Opinion
Cautious Optimism As Naira Rebounds
It has been good news since the past three weeks as our national currency, the Naira, continues to regain its lost value. The recovery follows frantic efforts by a government whose ill-advised, inaugural policies had set the legal tender, and the whole economy, tumbling.
The naira took an unprecedented plunge from last June and hit bottoms by the middle of March, 2024, following a hasty decision by President Ahmed Tinubu’s administration, to let it float freely on the market forces of demand and supply, in addition to removing petroleum subsidy, in disregard of the handicap of Nigeria’s import-dependence.
Without provisions to boost productions that satisfy domestic demands, or prime export capacities to balance import pressures on the local currency, a floating naira depreciated by 25 per cent in a single day in June, 2023, dropping to N1,950 per dollar in March, 2024, from about N750 per dollar earlier in May, 2023, while the price of petrol jumped overnight to 295 per cent, from N189 to N557. By December, 2023 overall inflation, according to official estimates, reached 28.92 per cent and food inflation shot beyond 33.33 per cent.
According to a World Bank report, whereas about 24 million Nigerians crossed the poverty line during the first half of 2023, in the twilight of the Buhari administration, situations got worse by the end of 2023, when accelerating inflations ushered-in by Tinubu’s hasty policies, pushed 63 per cent of Nigerians (about 133 million) into multi-dimensional poverty.
By the first quarter of 2024 hardships drove restive youths to near-uprising, which forced government into another haste – a concoction of palliatives – ironically, a form of subsidy, which it had earlier denounced as government wastefulness.
With the naira regaining its losses, it appears a panicky government has finally groped unto a solution. But if Mr President’s men are remorseful for the havoc done to Nigerians, they should be more sober this time in their computations to avoid distressing the country further.
The Federal Government has resorted to offloading dollar raised from sovereign bonds (in essence, loans), petroleum export proceeds and drawdowns from the external reserves, into the economy to reduce Foreign Exchange (FX) supply pressures, and to help it buy time in the hope of finding solutions to the wider unfavourable economic fundamentals bedevilling the economy.
On the dollar demand side, government has freed-up official restrictions that it believes created artificial scarcities that favour the black market. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has also cleared-off a backlog of FX obligations to assure investors, lifted the ban on sale of dollar to Bureau De Change Operators (BDCs), clamped down on currency speculators, closed down Binance, a crypto platform government accused of opaque dealings with money launderers, and borrowed dollar through short-term, sovereign bonds to ‘defend’ the naira.
Ever since, the CBN has offloaded dollar to BDCs at progressively reduced rates in the hope of prompting currency hoarders to cut losses and release supposed stockpiles. But in a clime where looted funds are desperately exchanged and exported, not much may be squeezed from hoarders, if surveillance is not stepped up. However, as at April 8, 2024, the CBN has offloaded a second tranche of $10,000 per BDC operator at N1,101 per dollar with a charge not to sell above 1.5 per cent margin. Many predict the CBN would offer the dollar below N1,000 in the coming weeks.
But for how long can the CBN go on with its bonanza to ‘defend the Naira’? And what has been the cost of that defence? While the impact of a strengthening naira is yet to reflect on commodity prices in Nigeria, the nation’s foreign reserve has dropped within 18 days by $0.95billion, down from $34.45billion on March 18, 2024, to N33.50billion on April 3, which represents a daily average depletion rate of $52.78 million. This is despite the $3billion loan from the AFREXIMBANK and petro-dollar revenues also thrown into the fray. To sustain its strengths, reports say the federal government plans to take stabilisation loans by June, 2024, speculated at a tune of $15billion, through the issuance of domestic bonds denominated in foreign currency. FG seeks the loans within the window of short-term, volatile Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) bonds which may disappoint the country in times of crises, as against Foreign Direct Investments which are more reliable. According to Bloomberg reports, FG has contacted investment banks, JP Morgan Chase & Co, Goldman Sachs and Citibank NA, for advice on Eurobonds, but Nigeria’s Debt Management Office denies Federal Executive Council’s approvals for such.
Certainly, a stronger currency is beneficial to an import-dependent nation like Nigeria, but without strengthening national productivity to generate surpluses for trade-balancing exports, the pursuit of merely high currency valuation becomes a vain strategy. While the naira strengthens, the reality of the adverse economic fundamentals that erode its worth remains unchanged, implying that its buoyancy rides merely on costly FX floods being pumped by the CBN. It is easy to guess the result should the CBN halt supply.
For years, Nigeria relied on its petroleum sector which at present provides about 78 per cent of FX earnings, but constitutes far less than 10 per cent of its real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), implying that to stabilise, Nigeria needs to grow its non-oil sector of over 90 per cent of GDP. Even the petroleum revenue is endangered by sabotage, illegal bunkering, dwindling investments and insecurity.
The FG may have taken the bet that sustaining the naira could buy it time from hard-pressed Nigerians, in the hope that a number of tangible local productions might kick-off. Notable among the expectations is the Dangote Refinery which, with its 650,000 barrels per day refinning capacity, is expected to satisfy local demands of petroleum products to ease the huge FX demand in that front, and may hopefully earn FX through exports. Already, Dangote’s recent release of 100 million liters of diesel crashed the price of the product from N1,700 to N1,350, with another batch of 100 million liters expected to crash prices further, while the company plans to supply petrol by May, but government-owned refineries which have drained so much resources remain dysfunctional. Again, the recent break through against reprocity flight barriers between the UK and Nigeria by Airpeace, reportedly crashed ticket prices to UK by 60 per cent.
FG may also see reliefs in the successful take-off in Aba, of 24-hour power supply by the Geometric Group and the recent commissioning of 700 Megawatt Zungeru hydro-electricity station, a tomato processing plant in Nassarawa, and a steel mill in Kaduna. However, agricultural, petroleum and manufacturing sectors remain at their lowest and beseiged by insecurity, while the finacial services sector appears to be strong but has incommensurate impact on industrialisation. If government does not encourage productivity in the real economy, its efforts in buoying the naira would be hopeless, while Nigeria falls deeper in debts. Already, as at December 31, 2023, Nigeria’s total debt stood at $106billion, while the 2024 budget of N28.7 trillion projects a deficit of N9.8 trillion to be debt-financed.
When public debt grows fast ahead of GDP growth rate, mounting debt service costs under-cut funds required for investment. That became the plight of Nigeria from Buhari’s era, when from 2016 to 2022 public debt grew by yearly average of 52.4 per cent, and GDP below 2 per cent. In that fateful 2022, debt service cost exceeded government revenue, which is why we are where we are.
The International Monetary Fund projects that Nigeria’s reserve would plummet to $24billion by end of 2024. Meanwhile, a nation’s FX reserve reflects the country’s balance of payments and its ability to settle international obligations. Severe declines in reserve may erode investor confidence and lead to downgrading of its credit ratings, which further worsens the nation’s borrowing costs.
Therefore the current approach towards buoying the Naira through loans cannot be any other thing, but a gamble.
By: Joseph Nwankwor
Opinion
Rivers Politics: Lere Olayinka’s Cocktail Of Lies
In a calculated attempt to tarnish the reputation of Governor Siminalayi Fubara, Lere Olayinka, the self-styled Senior Special Assistant on Public Communication and Social Media to FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike, stormed News Central TV with a cocktail of lies, half-truths and unfortunate distortions. This desperate smear campaign demands a bold response to expose the true mastermind behind the political turbulence rocking Rivers State. Olayinka harped on the current situation of the Rivers State House of Assembly, highlighting the presence of only three (3) active members. Yet, he conveniently glossed over the real story of Martin Amaewhule and his co-defectors who cowardly abandoned their constituencies and their mandates by defecting to the APC without due consultation. These former legislators, by law, automatically vacated their seats, but Olayinka lacks the courage to admit this truth.
When asked about Wike’s involvement in Rivers State’s political turmoil, Olayinka could not deny the undeniable. Wike is not only a major player in this crisis but also its architect. His meddlesome tendencies and attempts to control the state from Abuja have been met with stiff resistance from Rivers people who are fed-up with his overreach. Olayinka’s claim that Wike elevated Governor Fubara from “a mere cashier” to governor reeks of pettiness. It is an insult to Fubara’s track record of service and to the Rivers people who overwhelmingly voted for him. The truth is, Governor Fubara was instrumental to any success Wike claims during his time as governor, especially in financial prudence and project execution, Olayinka can challenge me to a debate if in doubt. Mr. Olayinka falsely accused Governor Fubara of disobeying President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
The irony, however, is glaring. The real defiance came from those who President Tinubu called his “newborn babies,” only to disown him days later. Aside the impeachment attempt, Wike’s ill-advised push for these individuals to defect to the APC is at the root of the political mess they currently face. Olayinka’s admission that Fubara is the governor and wields the “red biro” underscores one truth: Governor Siminalayi Fubara is in Charge. While his employer may attempt to pull the strings of discord, Rivers people have declared unequivocally that the era of external interference is over. Sir Fubara is taking bold steps to restore dignity and prioritise the state’s interests. Also, Olayinka’s attempt to draw parallels between Rivers State and Kogi State only highlights his lack of understanding of Rivers politics. Rivers people are not Kogi people.
They will not accept a situation where commissioners or key appointments are dictated from only one man, as Wike attempted to do. Rivers people have spoken, and their stance is non-negotiable. Olayinka’s laughable claim that Governor Fubara is dining with those who opposed his emergence shows a lack of political depth. Almost everyone standing with Wike today—including Magnus Abe and Chidi Lloyd—at one time opposed his own governorship bid. Politics evolves and alliances shift. Governor Fubara is focused on governance, not on petty vendettas. Assuming, without conceding, that Governor Fubara did not address Rivers people during the campaign, the blame lies squarely on Wike, who perhaps never allowed him to speak. He almost succeeded in extending this overbearing tendencies into the governance of the state, but Rivers people are saying “No” to this meddlesome interference.
The glaring contradictions in Olayinka’s rhetoric can tell you why Fayose failed woefully in Ekiti State despite all his noise. Just like his principal, Olayinka has mastered the art of bluster without substance. When pressed on what Wike wants from Governor Fubara that he is not getting, Olayinka could not provide an answer. The truth is simple: Wike desires absolute control, but Governor Fubara and Rivers people have drawn the line. Olayinka’s interview on News Central TV was nothing but a desperate attempt to deflect attention from Wike’s political blunders and meddlesome tendencies. The records are clear: Governor Fubara is focused on the interests of Rivers people, while Wike and his cronies remain trapped in a web of personal ambition. The good news is that Rivers people know the truth. Governor Fubara is acting decisively and Rivers State is moving forward under his leadership. No amount of propaganda or falsehoods can change this fact.
John Martins
Martins wrote in from Port Harcourt.
Opinion
Fubara @ 50: Golden Sparkles And Magic Bullet
Men and women of goodwill are celebrating remarkable milestones in the life of Rivers State Governor, Sir Siminalayi Fubara. He turned 50 on January 28, 2025. His unwavering dedication, focus on excellence, effective advocacy beyond a single-focus “magic bullet” to governance with integrated approach that recognises multiple interrelated drivers of governance change, truly inspire the people. Rivers State is the second largest economy in Nigeria. It is hub of oil and the gas industry, and remains a major contributor to the country’s wealth. It is over such strong, powerful and strategical state, Governor Fubara superintends. At 50 years, he is gold sparkles and in a season of exhilarating jubilee. In 2024, his administration hosted investment summits. Manifest results now show inflow of multiplicity of foreign investments. Strategic partnership festers and the growth of Rivers economy is sustained. Investors enjoy tax moratoriums and land title issuance.
Jollification drumbeats are intense. Fulsome sound. Overreached with symphonic echoes. Scintillated strumming. The strings. Stroke of dexterity and bellowing melody, all so enthralling. Whether in Rivers or elsewhere in Nigeria, you will wriggle waists, do joyful handclaps or leap with hope-filled heart. Feet will do the hopping. There is comforting peace. The glean. A bland. Emphatically, Rivers people bare their hearts of gratitude to God. He enthroned Governor Fubara at at an auspicious time. The people are better off today than ever. The brutish political crisis erupted like a thief at night but was hushed by a watchful watchman. Because it is contained, the people are happier. More 3,066 persons got empowered with N3.6 billion loan facility on a single-digit interest rate of 7.5per cent per annum. It was made possible by a partnership between Rivers government and Bank of Industry (BOI). It offers support to small businesses, drives economic growth, promotes job creation and wealth generation efforts. Ultimately, it is to improve the standard of living of the citizens.
Happier citizenry. Civil and public servants got statutory promotion with consequential salary paid after being stagnated on a grade level for over a decade. In December 2023 and 2024, Christmas bonuses of N100,000 apiece, was paid to each worker, a gesture also extended to retirees. Governor Fubara is a leader with a pure human and godly heart. He had not confronted political violence with violence. No shade of political witch-hunting. No arrest on trumped-up charges. No politically motivated assassinations witnessed. The most insulted by political opponents. His reliance on God is legendary in a wild field of conscienceless political maneuverings, spewing of contradictory lies, threaded thickets of threats, mounted conspiracies to truncate governance and levels of insistence to cause stampede that intend to force a surrendering of the will of the people. All, came to nought. They have become like the mountains before Zerubbabel melting into wax.
What is seen is not indentured servitude. Governor Fubara stands in the gates firmly, defusing violet plots against the mandate of Rivers people. Steadied governance, ensured protection of life and property in a peaceful State. There is messianic balm, sufficiently applied to offer a soothing to frightened hearts, and calmed troubled nerves. Of course, nobody with a decent grasp of the complexity and deep-rooted nature of the crisis will believe that it will be resolved so easily. But you will need to know this also. Governor Fubara was born on a Tuesday in Opobo Town and bears unique traits of people born on Tuesday. Of note is his persistence on chosen course, strives with conviction and wholeheartedly drives on until desirable success is achieved. He is solidly courageous, shares no tent with fear because he must take the risks required to reaching his goals, which is why he faces the challenges head-on.
He is calm though, but makes no mistake about his dogged fighting spirit, calculative and straightforward spirit that wins squarely, and fairly. Four critical priority areas are at focus; healthcare, education, agriculture and road infrastructure development. He must win too, in truly empowering the people to attain quality living. In improving public sector education, the investment is holistic, almost equal attention given to basic education, post-primary education and tertiary education. Personnel, not less than 1000 apiece, are employed into universal basic education and post-primary levels. Staff recruitment done at Ignatius Ajuru University of Education and at Captain Elechi Amadi Polytechnic. A new Rivers State College of Education is in the offing plus 3000 more teachers to be recruited to improve the teacher: learners’ ratio.
Modern learning infrastructure and essential instructional materials are distributed to nursery, primary, and junior secondary schools in the 23 local government areas, which included Teachers’ notebooks, smart-board pens, dusters and marker pens, writing pens, textbooks covering all subjects, Phonetics textbooks, varieties of storybooks, records and diaries for junior secondary schools, school attendance registers. The health sector has received historic investments. 25 general hospitals have capacity strengthened to provide regular, quality healthcare. More health facilities like four zonal hospitals in Bori, Ahoada, Degema, and Omoku towns in four local government areas being remodelled, expanded and upgraded. A modern psychiatric hospital is nearing completion and will be equipped to provide dedicated neuro-psychiatric services. Already, 1,000 personnel are employed by the Rivers State Health Management Board while another 1,000 are engaged by the Rivers State University Teaching Hospital (RSUTH). This will bridge manpower gap.
There is a comprehensive agriculture transformation support programme pursued with the N31 billion allocated in 2025 budget to achieve food security, enhance job creation and facilitate economic growth. Some legacy road projects included the 15.6 km Port Harcourt Ring road and 12.5km Trans-Kalabari Highway Road. These critical infrastructure consolidate development efforts. Truly, at 50, Governor Fubara will have moments for deep reflection and be genuinely propelled to express gratitude to God for divine benevolence. He stands between dreams and aspirations, some achieved, others yet pursued. What is more, in these 50 years, he has given it his all, and still eager to grasp opportunities to live to fullest while delivering more quality service to the state, country and humanity.
Tamunobarabi Ibulubo
Ibulubo is of the Rivers State Television (RSTV), Port Harcourt.
Opinion
Nigeria’s Electricity Sector: Need For Restructuring
In mid October, 2024, our national electricity grid suffered three collapses just within a week, throwing many states of Nigeria in total blackouts. Right from independence, Nigeria has always set agendas for attaining steady electricity, but ends up failing to achieve that noble objective. The perennial challenge of providing reliable electricity across Nigeria is however no puzzle beyond humans, yet the sector remains backward, notwithstanding series of reforms and public expenditures. But at the centre of the failures from all past reforms, is a common factor – the reluctance by government, whether deliberate or inadvertent, to extricate itself from the operational lines of the business. The presence of Nigerian government in any business process, especially where it monopolistically occupies vital operational linkage, has proven to create bottlenecks that stifle efficiencies, and defeat the overall objectives.
This was evident in the telecommunications sector, as it is in the petroleum and power sectors. Take for instance, the current policy framework that overshadowes electricity business across Nigeria, where in the name of privatisation, government deliberately butchered off, and separately sold vital organs of the national electricity industry, in an arrangement where the generating companies (GenCos) do not have licences to transmit and distribute generated power, and distribution companies (DisCos) have no licences to produce the sole commodity they sell, while the federal government through the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), monopolistically retains transmission trades between GenCos and DisCos.The insertion of TCN between the private businesses of power generation and distribution, destroys benefits derivable from privatising electricity productions in Nigeria.
With the GenCos and DisCos answerable to the separate managements while the TCN reports to the Federal Ministry of Power, Works and Housing, it is obvious that the unbreakable chain of commands needed for seamless business operations was designed for disarray. Besides, government also solely holds the stakes in gas supplies needed for much of Nigeria’s 16,384 MegaWatts installed capacity. Due to inadequacy of gas supplies, the GenCos produce about 8,415MW, out of which, due to TCN’s inefficiency, only about 4,000MW get to DisCos. However, among the three loosely bound entities in Nigeria’s unholy marriage of electricity production, the GenCos appear more upbeat at investing for increased capacity but are dragged by delivery challenges from the TCN on the one hand, and poor revenue returns from the DisCos, on the other.
The failure of TCN to deploy modern surveillance and field data acquisition technologies to maintain network reliability, has left its facilities prone to vandalism. It does not encourage GenCos who take the major production risks that they can not deal directly with consumers. In the prevailing situation in which DisCos, being closest to power consumers harvest the collective revenue, the opaque nature of that crucial assignment as currently being conducted, gives room for under-reporting.The electricity business like any other, should project transparent prospects of profits to inspire undertakings in investment risks, and it is only operational frameworks that assure investors of end-to-end process integrity that can encourage the deployment of total commitments. Discos’ obvious reluctance at metering, nor upgrading distribution facilities for efficiency, gives no incentives to GenCos to increase investments in power generation.
It does not also help that TCN’s Market Operations (MO) department passes revenue trickles from DisCos, unto GenCos without enforcing collection transparency on the former. Most of Nigeria’s electricity transmission network infrastructure were installed more than 50 years ago. Since inheriting the transmission assets in the 2005 privatisation, and further restructuring in 2013, TCN’s Transmission Service Provider (TSP) department which is responsible for grid construction and maintenance has not done much to expand network capacity in readiness for increased generation. Neither has its System Operations (SO) department, responsible for stabilising operations, upgraded its frequency management and switching capabilities, but still relies on manual switching instead of investing in Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems that respond swiftly to changing grid frequencies.
It was not surprising therefore that a usual process fluctuation that came from uploading increased power generation into the national grid had overwhelmed SO’s manual switching capability, leading to the grid collapse of October, although Minster of Power alluded to the fact that the inability of TCN’s aged infrastructure to absorb extra power caused explosions at Jebba sub-station, leading to instabilities that collapsed the grid. Which ever be the case, the buck stops at the TCN, and by extension at government. One may then question the benefits derivable from contracts signed by the Buhari administration with Siemens of Germany in 2019. System automation is undeniably the core expertise of Siemens, and the deployment of the company’s switches would have handled grid fluctuations to prevent any collapse. Despite the huge budget allocations that go into the ministry of power, it is obvious that government processes – encumbered by bureaucracy, politics, paucity of funds and lack of business savvy – is entangling TCN’s abilities at keeping pace with its private partners.
So why should government create such a clog in the wheels of progress? Moreso, it has never been known that government declared financial profits from its years of investments in the power sector, nor are the social benefits apparent. Rather than hold unto an asset that continuously drains scarce finances at no benefits, while creating bottlenecks to processes, government should completely hands-off the industry, focus on its regulatory roles, and draw tax accruals. According to estimates by the World Bank, the failure of reliable power supplies in Nigeria costs yearly losses of $29 billion to companies who had to produce their own power, and is a major reason most companies close down in the country, or have migrated elsewhere, despite our human resource potentials and Nigeria being a huge market. The current Nigeria Electricity Supply Industry (NESI) structure, in which government-owned TCN is sandwiched between disunited GenCos and DisCos, is causing conflict of interests, unsustainable and ensures a tie of stagnation.
The electricity production framework should be restructured, even if it means partitioning the national grid, into a form that gives power companies combined and seamless abilities to generate, transmit and distribute power directly to their consumers, as being experimented by the Geometric Group in Aba.
Joseph Nwankwor
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