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Fitch Affirms Nigeria’s FCID Rating, Retains Stable Outlook On Reforms
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at ‘B-‘ with a stable outlook, citing the reforms being implemented by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.
A year ago, the global rating agency lowered the country’s credit score to ‘B-‘ from ‘B’ and attributed the downgrade to continued deterioration in government debt servicing costs and external liquidity despite high oil prices in 2022.
It also affirmed this in May this year.
“Reform progress since President Bola Tinubu’s government came to power in May 2023 has been faster than we anticipated at our last review,” it said in a statement, citing the removal of fuel subsidies, the unification of the multiple exchange rate windows and the devaluation of the naira.
However, there has recently been some backtracking on reforms, notably a lower degree of price discovery in the FX market than in late June, raising doubt about the strength of this positive momentum, Fitch said.
“In addition, new data on the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) suggests its net foreign-exchange position is substantially weaker than we previously understood,” it said.
The country’s rating is constrained by weak governance, structurally very low non-oil revenue, high hydrocarbon dependence, security challenges, high inflation, low net FX reserves and ongoing weakness in the exchange-rate framework, according to the rating agency.
Fitch views Tinubu’s cabinet, particularly Finance Minister, Wale Edun, and the new CBN governor as supportive of reform.
“However, there are still sizeable socio-political challenges to implementation, including an acceleration in inflation, which could account for recent backtracking of some reforms,” it said.
Fitch said FX shortages has continued to weigh on economic activity and further FX liberalisation, and deter foreign capital.
In October, the CBN lifted the ban on providing FX for imports of 43 items, and began this week to clear nearly $6.7billion of unmet FX forwards.
“However, there has been a renewed widening of the gap between the official and parallel exchange rates since July with a premium of over 30 percent over the official rate.
“Average daily FX turnover at the official exchange rate window has fallen back to near April 2023 levels (well below pre-pandemic), at $95million in September,” the agency said.
Fitch flagged a lack of detail on a recent government announcement to raise $10billion of FX, including whether this includes World Bank budget support loans of $1.5billion.
It said the country’s public debt (excluding CBN loans) has a fairly long average maturity of 9.7 years.
It said: “The securitisation of N23trillion of CBN loans at a lower interest rate of 9 percent has helped contain general government interest costs, but at near 42 percent of revenues, overall interest expenditure is well above the ‘B’ median of 10.9 percent.
“We expect much lower recourse to CBN financing in 2023-2024 than in 2022, although there is a risk demand from the domestic banking sector turns out to be weaker than expected, despite its ample liquidity and strong deposit growth (38 percent in 1H23 year-on-year).”
Fitch forecasts general government debt/GDP to stabilise at 43.9 percent of GDP in 2024-25, having risen from 35.2 percent at the end of 2022 on the depreciation of the naira.
“We project GDP to slow to 2.6 percent in 2023, from 3.3 percent in 2022, and to expand 3.2 percent in 2024 driven by the services sector and higher oil production.
“Nigeria’s already structurally high inflation rose to an average of 25.5 percent yoy in 3Q23, from 20.3 percent yoy in 3Q22, partly reflecting fuel subsidy removal and naira devaluation,” it said.
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Nigeria, UK To Strengthen Bilateral Ties
The United Kingdom’s Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, arrived in Nigeria yesterday on his first official visit to Africa, underscoring a renewed emphasis on economic collaboration and growth-centered diplomacy between the UK and African nations.
His visit marks the beginning of a five-month consultation aimed at reshaping UK-Africa relations to prioritise African voices and ambitions across the continent.
This was contained in a statement signed and released by the Senior Press and Public Affairs Officer, British Deputy High Commission in Lagos, Ndidiamaka Eze, on Sunday.
In Nigeria, Lammy will advocate for deeper trade and investment ties, supporting what he described as a fresh, respectful approach that builds “long-term growth rather than short-term solutions.”
Lammy stressed Africa’s significant potential, noting that by 2050, it is set to account for a quarter of the world’s population.
His goal is to build relationships where “the UK and our friends and partners in Africa can grow together.”
“Africa has huge growth potential, with the continent on track to make up 25 per cent of the world’s population by 2050.
“Our new approach will deliver respectful partnerships that listen rather than tell, deliver long-term growth rather than short-term solutions, and build a freer, safer, more prosperous continent.
“Growth is the core mission of this government and will underpin our relationships in Nigeria and beyond. This will mean more jobs, more prosperity, and more opportunities for Brits and Africans alike,” the statement read.
The visit came as part of a broader strategy to elevate UK engagement in Africa, with Lammy scheduled to meet with President Bola Tinubu, Foreign Minister Yusuf Tuggar, and Lagos State Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu.
His agenda includes furthering the UK-Nigeria Enhanced Trade and Investment Partnership, which was signed earlier this year to expand trade and market access between the two countries.
The partnership aimed to boost economic opportunities, fostering jobs, and prosperity for both British and Nigerian citizens.
As part of his commitment to supporting Nigeria’s economic reforms, Lammy will introduce a technical assistance package designed to support the Nigerian Ministry of Finance.
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Reps To Probe $2bn Renewable Energy Investment
The House of Representatives Committee on Renewable Energy has invited stakeholders to an investigative hearing on the $2bn renewable energy grants and investments in Nigeria.
According to the Committee, the investment has not had a proportional impact on the nation’s energy security challenges.
In July 2024, President Bola Tinubu disclosed at the Africa Natural Resource and Energy Investment Summit in Nigeria that the nation had attracted over $2bn of investment in the sector in the past decade.
“Over the past decade, Nigeria has attracted over $2bn in investment in the renewable energy sector, making it a fast-growing part of the economy. Our commitment is to continue on this path and attract more private sector involvement in the renewable energy space, including manufacturing locally produced solar panels and batteries.
“By encouraging local production of equipment, we can reduce implementation costs, thereby lowering the threshold for electrification,” the President was quoted as saying.
Scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday, 5 and 6 November 2024, the investigative hearing follows the mandate given to the Committee on 6 June 2024 to investigate Ministries, Departments, and Agencies involved in investments, procurement, and receipt of grants for renewable energy sector development.
In a statement issued on Sunday by the Committee Chairman, Victor Ogene, in Abuja, the probe will cover the period from 2015 to 2024.
The lawmaker said the House was shocked that “Despite the government attracting over $2bn in renewable energy investments in the past decade, as reported by the Rural Electrification Agency in 2023, there has been no noticeable improvement in the sector.
“The House of Representatives was alarmed that the dysfunctional electricity generation and supply system persists, contrary to the objectives behind government investments and grants aimed at developing the renewable energy sector. Hence, the resolution to probe these investments to determine the integrity of the procurement and execution processes.”
He noted that the probe is not a witch-hunt but an exercise to discourage shady dealings and promote transparency and objectivity in managing government or public resources.
The House’s resolutions followed the adoption of a motion titled “Need to Investigate Investments in the Renewable Energy Sector and Foreign Grants Received from 2015 Till Date,” sponsored by the lawmaker representing Oshodi-Isolo II Federal Constituency, Lagos State, Mr Okey-Joe Onuakalusi.
Leading the debate, the lawmaker said the parliament was aware that poor electricity generation, transmission, and distribution pose a significant threat to the nation’s industrial and technological development goals.
According to the lawmakers, successive governments since 2015 have made substantial investments and attracted multimillion-dollar foreign grants for Nigeria’s renewable energy subsector to create a viable and sustainable alternative energy supply.
They noted that in December 2023, the World Bank approved a $750m facility to boost renewable energy in Nigeria, aiming to provide over 17.5 million Nigerians with improved access to electricity through distributed renewable energy solutions.
They also noted that in 2020, the Federal Government launched a $200m renewable energy project, the ‘Nigeria Electrification Project,’ targeted at providing off-grid energy to over 500,000 people across 105,000 households in rural communities, funded by the African Development Bank.
Agencies invited to the public hearing include, but are not limited to, the Rural Electrification Agency, Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board, Nigerian Sovereign Investment Authority, National Agency for Science and Engineering Infrastructure, and the Ministry of Petroleum Resources.
Also invited are the Country Representative of the European Union, Union Bank Plc (Compliance Department), Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation, Federal Ministry of Power, Energy Commission of Nigeria, and Federal Ministry of Finance.
Other invited entities include the Niger Delta Power Holding Company, Federal Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy, Federal Ministry of Environment and Ecological Management, Federal Ministry of Petroleum (Gas Resources), Niger Delta Development Commission, United States Agency for International Development, Federal Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning, Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, Accountant General of the Federation, and Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Associations, among others.
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Rosicrucians Prioritise Societal Dev
Rosicrucian Order, English Grand Lodge for West Africa, has urged Rosicrucians all over the world to contribute their quota towards the political and economic development of their countries.
The Order, which gave the task at the AMORC Convention, Port Harcourt 2024, also called on them to remain exemplary in their conducts.
It charged them to radiate love wherever they find themselves as the theme of the convention was “Universal Love.”
Declaring the convention open, the Imperator and President Supreme Grand Lodge (AMORC), Frater Claudio Mazzucco, urged members to ensure a better society for present and future generations.
He also described the convention as historic, and charged them to continue to radiate love to all humanity.
Meanwhile in his message, the Grand Master-designate, Eugenius Idiodi, urged the delegates to reflect on the theme of the convention.
“As we come together under the guiding theme of ‘universal love’ let us pause for a moment to reflect on the profound significance of this gathering and the journey that has brought us to this point”.
Idiodi also described members of the Order as “seeds of various kinds sown into the soil, each with the potentials to bloom into something unique and beautiful”.
“Yet no matter their individual forms, all these seeds share common nurturing light of the sun, the sustaining nourishment of the Earth and the gentle touch of water”, he added.
Grand Master-designate said each member of the Order is like a seed which has the potentials to blossom into its highest level.
In his words, “And just as the seeds in the garden depend on the forces of nature, we too require the nourishing power of universal love to flourish, not as individuals but as a global community bound by the sacred principles of the Rosicrucian tradition”.
Idiodi described the convention as a symbol of collective journey, stressing that members are on a journey towards deeper understanding, compassion and enlightenment.
The Chairman of Local Organising Committee, Edwin I. Obani, said the convention would mark the golden jubilee of the English West Africa Lodge and the installation of the Grand Master-designate, Frater Eugenius Idiodi.
Obani said the event would afford members from the different countries in West Africa to rekindle the love of universal love.
Later at a press conference, members of the Order, including the Imperator and President Supreme Grand Lodge, Claudio Mazzucco, Frater Kenneth Idiodi, Eugenius Idiodi, Lucy Crawford Sandison and Olabimpe Giwa, said love remains the only antidote to solving all societal problems.
They urged members of the society to show love not only to fellow humans but also to mother earth.
The convention marks the Golden Jubilee of the West African Lodge.
By: John Bibor
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