Oil & Energy
Gas Price Overshadows Crisis In Oil Prices
There have been so much media space dedicated to the gas supply troubles of the European Union and the associated spillover effect for developing economies that another fossil fuel problem has remained relatively unnoticed – oil prices.
Oil prices have been on a general decline over the past couple of months, shedding about 30 percent from the peaks reached earlier this year, pressured by expectations of a global economic slowdown.
The slowdown itself has a close causal link with energy prices, more specifically, oil and gas prices. And speaking of oil prices, despite the 30-percent drop in benchmarks, many buying nations are facing a steep bill for their oil imports, which would aggravate the challenge for their economies.
Take India, for instance, one of the world’s biggest oil importers. A recent analysis in the Indian Express detailed that because of the oil price rally from earlier this year, India’s trade deficit for the first half of the year had reached $150 billion and could double to $300 billion for the full year.
This would, in turn, cause a problem with the country’s balance of payments as various parts of the economy slow down due to higher oil prices, not just in India but in the West as well. And speaking of the West, its European part has similar oil price problems to those that India has.
In a recent article on the troubles of oil-importing nations, Bloomberg noted that Europe was more than just a major importer of natural gas. The continent, and the EU specifically, also imports most of the oil it consumes, meaning it is highly vulnerable to price swings.
All the big European economies, including Germany, Italy, Spain, and France, the report said, depended on imported oil for as much as 90 percent of their consumption. And this means that, like India and China, the EU has a problem with the U.S. dollar.
A rally in the greenback resulting from tighter monetary policies at the Fed contributed significantly to the affordability problem that most oil importers have been struggling with this year.
Since most of the oil traded around the world is priced in U.S. dollars, the more expensive the dollar, even if oil prices themselves haven’t changed much, the higher the import bill for this oil would be.
“A stronger dollar is a headwind for oil consumer nations whose currencies are not linked to the greenback,” Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS, told Bloomberg.
“Over the last 12 months, oil prices have increased much more in local currency terms”, he stated.
This state of affairs might have major implications for the oil markets of tomorrow. They might be markets with a bigger role for local currencies.
China—the world’s largest importer of oil—has been trying to expand the use of its national currency in international trade for years. By a happy coincidence, its BRICS partner and major oil supplier, Russia, is very much on board with the idea of local currencies, especially so after the EU began shooting sanction packages at it following the invasion of Ukraine.
Other developing nations, including India, are also entertaining the idea of replacing the global trade currency with their local currencies in bilateral trade deals. India has even developed a mechanism for international deal settlement in rupees, although it is still paying for Russian oil in U.S. dollars.
This might be an emerging trend worth watching, but how it could play out in the European Union is an entirely different matter. The EU has time and again declared its close alliance with the U.S., especially in energy.
So, moving away from the greenback for oil trades would probably be as bad of an idea as President Macron’s accusations that the U.S. is employing double standards in having lower gas prices at home than the price of the LNG that U.S. companies sell to Europe.
Yet, with the U.S. dollar’s important role in the affordability of oil amid what is increasingly looking like a global economic slowdown, other importing nations might get a boost for their plans to move away from it and start using their local currencies more.
By: Irina Slav
Slav reports for Oilprice.com.
The Federal Government has expressed optimism in attracting more investments by International Oil Companies (IOCs) into Nigeria to foster growth and sustainability in the energy sector.
This is as some IOCs, particularly Shell and TotalEnergies, had announced plans to divest some of their assets from the country.
Recall that Shell in January, 2024 had said it would sell the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited (SPDC) to Renaissance.
According to the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, increasing investments by IOCs as well as boosting crude production to enhancing Nigeria’s position as a leading player in the global energy market, are the key objectives of the Government.
Lokpobiri emphasized the Ministry’s willingness to collaborate with State Governments, particularly Bayelsa State, in advancing energy sector transformation efforts.
The Minister, who stressed the importance of cooperation in achieving shared goals said, “we are open to partnerships with Bayelsa State Government for mutual progress”.
In response to Governor Douye Diri’s appeal for Ministry intervention in restoring the Atala Oil Field belonging to Bayelsa State, the Minister assured prompt attention to the matter.
He said, “We will look into the issue promptly and ensure fairness and equity in addressing state concerns”.
Lokpobiri explained that the Bayelsa State Governor, Douyi Diri’s visit reaffirmed the commitment of both the Federal and State Government’s readiness to work together towards a sustainable, inclusive, and prosperous energy future for Nigeria.
While speaking, Governor Diri commended the Minister for his remarkable performance in revitalisng the nation’s energy sector.
The Federal Government has assured investors in the nation’s gas sector of the security and safety of their investments.
Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, gave the assurance while hosting top officials of Shanghai Huayi Energy Chemical Company Group of China (HUAYI) and China Road and Bridge Corporation, who are strategic investors in Brass Methanol and Gas Hub Project in Bayelsa State.
The Minister in a statement stressed that Nigeria was open for investments and investors, insisting that present and prospective foreign investors have no need to entertain fear on the safety of their investment.
Describing the Brass project as one critical project of the President Bola Tinubu-led administration, Ekpo said.
“The Federal Government is committed to developing Nigeria’s gas reserves through projects such as the Brass Methanol project, which presents an opportunity for the diversification of Nigeria’s economy.
“It is for this and other reasons that the project has been accorded the significant concessions (or support) that it enjoys from the government.
“Let me, therefore, assure you of the strong commitment of our government to the security and safety of yours and other investments as we have continually done for similar Chinese investments in Nigeria through the years”, he added.
Ekpo further tasked investors and contractors working on the project to double their efforts, saying, “I want to see this project running for the good of Nigeria and its investors”.
Earlier in his speech, Leader of the Chinese delegation, Mr Zheng Bi Jun, said the visit to the country was to carry out feasibility studies for investments in methanol projects.
On his part, the Managing Director of Brass Fertiliser and Petrochemical Ltd, Mr Ben Okoye, expressed optimism in partnering with genuine investors on the project.
Crude oil prices recently logged their second monthly gain in a row as OPEC+ extended their supply curb deal until the end of Q2 2024.
The gains have been considerable, with WTI adding about $7 per barrel over the month of February.
Yet a lot of analysts remain bearish about the commodity’s prospects. In fact, they believe that there is enough oil supply globally to keep Brent around $81 this year and WTI at some $76.50, according to a Reuters poll.
Yet, like last year in U.S. shale showed, there is always the possibility of a major surprise.
According to the respondents in that poll, what’s keeping prices tame is, first, the fact that the Red Sea crisis has not yet affected oil shipments in the region, thanks to alternative routes.
The second reason cited by the analysts is OPEC+ spare capacity, which has increased, thanks to the cuts.
“Spare capacity has reached a multi-year high, which will keep overall market sentiment under pressure over the coming months”, senior analyst, Florian Grunberger, told Reuters.
The perception of ample spare capacity is definitely one factor keeping traders and analysts bearish as they assume this capacity would be put into operation as soon as the market needs it. This may well be an incorrect assumption.
Saudi Arabia and OPEC have given multiple signs that they would only release more production if prices are to their liking, and if cuts are getting extended, then current prices are not to OPEC’s liking yet.
There is more, too. The Saudis, which are cutting the most and have the greatest spare capacity at around 3 million barrels daily right now, are acutely aware that the moment they release additional supply, prices will plunge.
Therefore, the chance of Saudi cuts being reversed anytime soon is pretty slim.
Then there is the U.S. oil production factor. Last year, analysts expected modest output additions from the shale patch because the rig count remained consistently lower than what it was during the strongest shale boom years.
That assumption proved wrong as drillers made substantial gains in well productivity that pushed total production to yet another record.
Perhaps a bit oddly, analysts are once again making a bold assumption for this year: that the productivity gains will continue at the same rate this year as well.
The Energy Information Administration disagrees. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the authority estimated that U.S. oil output had reached a record high of 13.3 million barrels daily that in January fell to 12.6 million bpd due to harsh winter weather.
For the rest of the year, however, the EIA has forecast a production level remaining around the December record, which will only be broken in February 2025.
Oil demand, meanwhile, will be growing. Wood Mackenzie recently predicted 2024 demand growth at 1.9 million barrels daily.
OPEC sees this year’s demand growth at 2.25 million barrels daily. The IEA is, as usual, the most modest in its expectations, seeing 2024 demand for oil grow by 1.2 million bpd.
With OPEC+ keeping a lid on production and U.S. production remaining largely flat on 2023, if the EIA is correct, a tightening of the supply situation is only a matter of time. Indeed, some are predicting that already.
Natural resource-focused investors Goehring and Rozencwajg recently released their latest market outlook, in which they warned that the oil market may already be in a structural deficit, to manifest later this year.
They also noted a change in the methodology that the EIA uses to estimate oil production, which may well have led to a serious overestimation of production growth.
The discrepancy between actual and reported production, Goehring and Rozencwajg said, could be so significant that the EIA may be estimating growth where there’s a production decline.
So, on the one hand, some pretty important assumptions are being made about demand, namely, that it will grow more slowly this year than it did last year.
This assumption is based on another one, by the way, and this is the assumption that EV sales will rise as strongly as they did last year, when they failed to make a dent in oil demand growth, and kill some oil demand.
On the other hand, there is the assumption that U.S. drillers will keep drilling like they did last year. What would motivate such a development is unclear, besides the expectation that Europe will take in even more U.S. crude this year than it already is.
This is a much safer assumption than the one about demand, by the way. And yet, there are indications from the U.S. oil industry that there will be no pumping at will this year. There will be more production discipline.
Predicting oil prices accurately, even over the shortest of periods, is as safe as flipping a coin. With the number of variables at play at any moment, accurate predictions are usually little more than a fluke, especially when perceptions play such an outsized role in price movements.
One thing is for sure, though. There may be surprises this year in oil.
lrina Slav
Slav writes for Oilprice.com.