Oil & Energy
The Future May Not Be As Electric As We Think
Virtually every single forecast about the future of transport focuses on its electrification – on the idea that Electric Vehicles will take over roads, displacing the internal combustion engine Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) and making it history.
Not everyone agrees, however, and that includes Renault, China’s Geely and, as of last month, Saudi Aramco. The three are investing in a company that develops powertrain technology for internal combustion engine vehicles. The future may not be as electric as we may expect.
Horse Powertrain came into existence at the end of May as a 50:50 joint venture between Renault and Geely. At the time, Renault’s Chief Executive said the company would aim to become a leader in “ultra-low emission internal combustion engines and high economy hybrid technologies”.
Decarbonisation, then, remains the top priority. Yet Renault and Geely are opting for an alternative way to achieve it, through fuel efficiency and other tech advancements in internal combustion rather than through total electrification.
It is no wonder Aramco is joining the party, especially in light of the recent performance of its EV darling, Lucid Motors.
Lucid has seen its share price plummet from over $50 apiece to less than $9 in three years and has missed its own delivery target for the first half of this year even though it boasted record deliveries of 2,394 cars.
The Saudi oil giant likes to spread its eggs across several baskets, and it looks like the ICE basket is still quite popular. People are still buying a lot more internal combustion engine cars than electric vehicles.
A lot of EV drivers want to go back to their internal combustion engine car. Things are not looking good for the electrification of transport, with the normal glitches of new technology still being sorted out. However, they are looking as robust as ever for internal combustion.
“It will be incredibly expensive for the world to completely stamp out, or do without internal combustion engines”, Yasser Mufti, Executive Vice-President at Saudi Aramco, who was in charge of the Horse Powertrain deal, told the Financial Times.
“If you look at affordability and a lot of other factors, I do think they will be around for a very, very long time”, he stated.
Affordability is indeed one of the factors that make drivers loyal to the ICE technology. For all the efforts EV makers have been putting into lowering the price of their electric vehicles, and for all the government support of the technology, EVs remain costlier than comparable internal combustion engine vehicles.
Of course, affordability is only part of the car equation. Another is fueling or charging time and on this, the ICE car once again beats the EV.
For all the talk about how convenient it was to charge your EV overnight in the comfort of your own garage, it has been dawning on forecasting EV bulls that globally, only a minority of drivers have a garage to charge an EV in, while most would need to rely on public chargers.
Also, only a minority of drivers would be willing to spend hours charging their car overnight or not.
Perhaps the best testimonial to the enduring power of the internal combustion engine were the latest car sales figures from China.
The world’s biggest market, China, has been breaking records in EV sales. This seems to have created a perception that half of all cars in China are electric. In fact, the reality is quite different.
Xinhua reported earlier this week that the total number of cars on Chinese roads had reached 440 million at the end of June. Of these, the data showed, new energy vehicles had a share of 24.72 million. Of these, 18.13 million were plug-in electric vehicles — what we commonly call EVs, and the rest were hybrids.
In percentage terms, then, EVs represent barely a 4.1% of the Chinese market. In other words, even in the world’s biggest EV market, with billions spent on charging infrastructure and making EVs dirt cheap, most drivers still prefer internal combustion vehicles.
“We believe that as far out as 2035, 2040 and even beyond 2040 we still see a significant number of ICE vehicles”, Matias Giannini, Chief Executive of Horse Powertrain, told the FT.
“More than half for sure, and up to 60 per cent of the population will still have some sort of an engine, whether it is pure ICE, a full hybrid or a plug-in hybrid”, he added.
The internal combustion engine has survived so long and remained the overwhelmingly dominant transportation technology for one simple reason: it has been superior to alternatives and its benefits have outweighed the costs consistently.
It is at the cost-benefit analysis state that the EV revolution tripped and fell — because it seems that no one bothered to do that analysis.
So, the market made it for them, with the EV surge celebrated loudly last year slowing down before the year was even over. Horse Powertrain may yet acquire new shareholders.
Slav writes for Oilprice.com.
By: Irina Slav
The Nigerian Navy Units under the auspices of Operation Delta Sanity says it has recorded significant successes against crude oil theft and illegal refining sites in the Niger Delta.
The Navy, in an updated operations, said the successes were recorded between Thursday August 29 and Monday September 2, 2024.
According to the information, on 29th August, seven large cotonou and two fibre boats operated by heavily armed oil thieves loading crude oil from an illegal loading point around Botokiri axis of Nembe Local Government Area of Bayelsa State were seized.
Also, on 31st August, six suspected crude oil thieves with 109 sacks of illegally refined petroleum products, four fibre boats and two wooden boats were arrested and seized along Ogboinbiri-Kasama-Azama-Isoni of Bayelsa State.
Again, on 1st September, two wooden boats and 328 sacks of illegally refined automated Gas Oil were seized at Otuogori community’s river bank in Yenagoa, Bayelsa State.
Additionally, on 2nd September, 35 sacks of illegally refined Automotive Gas Oil in a wooden boat were seized at Gbaraun area of Southern Ijaw Local Government Area of Bayelsa State.
These successes indicate the effectiveness of Operation Delta Sanity, and the resolve of the Nigerian Navy to sustain current efforts to rid Nigeria’s maritime environment of the menace of crude oil theft and enhance crude oil production for the overall growth of the economy.
The Eko Electricity Distribution Company Plc. has clarified that the Ministries, Departments, and Agencies of the Federal Government, including the military, owed the power distribution company N42billion as the cost of electricity consumed and not N144billion.
The Bureau of Public Enterprise(BPE), disclosed this in a Statement signed by the Head, Public Communications, Amina Othman, at the Weekend.
According to the Statement, the Disco affirmed that its total outstanding debt was N144billion, of which the MDAs and the military owe N42billion.
“The Eko Electricity Distribution Company Plc has clarified that contrary to earlier reports, the aggregate outstanding debt owed by consumers is N144billion, out of which, ministries, departments, and agencies including the military owe N42billion”, Othman stated.
The Statement said this was against prior reports that the MDAs, including the army, police, and other government agencies, were owing N144billion and had refused to pay.
The Disco said, “the clarification became necessary for proper reportage on the matter and to put the records straight”, it stated.
Recall that during a recent oversight visit by members of the House of Representatives Committee on Privatisation and Commercialisation, led by its Chairman, Ibrahim, the Acting Managing Director of the EKEDC, Mrs. Rekhiat Momoh, among other things, informed the members about the legacy debts owed the company by MDAs.
The committee had reported the acting MD as stating that the company was owed N144billion by MDAs within its operational area, saying she mentioned that the military, police, and various state government agencies failed to settle their debts, creating financial difficulties for the distribution company.
Energy infrastructure, a crucial part of global oil and gas supply and the energy transition, are set to get a boost after a heavy lifting equipment provider unveiled the world’s strongest crane-equipment capable of lifting 6,000 tons, or 15 fully loaded Boeing 747 aircraft.
Dutch heavy lifting and transport services company Mammoet has launched a new type of crane, the SK6,000, which, the firm said, could be used for modules to be built faster and also “bigger than ever before”.
As oil and gas continue to be a key part of the world’s energy system—and likely will continue for decades to come—and as renewable energy developers aim for bigger wind turbines, the support equipment for installing oil and gas platforms, offshore wind equipment, and even nuclear power stations is becoming bigger.
Bigger cranes such Mammoet’s SK6,000 could remove some of the limitations of engineering and construction firms. These firms are generally limited by how much weight can be lifted when installed on a platform or turbine.
Cranes that can carry 5,000 tons and more can shorten the time of a project being erected on a site, onshore or offshore, Mammoet says.
“Limitations on lifting capacity force engineers to fabricate smaller modules than would be optimal; tying up site space and increasing the complexity and duration of projects,” the company notes.
“This limitation can also narrow the execution choices available during each project’s planning stage and the percentage of each project that can be executed locally.”
These days, energy companies and their contractors seek faster deployment of energy infrastructure, be it wind turbines or floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels and platforms for oil and gas production.
“There are so many supply chain constraints at the moment that need to be de-bottlenecked,” Gavin Kerr, Mammoet’s director of global services, told Bloomberg, commenting on the new crane.
“The bigger everything gets, you need bigger cranes.”
Moreover, the SK6,000 is containerised and can be assembled quickly on-site. This feature allows it to deliver heavy lift capability wherever it is needed, giving contractors greater flexibility in where and how energy projects are completed” Mammoet said.
“With the innovation of the SK6,000 crane, our customers can think bigger than ever before; pushing modules beyond the 4,000t and even 5,000t barriers. Its low ground bearing capacity also means the crane can be used all over the world”, said Mammoet’s Sales Director Giovanni Alders.
“With its long outreach, small minimum footprint and relatively small site impact, the SK6,000 greatly reduces the topside integration time.
“Needless to say, with larger building blocks you spend less time connecting and testing, and more time producing” Alders added
Energy companies do need faster permit-to-production times in both oil and gas and renewable energy to provide the conventional and green energy sources the world will need.
Wind turbine technology is evolving and making the hub height increasingly taller. According to the Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy at the U.S. Department of Energy, the hub height for utility-scale land-based wind turbines has surged by 83per cent since 1998–1999, to about 103.4 meters (339 feet) in 2023. That’s taller than the statue of Liberty.
The average hub height for offshore wind turbines in the United States is projected to grow even taller from 100 meters (330 feet) in 2016 to about 150 meters (500 feet), or about the height of the Washington Monument, in 2035, DOE said.
In the oil and gas industry, new resource development is needed as demand for LNG grows and legacy oilfields mature and output declines.
If contractors can bring energy projects on stream faster, both oil and gas supply and the energy transition will benefit.
By: Charles Kennedy