Opinion
Census In Crisis
Reservations trailing the decision by the federal government to conduct a national population census immediately after the 2023 general elections are not unexpected.
This is more so given the history of past censuses marred by intense controversy that robbed off negatively on their overall outcome and acceptance. With this contentious background, the minimum expectation was that the authorities should have taken measures to eliminate all stumbling blocks to a credible and generally acceptable national headcount.
But this projection appears not to have been properly factored in when the Director-General (DG) of Nigeria Population Commission, NPC Nasir Isa-Kwarra announced after the National Council of State meeting that the exercise will hold a month after the 2023 general elections. Curiously also, the agency intends to hold a pilot census this June after the primaries by political parties. The NPC boss sought to justify the imminence of the census on the ground that extant population data are obsolete projections and estimations with questionable value for planning purposes. It is an open secret that this country has no reliable census data. It is also not in doubt that previous attempts at a reliable census data were dogged by intense controversy, sometimes leading to the rejection of their outcome.
So the issue is not as much with the justification for a reliable national headcount as with its timing. Why the NPC scheduled its pilot scheme after primaries by political parties and the national census after the general elections remains unclear. Is there anything in the conduct of elections that promises to enhance the success and credibility of a national headcount? There is no evidence of that. Rather, the two engagements share common traits in their capacity to divide the country along the line. They are potentially rancorous and explosive.
Being potentially controversial and explosive engagements, there is the mortal risk of effectively managing eventualities arising from their outcome. Ours is a country where elections are synonymous with violence of unimaginable proportions leading to loss of lives and property. In some previous instances, it took considerable time before the crisis escalated by such elections could normalize.
It remains puzzling how a national census that may divide people along the line will fare immediately after usually disputed and rancorous polls. The probable scenario is one that will re-ignite the misgivings and distrusts usually generated by the outcome of such elections. Their combined outcome will likely produce consequences nobody can predict. In effect, having the two incongruous and controversial national assignments close to each other may ignite crisis of proportions that will make a child’s play of extant insecurity in the country.
Even now, many local government areas across the country are inaccessible on accounts of festering insecurity levied by all manner of non-state actors. There are genuine worries on the prospects of elections holding in those communities and local governments if insecurity remains in its current form. It is for the same reason that many well-meaning Nigerians have expressed doubts as to whether the 2023 polls will even hold.
Even if we manage to gamble the elections as INEC has vowed, it will be counterproductive to treat a national headcount similarly. It will make a mess of the entire exercise if people in crisis-torn areas are neither reached nor counted. The suspension of the continuous voters’ registration exercise by INEC in some local government areas should drive home this point most poignantly.
When you add up the potentially disruptive effects of do-or-die elections to the unceasing insecurity that has reduced the worth of human life in this country, one is not left in doubt that the proposed census is ill-timed and ill-advised. It is loaded with frightening prospects for sliding the country closer to the precipice.
The country is currently assailed by existential challenges from all fronts. It is more divided and fragmented than ever before with rising suspicion and mistrust among the constituents. Such misgivings are bound to exacerbate given the high premium the constituents place on the headcount. Things are not remedied by the fact that both revenue sharing and representation in national and state legislatures are based on population.
The two last censuses in 1991 and 2006 did not mark any departure from previous ones as they were equally embroiled in intense disputations as sections sought to gain advantage over others. But while that of 1991 posted a figure of 88.9 million people its 2006 variant came up with 140 million people.
Even then, the unreliability of these figures was brought to the fore by a former chairman of the NPC, Eze Festus Odimegwu. He had told officials of the INEC who approached his agency to officially release some certified data to them to assist in their planned constituency delimitation exercise that there were no officially certified data for all the localities in the country.
Hear him, “the enumeration centres we have, some of them do not exist in reality, some politicians bought them the way you will want to register voters and some people will buy voters’ cards in order to have advantage”. He said those who bought these enumeration areas, raised the figure from about ‘250 to 500 and if you later count and discover that the population is 10, they will say no, but we gave you 500, you have to raise it to that number that we gave you’.
Odimegwu lost his job for coming clear on the monumental fraud past censuses had been. But the issues raised illustrate how desperate our people can go on such issues and a measure of the level of controversy they engender. We can do with less of that crisis now.
Unless there is an agenda that must be executed before this regime exits office, the census should wait for the next government after it has satisfactorily addressed subsisting security challenges.
By: Emeka Omeihe
Omeihe writes for News Agency of Nigeria (NAN).
Before the Saturday, October 5, Local Government Council Election to midwife the rebirth of elected Local Government administrations in Rivers State, it was hard on me to believe that general elections can hold in Nigeria without the Nigerian Police and other statutory security organisations’ participation to provide security. So when the Abuja High Court restrained the Nigerian Police from giving security for a seamless, hitch-free election processes, I was startled on the security of election materials, adhoc staff of the Rivers State Independent Electoral Commission (RSIEC) and the voters, even though legal luminaries posit that it is not within the ambit of Federal courts to legislate on Local Government matters. Many people thought that the Inspector-General of Police’s decision to promptly obey judicial orders would either truncate the process or trigger voter apathy.
However, the outcome: violence-free, massive participation of voters even the participation of those who confessed that they had not exercised their franchise in the last 24 years of Nigeria democratic dispensation, does not only prove me wrong but also speak volumes of a people yearning for self determination at the grassroots. It also shows that the time of a marked departure from the ugly, repressive and dictatorial past has inevitably come to an end. It underscores the emergence of a new political order and structure that are the prerogative of the people and a function of legitimacy from the people, not a structure that is a product of a coercive, repressive , and other measures that negate democratic values and norms. For once, Rivers people have sent a message that they remain a distinct political entity with the right to decide who leads them.
The people of Rivers State, from the Ikwerres, the Kalabaris, Etches, Ndonis, Wakirikes, Andonis, the Ekpeyes, Ogonis, Abuans and several other micro ethnic and language people as a resilient and brave people have gained consciousness to dislodge the human instrument that perpetrates oppression even as Karl Marx said, “It is only when people are conscious of the fact that they are oppressed can they rise to dislodge the instrument that makes the oppression possible”. The October 5, Local Government Election, shows that despite its ethnic and language diversity Rivers State is homogeneous, united in corporate interest and goal. Rivers people have proven that general election without the presence of Nigerian Police is possible. Some voters have also alleged that considering the peaceful election achieved without the presence of Nigerian Police, the crisis-ridden elections in Nigeria may have been the architecture of the Police. Some believe that their presence poses a discomfort to voters and an uneasy calm in voting environment.
Now that it is possible to conduct elections without them the Federal and Sub- national electoral bodies can reduce cost of conducting elections. The huge budget allocated to security for election purposes presupposes waste, so can be channeled to other critical sectors. This laudable achievement-a peaceful election without Nigerian Police would have been elusive without the peaceful, mentally and emotionally matured, God-fearing disposition and Rivers First mantra of the Executive Governor, Siminalayi Fubara. The Governor’s passion for peace and development even amid provocative and inciting statements by detractors and enemies of Rivers State, has endeared him to the people and whittled down the influence and relevance of the opposition in Rivers State. It is not gainsaying the fact that in recent times, the Nigerian Police has flagrantly violated professional, ethical and moral standards.
The high command seems to have sacrificed their statutory obligations to the people on a whim for personal relationships and filthy lucre. They seem to have allowed pecuniary gains to dull and cloud their sense of reasoning and their primary statutory responsibilities of crime detection and prevention, protection of lives and property. The occupation of Local Government Council Secretariats in the 23 Local Government Areas of Rivers State by the Nigeria Police, preventing Caretaker Committees and staff of Local Government councils to access their offices to carry out legitimate duties when States with caretaker administrations functioned without Police interference, is a dent on the credibility and integrity of the Nigerian Police. At the wake of the political upheaval in Rivers State, the Executive Governor of the State, Sir Siminalayi Fubara, received his dose of the rascality of some men of the Nigerian Police. Canisters of water were shot at the Governor as gleaned from viral videos and other media outfits.
How could the Nigerian Police have descended so low to derecognise the Executive Governor who is the Chief Security Officer of Rivers State? What came on them to compromise their duties to the people and Government of Rivers State? How on earth could they have deemed serving the interest of one man in Abuja is paramount and transcends that of the generality of Rivers people? The Nigerian Police by their inactions and untoward activities in Rivers State, tried to convey a false assumption that there are two Governors in Rivers State. This animosity on the state lends support for the quest for and against State Police. A State Police formation will be necessary, Purpose-driven and effective under a cool-headed, humane, objective and listening governor like Governor Fubara. However, a State Police in control of the opposition in Rivers will be the German Nazis – an instrument of torture, oppression, and autocratic governance.
The Nigerian Police should be and be seen to be professional, neutral, non- partisan, conscientious and sagacious in their conduct, if they must earn the respect of the people. The Nigerian Police and the Judiciary should resist the allures of being used as anti-democratic institutions to truncate Nigeria’s hard-earned democracy. No doubt every profession has its hazards. If the challenges of a profession do not allow a person to uphold integrity and ethical standards, it is better to quit the job. It is honourable to die for what you know is right than living for the shadow, and the mundane. When money and wealth are lost, nothing is lost but when integrity is lost everything is lost.
Igbiki Benibo
That President Ahmed Bola Tinubu plans to reshuffle his cabinet is no more any secrets. Before now many notable Nigerians, civil society groups, socio-cultural bodies and even Mr President’s party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), have called on the president to weed-out non-performing officials from his government in the face of worsening hardships engendered by poorly conceived and implemented federal government policies. Mr President had himself hinted at heeding the calls when he warned that top government officials whose periodic performance reports turn out poor would be dropped from his government. “If you are performing, nothing to fear. If you miss the objective, we’ll review it. If no performance, you leave us. No one is an island and the buck stops on my desk,” President Tinubu had warned cabinet members and other top government officials, during a three-day retreat last November. Since then, a Central Delivery Coordination Unit headed by Presidential Special Adviser on Policy Coordination, Hadiza Bala-Usman, has been established to receive ministerial reports and measure performances. But while the criteria for performance verification and rating remain unknown, no publication has been made by the unit since its inception.
Nearly a year after inauguration, Tinubu’s cabinet remains the same in the face of worsening state of affairs, except for the suspension early this year, of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Alleviation Minister, Dr Betta Edu, following a financial scandal that so embarrassed the administration. Many had long expected far-reaching measures from President Tinubu to reverse the worsening economic hardships in the country. However, after rising unrests culminated into major nation-wide protests in August, and another billed for October, grapevine sources inside the presidency revealed frantic considerations of the calls for cabinet change. But would Mr President play to the gallery by appearing to yield to popular demands, or has he finally reckoned that rising poverty is pushing the nation towards breaking points, hence the need to re-tool? As lofty as the ‘Renewed Hope Agenda’ sounded, to many ordinary Nigerians, the reality of the mantra is nothing but abysmal failures.
But having dragged for months, it appears the supposed tonic of cabinet reshuffle poses a hard nut to crack for Mr President, which had set herculean tasks for presidential aides to continuously deny the hushed effort, until presidential spokesperson, Mr Bayo Onanuga, finally acquiesced to the veracity of the rumours. Ever since, the whirling vortex of rumours shifted from it being a possibility, to how soon it comes, much as speculations now brew on who makes or has made the new list, and who gets or got dropped from the current. Intense lobbies said to have been mounted at the presidency may have caused Mr President so much distractions to force him scamper abroad with the unfinished list, on a pretext of going on vacations. The inability of Mr President to make swift changes that quickly respond to urgent challenges reflects the complexity of our system and how sourcing for trusted technocrats, contending with vested interests and the need for political balance, may hamstring a government’s ability to maneuver through troubled times.
It is note-worthy however, that lasting solutions to many of Nigeria’s problems lie much not in cabinet make-ups than in corruption and the lack of sincere, political will to getting problems solved, which situates Mr President at the centre of blames for much of our nation’s current woes. For instance, if Mr President is determined at tackling Nigeria’s major economic failures of recent past, the first consideration should be to critically review the declining performance of the ministry of petroleum resources, which serially became lacklustre since the portfolio got vested on Mr President’s office since from the time of President Mohammadu Buhari in 2007. With the sole heartbeat of Nigeria’s mono-economy entrapped at the very busy office of Mr President, who has no time to over-see the day-to-day affairs of the petroleum sector, yet is so immuned to accountability summons, no one should wonder why the petroleum industry, as well as the Nigerian economy, has degenerated ever since. Coupled with general insecurity, the decline in official petroleum production data since then led to dwindling foriegn exchange, ballooning official debts and the current general inflation.
As for the performance of the ministry of defence, whose past lapses led to the destabilisation of Nigeria’s agricultural sector by bandits, the current momentum at last, against terrorism and banditry, looks encouraging. But while it is worrisome that sources reveal that some saboteurs who fraternise with terrorists also seat in our nation’s high offices, the direct accusation by a sitting governor against no smaller personality than the current minister of state for defence, is an alarm that should not be neglected. Even as the accused denies and reverses the accusation, government should beware that the presence of such controversial figures is a burden to the image of government. Mr President also needs to take serious reviews at the performance short-comings of our nation’s ministry of interior which over-sees law enforcement and compliance establishments. Bedevilled by corruption, inadequate financing and institutional weaknesses, some of these institutions fall short of expectations and reportedly bow most times, to the whims of corruption. The current Bobrisky saga for instance, has put the Nigerian Correctional Services and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission in gloom spotlight, and reflects how badly our institutions may have been compromised.
It is advisable however, that the move to scrap the Humanitarian Affairs Ministry may not be good for ordinary Nigerians who pass through the harshest consequences of the policies of this administration. Even if the ministry faces distrust from many due to years of non-transparent distribution of reliefs worth billions, and from which so many vulnerable Nigerians did not get a dime, Nigerians still desperately in need of bail-outs would prefer a disciplined and better managed public welfare ministry. The current situation in the country requires the collective concentration of all to ensure full recovery. The president should therefore beware of cabinet members who would let themselves be drawn to divisive political grand-standings that not only drain energies needed to restore the economy, but distract the focus of his government at tackling pressing challenges.
So, as Nigeria and Nigerians await President Tinubu reshuffle his cards for another chance at good governance, history beckons on him to set name and good marks, in gold.
Joseph Nwankwor
Over the years, the remarks of Konrad Adenuar, (January 6, 1876 – April 1967), a former Chancellor of Western Germany, that ”in view of the fact that God limited the intelligence of man, it seems unfair that He (God) did not also limit his stupidity”, has continued to agitate the minds of critics including public affairs analysts. This comment, which put succinctly, highlights God’s unfairness for supposedly setting definite limit on man’s wisdom (intelligence) but failed to set the same limit on man’s stupidity, has attracted wide spread condemnations from different sects; christians and non christians alike. Similarly, some critics, largely writers, hold the sentiment that society should not concentrate on juvenile delinquency alone but should also be concerned about what some identified as “adult delinquencies” since societal ills,grievious misdemeanors are traceable to adults, some of whom are leaders of thoughts occuping high offices.
Nigeria is replete with gutter Languages in public spaces deserving of concern and attention. One classic example is the recent outburst of Senator Adams Oshomhole, a former Governor of Edo State. It would be recalled that Senator Adams Oshomhole referred to the wife of the Governor of Edo State, Mrs Betsy Obaseki, as a barren woman.Truly, it could be said that Mrs Betsy Obaseki stoc the crisis when she referred to the governorship aspirant of All Progressive Congress (APC) Monday Okpebholo, as a man without a wife. Political campaigns should be undertaken or conducted to discuss issues and not insults to enable the electorate choose a credible leader who can provide solutions to societal challenges. No doubt, it is regrettable that a former labour leader, governor and now a serving Senator, Adams Aliya Oshomhole, considered as highly experienced to exhibit civility, maturity and superior acumen in a challenging situation such as this, particularly when viewed against the backdrop that the comrade- senator was not speaking at a political rally ground.
Recently, the West, particularly Europe, is returning artefacts stolen from ancient Benin Kingdom more than a century and thirty years ago which politicians can discuss with respect to diversifying the economy as well as provide solutions to numerous difficulties facing Edo State and Nigeria at large.Worse still, can any parent boast of having or rearing children by his or her self as to scorn an expectant family?. In the same way, the German statesman Konrad Adenuar cited above once noted: “History is the sum total of things that could have been avoided”. For instance, the former governor of Kaduna State, Nasiru El-Rufai, once told foreign powers planning to interfere into the 2019 general election to jettison the plan otherwise they would leave in body bags.’Body Bag!’.
The expression “leave in body bags”, is not befitting of a serving governor in all ramifications. As if that was not enough, the current Senate President and former Governor of Akwa Ibom State Senator Godswill Akpabio, referred to the contribution of a fellow law maker Natasha Akpoti Uduaghau as a “Night Club Comment”.This was another sad commentary and bad public communication made by a public office holder of equal ranking with a fellow colleague, because all senators are equal and therefore, the remarks by Senator Akpabio was regrettable even though he had apologized for his unfortunate outburst. Denigration of any sort should not be an option in pilloring the women folk in public places.
In fact, elder statesman, Pa. Edwin Clark, recently called on the Inspector of Police and President Tinubu to arrest the minister of Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Chief Nyesom Wike, for saying he (Wike ) will put fire in the states of PDP governors and officials who want to interfer with his political structures in Rivers State.To put fire is ambiquous and has frightening implications. The Bible is apt and ever correct when in proverbs 15:1 noted that “Soft answer turns away wrath but grievous words stir up anger”. The remarks cited above traceable to public officials and leaders in public spaces show pride, selfishness, arrogance and are capable of igniting crisis, if not nibbed in the bud. In addition to the provision of infrastructure, elected leaders must learn the acts of engaging in public communication, speaking life and not hate speach to build society for the better.Jesus Christ speaks in John 6:63 thus: “The words I speak they are Life and Spirit”.
It is instructive to observe that before David killed Goliath in it is recorded in 1st Samuel Chapter 17:24 – 45, that Goliath was very insultive, boastful, denigrating the army of Israel at the battle field before a non-soldier in the person of David over powered him- Goliath. Pride, they say, goes before the fall of man. This is why leaders in positions of trust should retrace their steps and be mindful of the words they speak and transmit in communicating with the electorate,fellow polititicians or their party members to engender peace in the polity and promote peaceful co-existence in Rivers State and Nigeria at large. The time to act is now.
Baridorn Sika
Sika, is a public affairs analyst.