Oil & Energy

The Future May Not Be As Electric As We Think

Published

2 years ago

July 15, 2024

Virtually every single forecast about the future of transport focuses on its electrification – on the idea that Electric Vehicles will take over roads, displacing the internal combustion engine Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) and making it history.
Not everyone agrees, however, and that includes Renault, China’s Geely and, as of last month, Saudi Aramco. The three are investing in a company that develops powertrain technology for internal combustion engine vehicles. The future may not be as electric as we may expect.
Horse Powertrain came into existence at the end of May as a 50:50 joint venture between Renault and Geely. At the time, Renault’s Chief Executive said the company would aim to become a leader in “ultra-low emission internal combustion engines and high economy hybrid technologies”.
Decarbonisation, then, remains the top priority. Yet Renault and Geely are opting for an alternative way to achieve it, through fuel efficiency and other tech advancements in internal combustion rather than through total electrification.
It is no wonder Aramco is joining the party, especially in light of the recent performance of its EV darling, Lucid Motors.
Lucid has seen its share price plummet from over $50 apiece to less than $9 in three years and has missed its own delivery target for the first half of this year even though it boasted record deliveries of 2,394 cars.
The Saudi oil giant likes to spread its eggs across several baskets, and it looks like the ICE basket is still quite popular. People are still buying a lot more internal combustion engine cars than electric vehicles.
A lot of EV drivers want to go back to their internal combustion engine car. Things are not looking good for the electrification of transport, with the normal glitches of new technology still being sorted out. However, they are looking as robust as ever for internal combustion.
“It will be incredibly expensive for the world to completely stamp out, or do without internal combustion engines”, Yasser Mufti, Executive Vice-President at Saudi Aramco, who was in charge of the Horse Powertrain deal, told the Financial Times.
“If you look at affordability and a lot of other factors, I do think they will be around for a very, very long time”, he stated.
Affordability is indeed one of the factors that make drivers loyal to the ICE technology. For all the efforts EV makers have been putting into lowering the price of their electric vehicles, and for all the government support of the technology, EVs remain costlier than comparable internal combustion engine vehicles.
Of course, affordability is only part of the car equation. Another is fueling or charging time and on this, the ICE car once again beats the EV.
For all the talk about how convenient it was to charge your EV overnight in the comfort of your own garage, it has been dawning on forecasting EV bulls that globally, only a minority of drivers have a garage to charge an EV in, while most would need to rely on public chargers.
Also, only a minority of drivers would be willing to spend hours charging their car overnight or not.
Perhaps the best testimonial to the enduring power of the internal combustion engine were the latest car sales figures from China.
The world’s biggest market, China, has been breaking records in EV sales. This seems to have created a perception that half of all cars in China are electric. In fact, the reality is quite different.
Xinhua reported earlier this week that the total number of cars on Chinese roads had reached 440 million at the end of June. Of these, the data showed, new energy vehicles had a share of 24.72 million. Of these, 18.13 million were plug-in electric vehicles — what we commonly call EVs, and the rest were hybrids.
In percentage terms, then, EVs represent barely a 4.1% of the Chinese market. In other words, even in the world’s biggest EV market, with billions spent on charging infrastructure and making EVs dirt cheap, most drivers still prefer internal combustion vehicles.
“We believe that as far out as 2035, 2040 and even beyond 2040 we still see a significant number of ICE vehicles”, Matias Giannini, Chief Executive of Horse Powertrain, told the FT.
“More than half for sure, and up to 60 per cent of the population will still have some sort of an engine, whether it is pure ICE, a full hybrid or a plug-in hybrid”, he added.
The internal combustion engine has survived so long and remained the overwhelmingly dominant transportation technology for one simple reason: it has been superior to alternatives and its benefits have outweighed the costs consistently.
It is at the cost-benefit analysis state that the EV revolution tripped and fell — because it seems that no one bothered to do that analysis.
So, the market made it for them, with the EV surge celebrated loudly last year slowing down before the year was even over. Horse Powertrain may yet acquire new shareholders.
Slav writes for Oilprice.com.

By: Irina Slav

Oil & Energy

Abia Secures $145m Investment Commitment To Establish Solar Manufacturing Plant

Published

1 day ago

July 20, 2026

The Tide

Abia State Governor Alex Otti has welcomed a proposed $145 million investment to establish a solar manufacturing plant in Isiala Ngwa South Local Government Area, describing it as a major boost to the state’s industrial and renewable energy ambitions.

The development was disclosed in a statement issued last week by the Chief Press Secretary to the Governor, Ukoha Njoku Ukoha, after Otti received the investors, led by their Team Leader, Dr. Oko Jaja, at the Government House in Umuahia.

During the meeting held on July 16, 2026, Otti said he was encouraged that the proposed project had reached the Final Investment Decision (FID) stage, with the investors committing up to $145 million to establish the solar manufacturing facility in the state.

What they are saying

Governor Otti welcomed the investors’ commitment, saying the project had progressed to the stage where they were ready to invest up to $145 million in Abia.

“I’m glad that at least you have reached the final investment decision where you are investing up to $145 million.”, he said.

He also assured the investors of the state’s continued support, noting that the government had already provided the land required for the project and remained willing to address any additional requirements needed to facilitate the investment.

“We had to do everything that was required to make the land available. And we would like to assure you that if there is any other thing that you need for this investment, do not hesitate to let us know”, the Governor said.

Speaking on behalf of the investors, Dr. Oko Jaja said the project, being developed with Chinese partners, had advanced significantly and that the first tranche of funding is expected to be released by September 2026, paving the way for implementation.

Also speaking, the Chief Executive Officer of MD NWAKANMA NIGERIA Limited, Dennis Madu Nwakamma, said construction of the plant is expected to commence by the end of September under a public-private partnership with the Abia State Government. He added that the project will manufacture solar panels and related products while creating jobs and providing technical training for young people in the state.

The proposed investment adds to Abia’s growing push into the renewable energy sector. The state is among the few in Nigeria with a regulated electricity market and is home to Geometric Power, whose integrated power system supplies electricity to Aba and surrounding communities.

The development also follows Governor Otti’s recent commissioning of an upgraded 5MVA power station at Abia State University, which doubled the facility’s capacity from 2.5MVA to improve electricity supply within the institution.

Earlier, in February 2024, he commissioned the 188MW Geometric Power Plant, a landmark project aimed at expanding power generation and improving electricity access in the state.

The proposed solar manufacturing facility is the latest in a series of investment projects announced for Abia as the state seeks to attract private capital into manufacturing and infrastructure.

In March, Governor Otti commissioned a $35 million industrial facility in Aba, part of a planned $100 million investment expected to deepen the city’s manufacturing base and attract additional private sector activity.

The state government has also completed the acquisition of Afro Beverages from the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON) after paying N500 million to facilitate the revival of the company.

Separately, the Federal Government and the African Development Bank have urged the Abia State Government to resolve administrative delays affecting the commencement of the $263.8 million Abia State Integrated Infrastructural Development (ABSIID) project, which is expected to strengthen infrastructure and support economic growth across the state.

Oil & Energy

FG Urges Against Operators’ Actions That Could Distabilise Market

Published

1 day ago

July 20, 2026

The Tide

The Minister of Power, Chief Joseph Tegbe, has called on operators in the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI) to avoid actions that could affect the decentralised electricity market.

The minister made the call at the workshop on Legal, Policy and Regulatory Harmonisation between federal and state institutions on the Decentralisation of the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI), in Abuja.

Tegbe said the Federal Government retains an important leadership role, while state governments now have expanded responsibilities; the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC)continues to regulate areas within its jurisdiction; and state regulators are emerging to supervise their respective markets.

He further stated that transmission remains a national asset; distribution companies continue to serve millions of customers; generation companies continue to supply energy into the grid; private investors provide capital; development partners provide technical support; while consumers remain at the heart of every decision.

Nothing that none of these institutions exists in isolation, he said: “Our success is interconnected. This is why collaboration must become the defining principle of our decentralised electricity market. We must ensure collaboration rather than competition between institutions. We must build alignment instead of regulatory conflict. We must practice mutual respect instead of jurisdictional rivalry.”

He said the Electricity Act did not establish parallel electricity industries, but complementary electricity markets, operating within one national framework.

“Our objective must therefore be regulatory coherence. Investors should not encounter conflicting rules. Developers should not navigate contradictory approval processes. Consumers should not become casualties of institutional uncertainty. Market participants should enjoy clarity, predictability and confidence wherever they choose to invest,” he stated.

Oil & Energy

Fuel Imports Surged By 207% In June — NMDPRA report

Published

1 day ago

July 20, 2026

The Tide

Nigeria’s petrol importation surged by 207 per cent in June 2026, even as domestic Premium Motor Spirit supply fell by 22 per cent, according to the latest data released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority.

The development marked a sharp reversal from the pattern recorded at the beginning of the year when domestic refining was supplying the bulk of the country’s petrol requirements.

The NMDPRA’s June 2026 Fact Sheet, obtained by our correspondent on Saturday, showed that average daily PMS imports rose from 5.9 million litres in May to 18.1 million litres in June.

The 12.2 million-litre daily increase represented a 206.8 per cent month-on-month rise.

In contrast, domestic PMS receipts fell from 41.5 million litres per day in May to 32.5 million litres per day in June, representing a decline of 9 million litres or 21.7 per cent.

Despite the sharp drop in domestic supply, total PMS receipts rose from 47.4 million litres per day in May to 50.6 million litres per day in June. This represented an increase of 3.2 million litres per day or 6.8 per cent.

The report read, “Total PMS receipts rose by seven per cent from 47.4 million litres per day in May to 50.6 million litres in June, driven by a 207 per cent surge in imports to 18.1 million litres, even as domestic supply fell by 22 per cent to 32.5 million litres per day.

“Domestic daily receipts include DPRP gantry and all coastal evacuation receipts. Consumption data is based on volumes trucked out from all facilities into the domestic market.”

The figures suggest that the increase in imports more than compensated for the decline in domestic supply during the month.

The development is significant because Nigeria entered 2026 with a much stronger domestic supply position. In January, domestic PMS supply was reported at 40.1 million litres per day, accounting for about 61.8 per cent of the country’s petrol supply, while imports averaged 24.8 million litres per day.

However, imports fell sharply to 3.0 million litres per day in February before rising to 5.9 million litres per day in March. The country’s dependence on imports then remained relatively low through the following months before the sharp increase recorded in June.

Compared with January, June’s domestic PMS receipts of 32.5 million litres per day were 7.6 million litres, or 19 per cent, lower than the 40.1 million litres recorded at the beginning of the year.

Conversely, June’s import volume of 18.1 million litres per day was 6.7 million litres, or 27 per cent, below January’s 24.8 million litres per day.

However, the composition of supply changed considerably. While domestic supply accounted for the larger share of the market in January, the June figures showed a much greater reliance on imports to supplement local production.

The June data also showed that the country’s crude oil receipts by domestic refineries improved during the month.

Crude oil receipt by domestic refineries rose from 0.578 million barrels per day in 0.632 million barrelsMay to per day in June, an increase of 0.054 million barrels per day, or 9.3 per cent.

The NMDPRA rounded the increase to 10 per cent in its fact sheet.

The rise in crude receipts occurred at a time when domestic PMS supply decreased, indicating that higher crude deliveries alone did not immediately translate into higher petrol receipts in the domestic market.

The figures could also reflect changes in refinery operations, product yields, maintenance activities, evacuation arrangements and the balance between domestic production and imported products.

The June fact sheet further showed that average daily PMS consumption increased marginally from 46.3 million litres in May to 47.4 million litres in June.

The 1.1 million-litre increase represented a 2.4 per cent rise.

The increase in consumption, however, was far smaller than the 207 per cent jump in petrol imports.

As a result, the country’s petrol stock position improved during the month. PMS stock sufficiency rose from 16.2 days in May to 19.7 days in June.

This represented an increase of 3.5 days, or 21.6 per cent.

The improvement means that the country entered July with almost 20 days of petrol stock sufficiency, despite the increased reliance on imports.

The increase in petrol stocks is significant against the background of the supply disruptions and price volatility that have characterised the downstream petroleum market since the removal of petrol subsidy.

At the beginning of 2026, the NMDPRA reported that PMS stock sufficiency had risen to 33 days in January, compared with 29.2 days in December 2025. However, the stock position subsequently declined before recovering to 19.7 days in June.

The June data also showed a dramatic increase in imported Liquefied Petroleum Gas, popularly known as cooking gas.

Total LPG receipts rose from 4.1 kilotonnes per day in May to 5.1KT per day in June, representing a 24.4 per cent increase.

Domestic LPG receipts, however, fell from 4.0KT per day to 3.6KT per day, a decline of 0.4KT per day or 10 per cent.

Imports rose from 0.1KT per day in May to 1.5KT per day in June.

That represented an increase of 1.4KT per day, or 1,400 per cent.

The sharp increase in LPG imports helped push total receipts higher, even as domestic supply declined.

The figures indicate that LPG supply exceeded consumption during the month, potentially supporting inventory replenishment.

The supply of Automotive Gas Oil, commonly known as diesel, declined by 14 per cent in June.

AGO receipts fell from 18.8 million litres per day in May to 16.2 million litres per day in June, a decline of 2.6 million litres or 13.8 per cent.

The decline was entirely recorded in domestic receipts as the country recorded no AGO imports in either May or June.

The NMDPRA data showed that diesel consumption remained unchanged at 16 million litres per day in both months.

Consequently, June’s total AGO receipts of 16.2 million litres per day were only marginally above consumption.

Despite the lower supply, AGO stock sufficiency improved from 31 days in May to 37.1 days in June.

That represented an increase of 6.1 days or 19.7 per cent.

The rise in stock sufficiency, despite lower daily receipts, suggests that existing inventories continued to provide a substantial buffer for the diesel market.

The supply of Aviation Turbine Kerosene also fell during the month.

ATK receipts declined from 3.6 million litres per day in May to 2.5 million litres per day in June.

The 1.1 million-litre decline represented a fall of 30.6 per cent.

ATK consumption also fell from 3.1 million litres per day to 2.9 million litres per day, representing a 6.5 per cent decline.

The drop in consumption was, however, significantly smaller than the decline in receipts.

Domestic gas supply rose marginally during the period under review.

The NMDPRA reported that domestic gas supply increased from 4.984 billion standard cubic feet per day in May to 5.116Bscf/d in June.

The increase of 0.132Bscf/d represented a 2.65 per cent rise.

The authority said its domestic gas supply figure includes volumes supplied to the Nigeria LNG Limited.

The modest improvement came as the Federal Government and industry stakeholders continued to focus on increasing gas availability for power generation, industrial production and other domestic uses.

The January-to-June 2026 trend points to a petroleum market that has remained heavily influenced by the changing balance between domestic refining and imports.

Nigeria began the year with domestic PMS supply accounting for the majority of total supply. January’s 40.1 million litres per day from domestic sources compared with 24.8 million litres per day from imports.

By June, however, domestic supply had fallen to 32.5 million litres per day, while imports stood at 18.1 million litres per day.

Although the absolute volume of imports in June remained lower than January’s figure, the sharp increase from the May level showed how quickly the market could turn to imported products when domestic supply weakened.

The trend also highlights the continuing importance of domestic refining capacity to Nigeria’s fuel security.

In May, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery supplied an average of 41.5 million litres of petrol daily, according to reports based on the NMDPRA’s monthly data. The figure was significantly higher than the 40.1 million litres per day recorded in January. However, June’s domestic PMS receipt fell to 32.5 million litres per day.

The development comes amid the gradual transformation of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, with the Dangote refinery increasingly supplying the domestic market while imports continue to act as a balancing source.

The figures also demonstrate that increased refinery crude supply does not automatically guarantee a corresponding increase in domestic petrol receipts. In June, crude receipts rose by about 9.3 per cent, while domestic PMS receipts fell by 21.7 per cent.

For consumers, the most immediate implication is that the country’s petrol supply system remains dependent on a combination of local refining and imports.

The June data therefore presents a mixed picture: domestic refining received more crude, total petrol supply increased and stock levels improved, but local PMS receipts fell sharply while imports surged.

In the wider downstream sector, diesel supply remained entirely domestic, LPG imports increased dramatically to supplement weaker local receipts, aviation fuel supply declined and gas availability recorded modest growth.

The data underscores the continuing transition of Nigeria’s petroleum market from an import-dependent system to a mixed supply structure in which domestic refineries are expected to provide the bulk of demand while imports fill supply gaps.