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Economist Group Faults Crude Supply Delay To Dangote  … Says Its Risky To Nigeria’s Economy’

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The Economist Intelligence Unit (EiU), the research and analysis division of the Economist Group, has warned that further delays in crude oil feedstock to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals could jeopardise Nigeria’s economic recovery, putting more pressure on the Naira, the local currency.
It noted that the Dangote Refinery, which began production in January, has encountered setbacks in petrol production due to a shortage of crude oil feedstock.
The $20 billion facility, it stated, has successfully exported various products, including fuel oil, naphtha, nitrogen fertilisers, gasoil, jet fuel, and diesel, but has been unable to ramp up petrol production due to challenges in sourcing adequate crude oil.
The delays are expected to have significant economic repercussions for Nigeria, and likely to worsen the already strained relationship between public finances and the management of the Naira.
Acknowledging that the government had previously scrapped the official petrol subsidy in June 2023, the report said the practice of unofficially subsidizing petrol continues, with substantial implications for the national budget.
It further noted that this has led to increased currency losses, contributing to a widening budget deficit that has become increasingly difficult to manage and could force the Central Bank of Nigeria to revert to stronger management of the currency.
“As the Federal Government unofficially subsidises petrol (the official subsidy was scrapped in June 2023), currency losses feed into a widening budget deficit that is becoming more challenging to finance.
“This provides extra incentive for the central bank to revert to stronger management of the currency, as we already expect, but the degree of market intervention could become heavier.
“Meanwhile, ongoing fuel imports would reduce the current-account surplus from the 1.9% of GDP that we currently project for 2025, potentially leading to lower foreign reserves and the return to a more rigid and unstable foreign-exchange system”, it said.
The delay in securing a reliable pipeline of affordable crude oil feedstock was attributed to low crude production due to oil theft and underinvestment, and using crude oil to repay outstanding loans.
“The refinery has encountered a range of problems, both practical and political in nature. The most publicly discussed issue is how the refinery can secure a reliable pipeline of crude oil feedstock at affordable prices.
“NNPC, the state oil firm, has not been able to provide enough volume. The government has promised to deliver 450,000 b/d of oil to the refinery through NNPC in a pilot scheme, sold in Naira, but the state oil company is not in a position to make this a reliable arrangement.
“Crude production in Nigeria is stubbornly low, as a result of oil theft and underinvestment. Output was 1.31m b/d in July, against an OPEC+ target of 1.38m b/d.
“NNPC receives a varying minority share of this and, moreover, a sizable quantity (about 90,000 b/d) is being committed as loan collateral”, it stated further.
Accordingly, it said, the situation has been worsened by International Oil Companies (IOCs) operating in Nigeria, which demand a premium of $3-$4 per barrel over the prices they receive elsewhere.
It noted that regulators are hesitant to enforce the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO)—which requires IOCs to sell crude to local refineries—out of concern that such enforcement might lead to divestment.
The report emphasised that producing fuel locally would significantly benefit Nigeria’s fiscal position and currency, given that petroleum products account for 15% to 20% of the country’s goods import bill.
The Dangote refinery, hailed as a transformative development, is expected to resolve the paradox of Nigeria being a major crude oil producer yet still dependent on fuel imports.
With a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (b/d), the refinery is expected to potentially eliminate the need for fuel imports and shield local fuel prices from exchange-rate fluctuations.
“The Dangote fuel refinery is potentially transformational for Nigeria, which has always been an oil exporter and fuel importer.
“This fact is often regarded as a failure and an embarrassment by politicians, businesses and the media alike, but the new refinery has the ability to change this”, it stated.
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Debt Servicing Hindering Nigeria’s Dev – IMF

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has opened up on Nigeria’s socio/economic development issues, saying that the country allocates the majority of its revenue to debt servicing, leaving limited funds for critical development projects.
Disclosing this while speaking during the Fiscal Monitor press briefing at the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington DC, David Furceri, Division Chief of the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, emphasised the need for Nigeria to adopt more effective revenue mobilisation strategies to ease this financial burden.
Furceri noted that Nigeria’s debt service-to-revenue ratio stands at around 60 per cent, significantly constraining the government’s ability to invest in social and economic programmes.
Although the debt service-to-GDP ratio has declined from nearly 100 per cent to 60 per cent, he stressed that the country must further reduce the share of its revenue allocated to debt repayments by focusing on broadening its tax base.
He said, “There is a need to grow the revenue-to-GDP ratio.  For a country Like Nigeria, the Debt Service-to-Revenue is about 60 per cent.  What that means is that a larger part of the revenue of the country goes into debt servicing.
“What we recommend for countries like Nigeria, if they can improve their revenue mobilisation, they will be able to reduce the portion of the revenue that goes into debt servicing.
“It is important to broaden the tax base in order to have more revenue and especially in Nigeria to put in place a system and mechanism that is transparent and efficient to assist the government in collecting more revenue”.
He called for the implementation of a transparent and efficient tax collection system, urging the government to improve its fiscal operations to generate more income.
Also, the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor Report released last Thursday highlighted projections that Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio, currently at 50.7 per cent, is expected to drop to 49.6 per cent by 2025.
It noted that the country’s public debt includes overdrafts from the Central Bank of Nigeria and liabilities from the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria.
“The overdrafts and government deposits at the Central Bank of Nigeria almost cancel each other out, and the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria debt is roughly halved”, the report noted.

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SON To Simplify SMEs Certification Process

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The Standards Organisation of Nigeria (SON) has revealed plans to support Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) across the country by simplifying access to certification and standards, in line with global best practices.
According to the agency, its initiative at the forefront of this drive is the Mandatory Conformity Assessment Programme, designed to assist local manufacturers in maintaining quality and safety standards, a key requirement for gaining consumer trust and penetrating international markets.
Acting Regional Director for SON in Lagos, Theresa Ojomo, disclosed this during the annual Walk for Standards event held in Lagos to mark World Standards Day.
She stated SON’s role in facilitating the growth of small businesses through programmes tailored to their needs.
“We have brought it down to the very small micro-organisations, encouraging them that they can imbibe standards”, she said.
She noted that businesses operating with minimal infrastructure could ensure quality in their production processes with SON’s support.
Ojomo explained that SON had made the process of adhering to standards more affordable and less burdensome for SMEs.
“We have brought in schemes that are very low in the economy because they always complained that it’s costly to have standards and quality.
“SON conducts only one inspection per year for micro-enterprises to ease the compliance process. The government and SON are ensuring that as small as the unit is, you can imbibe standards”, she remarked.
The Head of Codex, Nutrition and Tobacco Monitoring at SON, Yunusa Mohammed, reiterated that the organisation was committed to ensuring that consumers get value for their money by enforcing quality and safety standards.
“The ultimate aim for developing standards is to ensure quality and safety. Without testing the product to the requirements of the product standard, there is no way you can give that assurance”, he said.
Mohammed noted that SON had invested in state-of-the-art laboratories across the country to further support SMEs by offering testing services that help small businesses certify their products for both local and international markets.

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Group Partners Police Against Piracy In Nigeria’s Waterways 

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Active Marine Surveillance Coast Guard limited, a private security agency, has stated its preparedness to assist the police and other security agencies to check piracy along the nation’s waterways.
Director General of the Security outfit, Commander Godwin Amare, said this during the passing out parade of over 150 members of  the Coast Guard in Port Harcourt.
He said apart from checking piracy, Active Marine Surveillance Coast Guard limited also provides security at jetties across the state and check pollution along the waterways, as well as mount security surveillance across the country.
Amare, however, said his security outfit needs the support of the state and federal governments in the discharge of its functions..
He said with government support, the problem of insecurity will be reduced in the states.
Amare also stressed the need for the government to engage  the outfit in the provision of security in the state, adding that by doing so, government will also be creating employment opportunities for the people.
According to him, it’s men can also be engaged in the provision of security at strategic locations across the state.
He used the occasion to commend the Deputy Director General of the outfit, Captain Dain Elekima Joyfull, as well as  Captain Emberra Michael Niyikpen, and Pastor Anthony Afakwa, for their support.
Speaking, the Rivers State Commissioner of Police, Cp Mustafa Bala, who was represented at the occasion by SP Luka, urged the newly passed out officers of the Civilian joint taskforce and Active Marine Coast Guard limited to be professional in the conduct of their duties.
He also pledged to provide them with the necessary support.
Also speaking, the Rivers State Commandant of the Civilian Joint Taskforce, Commander Richard Akpobari, said his group is prepared to support the security agencies to curb criminalities in the state.
According to him, the situation aims to reduce the burden of providing security in the state.

By: John Bibor

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