Oil & Energy
Income Investors Returning To Oil, Gas Stocks
Some investors have started to see oil and gas stocks as income investment stocks rather than boom-and-bust cyclical stocks, as many others still believe. Record cash flows and profits of the past two quarters have prompted many oil and gas firms to boost dividends or pay special variable dividends, as is the case with U.S. shale producers.
Many more expanded and increased their share buyback programmes. The record profits and the cash flow bonanza could lay the foundations for more stable dividend payouts to shareholders, some investors believe. But others continue to see the industry as a cyclical business that slashes dividends when oil prices plunge.
The question for all investors going forward will be whether the industry will continue to keep disciplined spending and use more of its cash flows to reward shareholders.
Oil firms have pledged this much over the past two quarters, looking to attract investors and pay current shareholders who have stuck with their stocks through thick and thin over the past few years.
But what will oil companies do during the next bust? Will they be able to keep the current policy of rewarding shareholders more? Or will they resort, once again, to slashing or suspending dividends, as they did in the two major oil price busts of the past decade?
“The industry has seen a permanent transition to almost a high-yield, income space,” Morningstar analyst, David Meats, told Bloomberg while noting that the almost income-investment profile of oil stocks is unlikely to persist.
The current high dividend yields could be seen as a risk premium for investors for the cyclical nature of the stocks, Meats said.
Right now, oil stocks are looking attractive by some metrics. Analysts say that energy stocks are much cheaper than other sectors based on forward-year price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios.
Year to date, the energy sector has been the top-performing sector in the S&P 500 index, according to market data compiled by Yardeni Research.
The energy sector in the S&P 500 had gained 31.9 percent year to date to September 29. In comparison, S&P 500 is down 23.6 percent, and all other sectors have also lost ground since January.
Equity strategists, portfolio managers, and retail investors have grown increasingly bullish on energy stocks, the latest Bloomberg MLIV Pulse survey carried out in early September shows.
The poll of 814 respondents, including retail and portfolio investors, risk managers, buy-side and sell-side traders, equity strategists, and economists, showed that two-thirds of all respondents intended to increase their exposure to energy-related stocks and bonds over the next six months.
Moreover, nearly half—or 44 percent—of respondents say the current price of oil doesn’t adequately reflect actual supply and demand.
Stocks could remain attractive in the medium term, too, some analysts say.
“With the average company approaching ‘debt free’ status by early 2023, their ability to increase shareholder returns in the form of dividends and buybacks may be much greater,” Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Partners, said this week.
“Even with the rally earlier this year, energy stocks remained inexpensive and failed to even moderately embed an oil price above $100,” Nuttall added.
Stacey Morris, head of energy research at VettaFi, commented in mid-September on the observation that “energy stocks and oil happily decouple.”
“Oil prices typically dictate the direction of energy stocks, but thankfully for energy investors, that has not been the case over the last several weeks. Oil prices have seen three straight months of price declines and are down more than 30 percent from their relative high in June, but one may not realize that by looking at energy stock performance,” Morris said.
And she asked the million-dollar question: “Are investors finally looking past the volatility in oil prices to the actual merits of energy companies and the way they are returning cash to investors?”
By: Tsvetana Paraskova
Paraskova reports for Oilprice.com.
The Federal Government has expressed optimism in attracting more investments by International Oil Companies (IOCs) into Nigeria to foster growth and sustainability in the energy sector.
This is as some IOCs, particularly Shell and TotalEnergies, had announced plans to divest some of their assets from the country.
Recall that Shell in January, 2024 had said it would sell the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited (SPDC) to Renaissance.
According to the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, increasing investments by IOCs as well as boosting crude production to enhancing Nigeria’s position as a leading player in the global energy market, are the key objectives of the Government.
Lokpobiri emphasized the Ministry’s willingness to collaborate with State Governments, particularly Bayelsa State, in advancing energy sector transformation efforts.
The Minister, who stressed the importance of cooperation in achieving shared goals said, “we are open to partnerships with Bayelsa State Government for mutual progress”.
In response to Governor Douye Diri’s appeal for Ministry intervention in restoring the Atala Oil Field belonging to Bayelsa State, the Minister assured prompt attention to the matter.
He said, “We will look into the issue promptly and ensure fairness and equity in addressing state concerns”.
Lokpobiri explained that the Bayelsa State Governor, Douyi Diri’s visit reaffirmed the commitment of both the Federal and State Government’s readiness to work together towards a sustainable, inclusive, and prosperous energy future for Nigeria.
While speaking, Governor Diri commended the Minister for his remarkable performance in revitalisng the nation’s energy sector.
The Federal Government has assured investors in the nation’s gas sector of the security and safety of their investments.
Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, gave the assurance while hosting top officials of Shanghai Huayi Energy Chemical Company Group of China (HUAYI) and China Road and Bridge Corporation, who are strategic investors in Brass Methanol and Gas Hub Project in Bayelsa State.
The Minister in a statement stressed that Nigeria was open for investments and investors, insisting that present and prospective foreign investors have no need to entertain fear on the safety of their investment.
Describing the Brass project as one critical project of the President Bola Tinubu-led administration, Ekpo said.
“The Federal Government is committed to developing Nigeria’s gas reserves through projects such as the Brass Methanol project, which presents an opportunity for the diversification of Nigeria’s economy.
“It is for this and other reasons that the project has been accorded the significant concessions (or support) that it enjoys from the government.
“Let me, therefore, assure you of the strong commitment of our government to the security and safety of yours and other investments as we have continually done for similar Chinese investments in Nigeria through the years”, he added.
Ekpo further tasked investors and contractors working on the project to double their efforts, saying, “I want to see this project running for the good of Nigeria and its investors”.
Earlier in his speech, Leader of the Chinese delegation, Mr Zheng Bi Jun, said the visit to the country was to carry out feasibility studies for investments in methanol projects.
On his part, the Managing Director of Brass Fertiliser and Petrochemical Ltd, Mr Ben Okoye, expressed optimism in partnering with genuine investors on the project.
Crude oil prices recently logged their second monthly gain in a row as OPEC+ extended their supply curb deal until the end of Q2 2024.
The gains have been considerable, with WTI adding about $7 per barrel over the month of February.
Yet a lot of analysts remain bearish about the commodity’s prospects. In fact, they believe that there is enough oil supply globally to keep Brent around $81 this year and WTI at some $76.50, according to a Reuters poll.
Yet, like last year in U.S. shale showed, there is always the possibility of a major surprise.
According to the respondents in that poll, what’s keeping prices tame is, first, the fact that the Red Sea crisis has not yet affected oil shipments in the region, thanks to alternative routes.
The second reason cited by the analysts is OPEC+ spare capacity, which has increased, thanks to the cuts.
“Spare capacity has reached a multi-year high, which will keep overall market sentiment under pressure over the coming months”, senior analyst, Florian Grunberger, told Reuters.
The perception of ample spare capacity is definitely one factor keeping traders and analysts bearish as they assume this capacity would be put into operation as soon as the market needs it. This may well be an incorrect assumption.
Saudi Arabia and OPEC have given multiple signs that they would only release more production if prices are to their liking, and if cuts are getting extended, then current prices are not to OPEC’s liking yet.
There is more, too. The Saudis, which are cutting the most and have the greatest spare capacity at around 3 million barrels daily right now, are acutely aware that the moment they release additional supply, prices will plunge.
Therefore, the chance of Saudi cuts being reversed anytime soon is pretty slim.
Then there is the U.S. oil production factor. Last year, analysts expected modest output additions from the shale patch because the rig count remained consistently lower than what it was during the strongest shale boom years.
That assumption proved wrong as drillers made substantial gains in well productivity that pushed total production to yet another record.
Perhaps a bit oddly, analysts are once again making a bold assumption for this year: that the productivity gains will continue at the same rate this year as well.
The Energy Information Administration disagrees. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the authority estimated that U.S. oil output had reached a record high of 13.3 million barrels daily that in January fell to 12.6 million bpd due to harsh winter weather.
For the rest of the year, however, the EIA has forecast a production level remaining around the December record, which will only be broken in February 2025.
Oil demand, meanwhile, will be growing. Wood Mackenzie recently predicted 2024 demand growth at 1.9 million barrels daily.
OPEC sees this year’s demand growth at 2.25 million barrels daily. The IEA is, as usual, the most modest in its expectations, seeing 2024 demand for oil grow by 1.2 million bpd.
With OPEC+ keeping a lid on production and U.S. production remaining largely flat on 2023, if the EIA is correct, a tightening of the supply situation is only a matter of time. Indeed, some are predicting that already.
Natural resource-focused investors Goehring and Rozencwajg recently released their latest market outlook, in which they warned that the oil market may already be in a structural deficit, to manifest later this year.
They also noted a change in the methodology that the EIA uses to estimate oil production, which may well have led to a serious overestimation of production growth.
The discrepancy between actual and reported production, Goehring and Rozencwajg said, could be so significant that the EIA may be estimating growth where there’s a production decline.
So, on the one hand, some pretty important assumptions are being made about demand, namely, that it will grow more slowly this year than it did last year.
This assumption is based on another one, by the way, and this is the assumption that EV sales will rise as strongly as they did last year, when they failed to make a dent in oil demand growth, and kill some oil demand.
On the other hand, there is the assumption that U.S. drillers will keep drilling like they did last year. What would motivate such a development is unclear, besides the expectation that Europe will take in even more U.S. crude this year than it already is.
This is a much safer assumption than the one about demand, by the way. And yet, there are indications from the U.S. oil industry that there will be no pumping at will this year. There will be more production discipline.
Predicting oil prices accurately, even over the shortest of periods, is as safe as flipping a coin. With the number of variables at play at any moment, accurate predictions are usually little more than a fluke, especially when perceptions play such an outsized role in price movements.
One thing is for sure, though. There may be surprises this year in oil.
lrina Slav
Slav writes for Oilprice.com.
