Oil & Energy
Don’t Count On OPEC To Bring Oil Prices Down
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent an already bullish oil market into overdrive, with both WTI and Brent breaking the $100 mark on Thursday morning.
OPEC claims to have spare capacity but is refusing to increase production growth at the moment as they believe the situation is “complicated and volatile.”
This statement supports statements from OPEC members earlier in the week who emphasized that they are focused on the long-term health of oil markets.
The crisis in Ukraine has dominated the media space for weeks now, with a special focus on potential energy supply disruptions should the invasion scenario the U.S. and Western Europe have been talking about since October materialize.
As it became clear early on Thursday morning, the fears that Russia could attack Ukraine were not unfounded.
Vladimir Putin’s order to deploy troops in the two eastern breakaway regions of Lugansk and Donetsk had already pushed Brent and West Texas Intermediate higher. On Thursday morning after reports of Russia’s attack, all benchmarks rose again, with Brent reaching more than $104 per barrel and WTI briefly breaking $100.
Now, more than ever, there are concerns about oil and gas supply from one of the world’s top producers.
Some have compared the situation with the 1973 Yom Kippur war between Israel and a coalition of Arab states. The war led to the Arab oil embargo for the Western world, which led to a sharp and shockingly high rise in prices compared to which this week’s $104 for Brentcouldn’t even compare.
In 1973, oil prices practically quadrupled over a few months. This week, they continued on an already established path— a path that, until today, had little to do with Russia.
A Reuters columnist, George Hay, wrote in a column earlier this week that demand for oil was so strong that prices would have to go further still to start affecting demand in any significant way.
Just how high prices would need to go we have yet to see. But he also wrote that this was unlikely to happen because OPEC+ would step in to help.
But an OPEC+ rescue is now looking less likely.
“The oil market is artificially tight. OPEC+ is pumping around 3 million barrels a day less than it could, and most of that spare capacity is held by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates,” Hay wrote.
“Both would probably respond to any plea by U.S. President Joe Biden to increase supply to ward off destabilising price spikes”, he said.
It was an interesting supposition in light of what OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia and with the UAE its staunch ally, has been doing over the past year. There have been numerous calls from President Biden for OPEC to open the taps.
These calls were followed by demands and threats to open the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve if OPEC refused to play ball. OPEC refused to play ball. Biden opened the SPR. Prices did not fall consistently. Why should it be any different now?
The latest signs from OPEC are not exactly encouraging.
Officials in several OPEC producers said on Thursday that there was no immediate need to produce more—even though Brent has surpassed the $100 mark, calling the situation “complicated and volatile.”
Both the energy minister of Saudi Arabia and his counterpart from the United Arab Emirates spoke recently to the media, signaling they had no intention to change anything about the OPEC+ pact and the schedule of adding 400,000 bpd to the monthly total production.
“Caution, a word that I know some people hate me for, but… I will continue being cautious and (mindful of) the need to retain flexibility in our strategy and adopt a long-term perspective,” Saudi Arabia’s Prince Abdulaziz bin Salmansaid earlier this week.
“I think our plan has been working, and I don’t believe that the market is hugely under-supplied currently. It’s the other factors that are outside our hands which are impacting the market,” his Emirati colleague Suhail al Mazrouei said.
Two other OPEC members also made recent comments on oil supply and the chances of additional production boosts, and these comments were along the same lines.
“The market will have more and more oil,” Iraqi oil minister Ihsan Abdul Jabbar Ismail toldBloomberg also this week. “We will not create any growth to the commercial storage. We will secure all the demand by making the required supply.
“We won’t do anything extraordinary at this time because we are expecting a lot of production” from non-OPEC producers, Nigeria’s oil minister, Timipre Silva said. There is “no need at all to bring on more barrels than the current plan.”
Whatever happens in Ukraine, it does not seem to be sitting on the top of OPEC ministers’ minds. To them, the global oil market is not in a deficit, and they are doing fine with output additions. This stance is in contrast with the stance of consuming countries—and the International Energy Agency—which makes for truly interesting times in the oil world.
By: Irina Slav
Slav reports for Oilprice.com
The Federal Government has expressed optimism in attracting more investments by International Oil Companies (IOCs) into Nigeria to foster growth and sustainability in the energy sector.
This is as some IOCs, particularly Shell and TotalEnergies, had announced plans to divest some of their assets from the country.
Recall that Shell in January, 2024 had said it would sell the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited (SPDC) to Renaissance.
According to the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, increasing investments by IOCs as well as boosting crude production to enhancing Nigeria’s position as a leading player in the global energy market, are the key objectives of the Government.
Lokpobiri emphasized the Ministry’s willingness to collaborate with State Governments, particularly Bayelsa State, in advancing energy sector transformation efforts.
The Minister, who stressed the importance of cooperation in achieving shared goals said, “we are open to partnerships with Bayelsa State Government for mutual progress”.
In response to Governor Douye Diri’s appeal for Ministry intervention in restoring the Atala Oil Field belonging to Bayelsa State, the Minister assured prompt attention to the matter.
He said, “We will look into the issue promptly and ensure fairness and equity in addressing state concerns”.
Lokpobiri explained that the Bayelsa State Governor, Douyi Diri’s visit reaffirmed the commitment of both the Federal and State Government’s readiness to work together towards a sustainable, inclusive, and prosperous energy future for Nigeria.
While speaking, Governor Diri commended the Minister for his remarkable performance in revitalisng the nation’s energy sector.
The Federal Government has assured investors in the nation’s gas sector of the security and safety of their investments.
Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, gave the assurance while hosting top officials of Shanghai Huayi Energy Chemical Company Group of China (HUAYI) and China Road and Bridge Corporation, who are strategic investors in Brass Methanol and Gas Hub Project in Bayelsa State.
The Minister in a statement stressed that Nigeria was open for investments and investors, insisting that present and prospective foreign investors have no need to entertain fear on the safety of their investment.
Describing the Brass project as one critical project of the President Bola Tinubu-led administration, Ekpo said.
“The Federal Government is committed to developing Nigeria’s gas reserves through projects such as the Brass Methanol project, which presents an opportunity for the diversification of Nigeria’s economy.
“It is for this and other reasons that the project has been accorded the significant concessions (or support) that it enjoys from the government.
“Let me, therefore, assure you of the strong commitment of our government to the security and safety of yours and other investments as we have continually done for similar Chinese investments in Nigeria through the years”, he added.
Ekpo further tasked investors and contractors working on the project to double their efforts, saying, “I want to see this project running for the good of Nigeria and its investors”.
Earlier in his speech, Leader of the Chinese delegation, Mr Zheng Bi Jun, said the visit to the country was to carry out feasibility studies for investments in methanol projects.
On his part, the Managing Director of Brass Fertiliser and Petrochemical Ltd, Mr Ben Okoye, expressed optimism in partnering with genuine investors on the project.
Crude oil prices recently logged their second monthly gain in a row as OPEC+ extended their supply curb deal until the end of Q2 2024.
The gains have been considerable, with WTI adding about $7 per barrel over the month of February.
Yet a lot of analysts remain bearish about the commodity’s prospects. In fact, they believe that there is enough oil supply globally to keep Brent around $81 this year and WTI at some $76.50, according to a Reuters poll.
Yet, like last year in U.S. shale showed, there is always the possibility of a major surprise.
According to the respondents in that poll, what’s keeping prices tame is, first, the fact that the Red Sea crisis has not yet affected oil shipments in the region, thanks to alternative routes.
The second reason cited by the analysts is OPEC+ spare capacity, which has increased, thanks to the cuts.
“Spare capacity has reached a multi-year high, which will keep overall market sentiment under pressure over the coming months”, senior analyst, Florian Grunberger, told Reuters.
The perception of ample spare capacity is definitely one factor keeping traders and analysts bearish as they assume this capacity would be put into operation as soon as the market needs it. This may well be an incorrect assumption.
Saudi Arabia and OPEC have given multiple signs that they would only release more production if prices are to their liking, and if cuts are getting extended, then current prices are not to OPEC’s liking yet.
There is more, too. The Saudis, which are cutting the most and have the greatest spare capacity at around 3 million barrels daily right now, are acutely aware that the moment they release additional supply, prices will plunge.
Therefore, the chance of Saudi cuts being reversed anytime soon is pretty slim.
Then there is the U.S. oil production factor. Last year, analysts expected modest output additions from the shale patch because the rig count remained consistently lower than what it was during the strongest shale boom years.
That assumption proved wrong as drillers made substantial gains in well productivity that pushed total production to yet another record.
Perhaps a bit oddly, analysts are once again making a bold assumption for this year: that the productivity gains will continue at the same rate this year as well.
The Energy Information Administration disagrees. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the authority estimated that U.S. oil output had reached a record high of 13.3 million barrels daily that in January fell to 12.6 million bpd due to harsh winter weather.
For the rest of the year, however, the EIA has forecast a production level remaining around the December record, which will only be broken in February 2025.
Oil demand, meanwhile, will be growing. Wood Mackenzie recently predicted 2024 demand growth at 1.9 million barrels daily.
OPEC sees this year’s demand growth at 2.25 million barrels daily. The IEA is, as usual, the most modest in its expectations, seeing 2024 demand for oil grow by 1.2 million bpd.
With OPEC+ keeping a lid on production and U.S. production remaining largely flat on 2023, if the EIA is correct, a tightening of the supply situation is only a matter of time. Indeed, some are predicting that already.
Natural resource-focused investors Goehring and Rozencwajg recently released their latest market outlook, in which they warned that the oil market may already be in a structural deficit, to manifest later this year.
They also noted a change in the methodology that the EIA uses to estimate oil production, which may well have led to a serious overestimation of production growth.
The discrepancy between actual and reported production, Goehring and Rozencwajg said, could be so significant that the EIA may be estimating growth where there’s a production decline.
So, on the one hand, some pretty important assumptions are being made about demand, namely, that it will grow more slowly this year than it did last year.
This assumption is based on another one, by the way, and this is the assumption that EV sales will rise as strongly as they did last year, when they failed to make a dent in oil demand growth, and kill some oil demand.
On the other hand, there is the assumption that U.S. drillers will keep drilling like they did last year. What would motivate such a development is unclear, besides the expectation that Europe will take in even more U.S. crude this year than it already is.
This is a much safer assumption than the one about demand, by the way. And yet, there are indications from the U.S. oil industry that there will be no pumping at will this year. There will be more production discipline.
Predicting oil prices accurately, even over the shortest of periods, is as safe as flipping a coin. With the number of variables at play at any moment, accurate predictions are usually little more than a fluke, especially when perceptions play such an outsized role in price movements.
One thing is for sure, though. There may be surprises this year in oil.
lrina Slav
Slav writes for Oilprice.com.
