Oil & Energy
Autogas Policy: Masters Energy Advocates Increased Gas Availability
To encourage both marketing companies and the Nigerian masses to key into the Federal Government’s Autogas policy, Masters Energy Oil and Gas Limited has advocated increased gas production and availability in the domestic market.
The company also urged the government to put in place measures aimed at addressing the foreign exchange challenge that is posing a major hiccup in the importation and marketing of petroleum products in the country.
The Executive Director, Operations, Masters Energy Group, Felix Eribo, who made the call during a Media Chat in Lagos, said the company was already keying into the Autogas policy, which he said is more popular with the use of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) to power vehicles both mass transit buses and private cars.
While stating that Masters Energy was collaborating with the government to ensure the success of the Autogas programme, Eribo revealed that it has started establishing its CNG refilling stations across its major filling stations in the country.
Eribo noted that CNG is cheaper than petrol, stating however that the challenge in its adoption was the unavailability of the gas, a factor which he said not only discourages marketers from setting up CNG refilling plants, but also dampens the willingness of vehicle owners to convert their vehicles to CNG-powered.
He said, “we have over 300 filling stations across the country. So, we are keying into that Autogas policy. And we have started establishing our CNG refilling stations starting from our major filling stations in major cities across the country, especially in the South-east.
“So, to address this, the Federal Government has to ensure that the gas we flare is converted to CNG. When the CNG is available and we can get it, we can then establish the refilling plants in all the stations. Presently, CNG is comparatively cheaper than petrol, but the availability is the main issue.
“Today, a lot of people want to use CNG but nobody wants to convert his or her car when there is no CNG to power it. So, the first thing is, CNG should be available before you ask people to convert their vehicles. But in terms of adoption, CNG is in our blueprint already, so we are keying into it”.
He specifically urged the Federal Government to address the FX constraints in products importation by mandating the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA), the Nigerian Customs, the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA), among other agencies, to begin the collection of all import-related charges and fees in naira rather than in dollar.
In his words, “in terms of the FX issue, the Federal Government has a lot to do to manage the FX element in the template. I give you an example: we hire vessels here in Nigeria and most of the vessels are foreign vessels. We have to pay in dollars. But I assume that is outside the government’s purview.
“But, why should NPA charge in dollars? Because they charge in dollars, you are not going to get that dollar from the CBN. You are putting more pressure on the dollar and everybody who is dealing in petroleum products will have to pay in dollars to government agencies. And the rate continues to go up.
“If the Federal Government can mandate NPA to charge in naira, it will achieve two things: one, it will reduce the pressure on naira and it will reduce the landing cost of that PMS or whatever product because you are now paying in naira.
“Then, NIMASA, CABOTAGE, all these are being charged in dollars whereas we are selling the products in naira. So, if we can manage those forex elements within the template, the pressure will come down”.
Despite the challenges around FX and high agency fees which all marketers are grappling with, the Masters Energy Director said, the company remains a customer-centric company that feels the plight of the masses and makes its products highly affordable.
“One good thing in the oil and gas business is your capacity and your efficiency. If you are able to manage your cost efficiently, you will be able to compete in the market and make profit and Masters Energy is doing that well”, he added.
Oil & Energy
FG Woos IOCs On Energy Growth
The Federal Government has expressed optimism in attracting more investments by International Oil Companies (IOCs) into Nigeria to foster growth and sustainability in the energy sector.
This is as some IOCs, particularly Shell and TotalEnergies, had announced plans to divest some of their assets from the country.
Recall that Shell in January, 2024 had said it would sell the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited (SPDC) to Renaissance.
According to the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, increasing investments by IOCs as well as boosting crude production to enhancing Nigeria’s position as a leading player in the global energy market, are the key objectives of the Government.
Lokpobiri emphasized the Ministry’s willingness to collaborate with State Governments, particularly Bayelsa State, in advancing energy sector transformation efforts.
The Minister, who stressed the importance of cooperation in achieving shared goals said, “we are open to partnerships with Bayelsa State Government for mutual progress”.
In response to Governor Douye Diri’s appeal for Ministry intervention in restoring the Atala Oil Field belonging to Bayelsa State, the Minister assured prompt attention to the matter.
He said, “We will look into the issue promptly and ensure fairness and equity in addressing state concerns”.
Lokpobiri explained that the Bayelsa State Governor, Douyi Diri’s visit reaffirmed the commitment of both the Federal and State Government’s readiness to work together towards a sustainable, inclusive, and prosperous energy future for Nigeria.
While speaking, Governor Diri commended the Minister for his remarkable performance in revitalisng the nation’s energy sector.
Oil & Energy
Your Investment Is Safe, FG Tells Investors In Gas
The Federal Government has assured investors in the nation’s gas sector of the security and safety of their investments.
Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, gave the assurance while hosting top officials of Shanghai Huayi Energy Chemical Company Group of China (HUAYI) and China Road and Bridge Corporation, who are strategic investors in Brass Methanol and Gas Hub Project in Bayelsa State.
The Minister in a statement stressed that Nigeria was open for investments and investors, insisting that present and prospective foreign investors have no need to entertain fear on the safety of their investment.
Describing the Brass project as one critical project of the President Bola Tinubu-led administration, Ekpo said.
“The Federal Government is committed to developing Nigeria’s gas reserves through projects such as the Brass Methanol project, which presents an opportunity for the diversification of Nigeria’s economy.
“It is for this and other reasons that the project has been accorded the significant concessions (or support) that it enjoys from the government.
“Let me, therefore, assure you of the strong commitment of our government to the security and safety of yours and other investments as we have continually done for similar Chinese investments in Nigeria through the years”, he added.
Ekpo further tasked investors and contractors working on the project to double their efforts, saying, “I want to see this project running for the good of Nigeria and its investors”.
Earlier in his speech, Leader of the Chinese delegation, Mr Zheng Bi Jun, said the visit to the country was to carry out feasibility studies for investments in methanol projects.
On his part, the Managing Director of Brass Fertiliser and Petrochemical Ltd, Mr Ben Okoye, expressed optimism in partnering with genuine investors on the project.
Oil & Energy
Oil Prices Record Second Monthly Gain
Crude oil prices recently logged their second monthly gain in a row as OPEC+ extended their supply curb deal until the end of Q2 2024.
The gains have been considerable, with WTI adding about $7 per barrel over the month of February.
Yet a lot of analysts remain bearish about the commodity’s prospects. In fact, they believe that there is enough oil supply globally to keep Brent around $81 this year and WTI at some $76.50, according to a Reuters poll.
Yet, like last year in U.S. shale showed, there is always the possibility of a major surprise.
According to the respondents in that poll, what’s keeping prices tame is, first, the fact that the Red Sea crisis has not yet affected oil shipments in the region, thanks to alternative routes.
The second reason cited by the analysts is OPEC+ spare capacity, which has increased, thanks to the cuts.
“Spare capacity has reached a multi-year high, which will keep overall market sentiment under pressure over the coming months”, senior analyst, Florian Grunberger, told Reuters.
The perception of ample spare capacity is definitely one factor keeping traders and analysts bearish as they assume this capacity would be put into operation as soon as the market needs it. This may well be an incorrect assumption.
Saudi Arabia and OPEC have given multiple signs that they would only release more production if prices are to their liking, and if cuts are getting extended, then current prices are not to OPEC’s liking yet.
There is more, too. The Saudis, which are cutting the most and have the greatest spare capacity at around 3 million barrels daily right now, are acutely aware that the moment they release additional supply, prices will plunge.
Therefore, the chance of Saudi cuts being reversed anytime soon is pretty slim.
Then there is the U.S. oil production factor. Last year, analysts expected modest output additions from the shale patch because the rig count remained consistently lower than what it was during the strongest shale boom years.
That assumption proved wrong as drillers made substantial gains in well productivity that pushed total production to yet another record.
Perhaps a bit oddly, analysts are once again making a bold assumption for this year: that the productivity gains will continue at the same rate this year as well.
The Energy Information Administration disagrees. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the authority estimated that U.S. oil output had reached a record high of 13.3 million barrels daily that in January fell to 12.6 million bpd due to harsh winter weather.
For the rest of the year, however, the EIA has forecast a production level remaining around the December record, which will only be broken in February 2025.
Oil demand, meanwhile, will be growing. Wood Mackenzie recently predicted 2024 demand growth at 1.9 million barrels daily.
OPEC sees this year’s demand growth at 2.25 million barrels daily. The IEA is, as usual, the most modest in its expectations, seeing 2024 demand for oil grow by 1.2 million bpd.
With OPEC+ keeping a lid on production and U.S. production remaining largely flat on 2023, if the EIA is correct, a tightening of the supply situation is only a matter of time. Indeed, some are predicting that already.
Natural resource-focused investors Goehring and Rozencwajg recently released their latest market outlook, in which they warned that the oil market may already be in a structural deficit, to manifest later this year.
They also noted a change in the methodology that the EIA uses to estimate oil production, which may well have led to a serious overestimation of production growth.
The discrepancy between actual and reported production, Goehring and Rozencwajg said, could be so significant that the EIA may be estimating growth where there’s a production decline.
So, on the one hand, some pretty important assumptions are being made about demand, namely, that it will grow more slowly this year than it did last year.
This assumption is based on another one, by the way, and this is the assumption that EV sales will rise as strongly as they did last year, when they failed to make a dent in oil demand growth, and kill some oil demand.
On the other hand, there is the assumption that U.S. drillers will keep drilling like they did last year. What would motivate such a development is unclear, besides the expectation that Europe will take in even more U.S. crude this year than it already is.
This is a much safer assumption than the one about demand, by the way. And yet, there are indications from the U.S. oil industry that there will be no pumping at will this year. There will be more production discipline.
Predicting oil prices accurately, even over the shortest of periods, is as safe as flipping a coin. With the number of variables at play at any moment, accurate predictions are usually little more than a fluke, especially when perceptions play such an outsized role in price movements.
One thing is for sure, though. There may be surprises this year in oil.
lrina Slav
Slav writes for Oilprice.com.