Oil & Energy
What To Expect For Q3 Energy Earnings
The energy sector has enjoyed bumper profits in the current year, with Big Oil companies setting records right, left and center.
ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), Chevron (NYSE: CVX) and Shell (NYSE: SHEL) together brought in $46 billion in earnings in the second quarter, with all three setting new records for quarterly earnings. However, the outlook going forward is not quite as rosy.
It’s early innings into the earnings season, with just 7% of S&P 500 companies having reported third-quarter 2022 earnings.
Unlike the first two quarters of the year, the current one is shaping up as another disappointing show despite 69% of S&P 500 companies having reported a positive EPS surprise and 67% having reported a positive revenue surprise.
According to the latest FactSet earnings insight report, the blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is expected to clock in at a measly 1.6%, marking the lowest earnings growth rate reported by the index since Q3 2020 (-5.7%).
At least nine sectors, including energy, have downgraded their earnings expectations for the quarter, an indication of a deteriorating macro-economic outlook.
Indeed, FactSet says that downward revisions to revenue estimates for companies in the Energy sector have been a substantial contributor to the decline in the overall revenue growth rate for the S&P 500.
Still, the Energy sector is expected to report the highest earnings growth of all eleven sectors at 119.4%. Higher year-over-year oil prices are contributing to the year-over-year improvement in earnings for this sector, as the average price of oil in Q3 2022 ($91.43) was 30% above the average price for oil in Q3 2021 ($70.52). At the sub-industry level, all five sub-industries in the sector are expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings of more than 20%:
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing (273%); Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (116%); Integrated Oil & Gas (106%); Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (73%); and Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation (23%).
The Energy sector is also poised to be the top contributor to S&P 500 earnings growth for the third quarter in a row. If this sector were excluded, the index would be expected to report a decline in earnings of 4.9% rather than growth in earnings of 1.6%.
Big Oil Earnings
On a company level, several Big Oil companies are expected to return their Q3 2022 scorecards in the coming weeks.
Exxon Mobil Corporation is expected to report earnings on 10/28/2022 before the market opens.
The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Sep 2022. According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 9 analysts’ forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $3.59, a big improvement compared to $1.58 posted for last year’s corresponding period.
Chevron Corporation is expected to report earnings on 10/28/2022 before the market opens. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Sep 2022.
According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 8 analysts’ forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $5.06 vs. $2.96 for Q3 2021.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is expected to report earnings on 11/03/2022 before the market opens. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Sep 2022.
According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 7 analysts’ forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $3.74 vs. $1.77 for Q3 2021.
BP Plc. (NYSE: BP) is expected to report earnings on 11/01/2022 before the market opens. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Sep 2022.
Zacks Investment Research further states that based on 4 analysts’ forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $2.13 vs. $0.99 for Q3 2021.
Royal Dutch Shell Plc. (NYSE: SHEL) is estimated to report earnings on 10/27/2022. According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 3 analysts’ forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $3.18. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $1.06.
TotalEnergies SE (NYSE: TTE) is estimated to report earnings on 10/27/2022. According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 3 analysts’ forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $4.27 compared to $1.76 for Q3 2021.
Energy Sector Earnings Set To Ease In 2023, but Watch OFS
Unfortunately, slowing growth is expected to remain the main theme in the coming year. In a recent Moody’s research report, analysts say they have changed their outlook for the Global Energy sector to stable from positive.
According to the report, industry earnings will stabilize overall in 2023, but remain below levels reached by recent peaks.
The analysts note that commodity prices have declined from very high levels earlier in 2022, but have predicted that prices are likely to remain cyclically strong through 2023.
This, combined with modest growth in volumes, will support strong cash flow generation for oil and gas producers.
Moody’s estimates that the U.S. energy sector’s EBITDA for 2022 will clock in at $$623B but fall to $585B in 2023.
The analysts say that low capex, rising uncertainty about the expansion of future supplies and high geopolitical risk premium will, however, continue to support cyclically high oil prices.
Meanwhile, strong export demand for U.S. LNG will continue supporting high natural gas prices.
One particular standout from that report is how bullish the analysts are about the Oil Field Services (OFS) sector.
“Rising demand for oilfield services (OFS) amid some growth in drilling and completion activity will continue to boost pricing power and will support material growth in earnings for OFS companies,” the analysts wrote.
While discipline will still be the name of the game with regard to capacity, Moodys says pricing power will continue to strengthen next year, “allowing OFS companies to expand profit margins, even with labor and materials cost inflation”.
Moodys also expects improved profit margins for OFS from increasing day rates for onshore and offshore rigs, as well as higher future rates as customers renew contracts.
U.S. rigs are up by some 30% since January, and recovering to around 95% of their January 2020 levels, according to the report.
OFS companies have been reporting that drilling and well completion activity as well as pricing have been edging higher, while roughnecks are also saying they are seeing an increase in job offers.
Oilfield workers were some of the hardest hit demographic by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. Nationally, the oil and gas industry is estimated to have lost 107,000 jobs as per global consulting firm Deloitte, with an estimated 200,000 roughnecks losing their jobs at the height of the global lockdowns.
By: Alex Kimani
Kimani reports for Oilprice.com
Oil & Energy
FG Woos IOCs On Energy Growth
The Federal Government has expressed optimism in attracting more investments by International Oil Companies (IOCs) into Nigeria to foster growth and sustainability in the energy sector.
This is as some IOCs, particularly Shell and TotalEnergies, had announced plans to divest some of their assets from the country.
Recall that Shell in January, 2024 had said it would sell the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited (SPDC) to Renaissance.
According to the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, increasing investments by IOCs as well as boosting crude production to enhancing Nigeria’s position as a leading player in the global energy market, are the key objectives of the Government.
Lokpobiri emphasized the Ministry’s willingness to collaborate with State Governments, particularly Bayelsa State, in advancing energy sector transformation efforts.
The Minister, who stressed the importance of cooperation in achieving shared goals said, “we are open to partnerships with Bayelsa State Government for mutual progress”.
In response to Governor Douye Diri’s appeal for Ministry intervention in restoring the Atala Oil Field belonging to Bayelsa State, the Minister assured prompt attention to the matter.
He said, “We will look into the issue promptly and ensure fairness and equity in addressing state concerns”.
Lokpobiri explained that the Bayelsa State Governor, Douyi Diri’s visit reaffirmed the commitment of both the Federal and State Government’s readiness to work together towards a sustainable, inclusive, and prosperous energy future for Nigeria.
While speaking, Governor Diri commended the Minister for his remarkable performance in revitalisng the nation’s energy sector.
Oil & Energy
Your Investment Is Safe, FG Tells Investors In Gas
The Federal Government has assured investors in the nation’s gas sector of the security and safety of their investments.
Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, gave the assurance while hosting top officials of Shanghai Huayi Energy Chemical Company Group of China (HUAYI) and China Road and Bridge Corporation, who are strategic investors in Brass Methanol and Gas Hub Project in Bayelsa State.
The Minister in a statement stressed that Nigeria was open for investments and investors, insisting that present and prospective foreign investors have no need to entertain fear on the safety of their investment.
Describing the Brass project as one critical project of the President Bola Tinubu-led administration, Ekpo said.
“The Federal Government is committed to developing Nigeria’s gas reserves through projects such as the Brass Methanol project, which presents an opportunity for the diversification of Nigeria’s economy.
“It is for this and other reasons that the project has been accorded the significant concessions (or support) that it enjoys from the government.
“Let me, therefore, assure you of the strong commitment of our government to the security and safety of yours and other investments as we have continually done for similar Chinese investments in Nigeria through the years”, he added.
Ekpo further tasked investors and contractors working on the project to double their efforts, saying, “I want to see this project running for the good of Nigeria and its investors”.
Earlier in his speech, Leader of the Chinese delegation, Mr Zheng Bi Jun, said the visit to the country was to carry out feasibility studies for investments in methanol projects.
On his part, the Managing Director of Brass Fertiliser and Petrochemical Ltd, Mr Ben Okoye, expressed optimism in partnering with genuine investors on the project.
Oil & Energy
Oil Prices Record Second Monthly Gain
Crude oil prices recently logged their second monthly gain in a row as OPEC+ extended their supply curb deal until the end of Q2 2024.
The gains have been considerable, with WTI adding about $7 per barrel over the month of February.
Yet a lot of analysts remain bearish about the commodity’s prospects. In fact, they believe that there is enough oil supply globally to keep Brent around $81 this year and WTI at some $76.50, according to a Reuters poll.
Yet, like last year in U.S. shale showed, there is always the possibility of a major surprise.
According to the respondents in that poll, what’s keeping prices tame is, first, the fact that the Red Sea crisis has not yet affected oil shipments in the region, thanks to alternative routes.
The second reason cited by the analysts is OPEC+ spare capacity, which has increased, thanks to the cuts.
“Spare capacity has reached a multi-year high, which will keep overall market sentiment under pressure over the coming months”, senior analyst, Florian Grunberger, told Reuters.
The perception of ample spare capacity is definitely one factor keeping traders and analysts bearish as they assume this capacity would be put into operation as soon as the market needs it. This may well be an incorrect assumption.
Saudi Arabia and OPEC have given multiple signs that they would only release more production if prices are to their liking, and if cuts are getting extended, then current prices are not to OPEC’s liking yet.
There is more, too. The Saudis, which are cutting the most and have the greatest spare capacity at around 3 million barrels daily right now, are acutely aware that the moment they release additional supply, prices will plunge.
Therefore, the chance of Saudi cuts being reversed anytime soon is pretty slim.
Then there is the U.S. oil production factor. Last year, analysts expected modest output additions from the shale patch because the rig count remained consistently lower than what it was during the strongest shale boom years.
That assumption proved wrong as drillers made substantial gains in well productivity that pushed total production to yet another record.
Perhaps a bit oddly, analysts are once again making a bold assumption for this year: that the productivity gains will continue at the same rate this year as well.
The Energy Information Administration disagrees. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the authority estimated that U.S. oil output had reached a record high of 13.3 million barrels daily that in January fell to 12.6 million bpd due to harsh winter weather.
For the rest of the year, however, the EIA has forecast a production level remaining around the December record, which will only be broken in February 2025.
Oil demand, meanwhile, will be growing. Wood Mackenzie recently predicted 2024 demand growth at 1.9 million barrels daily.
OPEC sees this year’s demand growth at 2.25 million barrels daily. The IEA is, as usual, the most modest in its expectations, seeing 2024 demand for oil grow by 1.2 million bpd.
With OPEC+ keeping a lid on production and U.S. production remaining largely flat on 2023, if the EIA is correct, a tightening of the supply situation is only a matter of time. Indeed, some are predicting that already.
Natural resource-focused investors Goehring and Rozencwajg recently released their latest market outlook, in which they warned that the oil market may already be in a structural deficit, to manifest later this year.
They also noted a change in the methodology that the EIA uses to estimate oil production, which may well have led to a serious overestimation of production growth.
The discrepancy between actual and reported production, Goehring and Rozencwajg said, could be so significant that the EIA may be estimating growth where there’s a production decline.
So, on the one hand, some pretty important assumptions are being made about demand, namely, that it will grow more slowly this year than it did last year.
This assumption is based on another one, by the way, and this is the assumption that EV sales will rise as strongly as they did last year, when they failed to make a dent in oil demand growth, and kill some oil demand.
On the other hand, there is the assumption that U.S. drillers will keep drilling like they did last year. What would motivate such a development is unclear, besides the expectation that Europe will take in even more U.S. crude this year than it already is.
This is a much safer assumption than the one about demand, by the way. And yet, there are indications from the U.S. oil industry that there will be no pumping at will this year. There will be more production discipline.
Predicting oil prices accurately, even over the shortest of periods, is as safe as flipping a coin. With the number of variables at play at any moment, accurate predictions are usually little more than a fluke, especially when perceptions play such an outsized role in price movements.
One thing is for sure, though. There may be surprises this year in oil.
lrina Slav
Slav writes for Oilprice.com.