serve as an obvious reminder that disregarding the plight of the people is a dangerous gamble. When basic needs like food and security are unmet, and the cries for change are silenced, the simmering discontent inevitably boils over. Escalating hunger and desperation create a fertile ground for unrest, a truth tragically illustrated by the protests. If the government continues to turn a blind eye to the suffering of its citizens, more widespread and possibly violent demonstrations are not only likely, but inevitable.
Furthermore, attempting to quell dissent through intimidation and persecution of protesters is a recipe for disaster, as it only serves to further inflame tensions and breed resentment. The path to stability lies not in suppression, but in genuine engagement with the concerns of the people and a commitment to addressing the root causes of their suffering.
The Federal Ministry of Finance, led by Olawale Edun, has a crucial role to play in improving the image of this government. Minister Edun and Customs Comptroller-General, Wale Adeniyi, must prioritise the fight against hunger by expediting the zero duty policy. This policy will allow the importation of food at a reduced cost and ease the burden on struggling families.
Officials must accord precedence to the well-being of citizens over bureaucratic processes. The current economic hardship is undeniable, and the callous indifference displayed by those in power, who seem shielded from the harsh realities ordinary Nigerians face, is deeply troubling. The government must act decisively to expedite this critical policy and provide the much-needed relief to a population struggling with hunger, poverty, and misery. Continued delay is a betrayal of Tinubu’s promise and a grim reminder of the disconnect between those in power and the suffering Nigerians.
All looks set for the conduct of the Rivers State local government election scheduled to take place tomorrow in the 23 local government areas of the state. A total of 18 political parties will vie for various council positions in the polls to be conducted on Saturday. The Rivers State Independent Electoral Commission (RSIEC) had initially listed 19 political parties for the election, but the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) discontinued the contest. Chief Emeka Beke’s faction of the All Progressives Congress (APC) has said that it will participate in the ballot.
Ahead of tomorrow’s council election, various lawsuits have resulted in conflicting rulings about how the election should be conducted. A recent judgment by a Federal High Court in Abuja has prohibited the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) from providing the voters register to RSIEC and instructed the police to withdraw security for the ballot. Similarly, the court has barred RSIEC from getting the voters register from INEC. However, in a counter ruling, a High Court in Port Harcourt has mandated that the state electoral commission continues with the election, requiring INEC to hand over the voters register and ordering police protection for the event.
As voters in the state prepare to head to the polls tomorrow, the conflicting rulings and legal battles have cast a shadow of uncertainty over the election process. With INEC and RSIEC at odds over claims regarding the issuance of the voters register by the former and security arrangements for the ballot, there is a need for clarity and resolution to ensure a free and fair election. The conflicting court rulings have added further complications to an already challenging situation, raising concerns about the integrity of the electoral process. As all stakeholders navigate these legal challenges, the focus remains on upholding the democratic principles and ensuring that voters are able to cast their ballots without interference.
Intense preparations have characterised Saturday’s polls. The election is expected to be conducted in line with the provisions of the Rivers State electoral laws. Speaking at a meeting with stakeholders, the RSIEC chairman, Justice Adolphus Enebeli (Rtd), hinted that the commission had complied with relevant sections of the law in all its preparations for the task. He implored political parties and politicians to ignore acts that could jeopardise the electoral process.
While we wholeheartedly endorse the move to ensure that democratic practice, norms and values always prevail at the local government level, we are truly elated by the level of earnestness and commitment exhibited so far by the Justice Enebeli-led commission to conduct credible, free and fair election in the 23 local government councils. Indeed, RSIEC can execute credible elections if it resists pressures from different quarters.
Despite the Federal High Court order, the state electoral commission’s parley with security agencies, especially with the police, and other stakeholders is, to say the least, heart-warming and reassuring. We expect this cooperation and partnership to continue even after the election. Going by Enebeli’s antecedents, we strongly believe that the commission will not fail to provide a level playing ground for political parties and politicians to test their popularity in a free, fair and tension-free contest.
The state electoral body must, therefore, strive to adopt an open-door policy where complaints would be entertained on their merit during and after the election. As anticipated, we hope the commission embarked on massive voter education and training of electoral and ad hoc staff that would man the 23 local government areas. It is advised that adequate preparations should be made for the security of sensitive and non-sensitive electoral materials, particularly given the tensed atmosphere in the state.
RSIEC is reminded that the success or otherwise of any election depends largely on the authenticity of the updated voter’s register which the commission has reportedly obtained ahead of the election from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The news that as many as 18 political parties in the state will participate in the council polls is cheering. The parties are urged to support and cooperate with the commission in ensuring a smooth and credible election.
It is expedient that Governor Siminalayi Fubara releases all the funds appropriated for the conduct of the local government election to the commission and ensure that he does not interfere in the workings of the RSIEC, or even influence the outcome one way or the other. Members of the commission should work harder to uphold the law without fear or favour; let or hindrance.
Incidents of missing ballot or result sheets, late arrival of materials and other logistics will only serve to discourage the electorate who already entertain a deep mistrust for the electoral process in the country. The lack of confidence in the system is largely responsible for the attitude of most Nigerians refraining from playing an active role of either voting for candidates of their choice or vying for political office. RSIEC must guard against those lapses.
Politicians, on their part, must understand that irrespective of their party affiliations, the common goal is the provision of good governance for the people. An election should never be a ‘‘do or die affair’’ and no aspirant is worth spilling blood for. Political positions are a call to service, not personal enterprises motivated by profits or bloody sports for which violent and fatal competitions are means. Experience has shown that arms provided for political thugs during elections, end up being tools for robberies and kidnappings after the election.
The idea of security agents acting the script of political actors should no longer amount to something in our polity. The nation currently faces perhaps its worst security challenges, and the police as well as other security agencies need the trust of Rivers people to enable them to carry out their duties effectively throughout the polls.
Law enforcement agents must protect both voters and election materials because it is their constitutional role to do so. The recent #Endbadgovernance protest, along with the violence that ensued, is a manifestation of the dissatisfaction of Nigerians with police operations. These security agencies must learn to commit themselves to their constitutional obligation and oath in the sustenance of democracy, rather than to any government official.
We must realise that ultimate power rests with the people, and the best way to exercise this power is through the electoral process. Hence, Rivers people must own the electoral operation, first by acquiring their permanent voters’ card, turn out en masse tomorrow to vote for candidates of their choice, and guarantee that their votes count. They have to elect responsible and responsive persons whose utmost interest will be the security and welfare of the people.